THE BIRD BLOG

It is a little premature to be talking about the Eagles 2006 schedule given that the free agency season really hasn't begun in earnest, the dates for the games aren't set, and the draft hasn't happened. We have vague ideas about how good teams will be in 2006, but there is a lot to be determined. Still, it's fun to make a few preliminary notes:

NFC East: Can you believe that the Birds went 0-6 after going 16-2 over the last three seasons? It was a historic collapse and raises some troubling questions about the Eagles prospects for success in 2006. Much of the Eagles success was their ability to clobber the Cowboys, Redskins and G-men. The Eagles went 27-7 against the NFC East from 2000-2004, a .794 winning percentage, against the NFC East. They went 43-35 (.551) against the rest of the NFL during that time frame. Prior to this season the Birds had won nine of ten from the Cowboys, eight of ten from the Redskins and seven of ten from the Giants.

That level of dominance against bitter division rivals has been unprecedented and probably can't be replicated again. Therefore, the fact that all three of these teams defeated the Eagles in 2005 is problematic. Simply put, the Giants, the Redskins and the 'Boys are all better than they have been. Even the Cowboys, a team the Eagles owned since the 41-14 drubbing to open the 2000 season, were vastly better in 2005. A 3-3 record against division foes might happen in '06. I'd say that the Eagles need a 4-2 split to safely win the division and make the playoffs. I just don't see another 5-1 or 6-0 blitz through the division as a possibility.

What team worries me? Probably the Redskins. I like their defensive toughness and their ability to run the ball (always the Eagles Achilles Heel). Their team is aggressive and tough and well-coached. What don't I like? Well, their quaterback situation is more than a little unsettled: I don't think Patrick Ramsey, MarkBrunell or even Jason Williams are the answer to their QB woes. Tampa has a great defensive unit but part of the Redskins anemic offensive performance in the wildcard game was a product of the fact that they are weak at the QB slot. But with a running game like theirs and a tough defense that makes accumulating yards perilously difficult, I think that the Redskins are the best bet to challenge the Eagles. I think the Eagles will have to struggle to win against them in 2006. I'd be happy with a 1-1 split with the 'Skins.

I don't fear the New York Giants. I'm not a fan of Eli Manning: there is a lot of hype out there about him, but I think people see him and think he's the player his brother is. He isn't. He isn't blessed by Peyton's quick release or his ability to see the depth of the game. Eli regressed in '05 and he hadn't made much progress in '04 to begin with. I'm also not a fan of Tom Coughlin: he's not a particularly innovative coach or a particularly smart one. When he led the Jaguars he molded the young club into a contender early on, but his iron grip on the team killed their development. Notice that the team did nothing after they lost the 1999 AFC title game to the Titans. The Jags fell apart after the '99 season, going 19-29 under Coughlin's watch and sliding into mediocrity. A team boasting talent like Jimmy Smith, Mark Brunell and Fred Taylor going 19-29 is stunning. Coughlin's micromanagement stiffled the team's development and killed any chance they had to build a winner in Jacksonville.

Similarly, I see Coughlin doing the same with the Giants. I don't see Jeremy Shockey or Tiki Barber or Michael Strahan graciously accepting Coughlin's dictates. His iron discipline will get old fast. They are a good bet to collapse and finish fourth in '06.

I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. My initial fear of T.O. traveling to Dallas to play with the 'Boys has receded now that the Broncos look to be the front-runners for T.O.'s services. (Fine by me, we don't play them again until 2009.) I think they've got some talent, but they look like a patchwork of veterans Bill Parcells stitched together to make a run at the Super Bowl: Terry Glenn, MeShawn Johnson and Drew Bledsoe. I think they'll be stronger than the G-men, but I see them as an 8-8, third place squad.

Conference foes: This year's rotation matches the Eagles up against the NFC South, probably the strongest division in the NFC, with additional games against the Packers and 49ers. The games against the 'Niners and Saints are virtually gimmies, despite the fact that they are both on the road. I don't see much hope for either team in 2006: the 49ers seem almost permanently mired in rebuilding these days, and the Saints are simply hopeless. These are great matchups for the Eagles to draw.

I'm cautiously optimistic about the Packers too. The team seems in disarray, particularly if Brett Favre calls it quits and packs it in. I see this as the beginning of a period of decline for the Pack: I'm don't think Aaron Rodgers is answer at QB and I think this team needs some help. Add in that this is at home, and this looks like a "W" to me.

The rest of the conference schedule is pretty tough stuff: I think the Panthers will be one of the Eagles biggest games in 2006, particularly if it is late in the season and the two teams are competing for playoff seeding. Add in the fact that the game is in Philly and it could be a potential "must-win" for the regular season. I think the Panthers will really upgrade themselves in the offseason and add some tools to their offense. I think this could be a regular season preview of the 2006 NFC title game.

The Bucs and Falcons are lesser quantities. I like the Bucs and I think they'll be a dangerous team in 2006. I was actually impressed with Chris Simms play at the end of the season and I think Cadillac Williams will be a big-time back in this league for years to come. I'm less threatened by the Falcons, who look like a yo-yo team: up one week, down another. Michael Vick does a great job at times and others he looks frustrated and angry. I just don't think the Falcons will be able to consistently put together a winning drive with him as their QB. Each time people assume that the Falcons are ready to make a statement they falter, and badly. In '03 Vick's injuries ended their season before it began. In '05 his unsteady play doomed the team. In their '02 and '04 playoff losses to the Eagles the Falcons were done in when Vick was held captive.

Simply put, if the Eagles restock their defensive line, I think they'll be effective in corralling Vick. Another variable is when the game will be played: if it is a December game, I bet that the Eagles will have a decisive advantage.

I think the Eagles can win the 'Niners, Saints and Packers games and win two of the three matchups against the Panthers, Bucs and Falcons (two of those three are played at home). So the Non-Division conference games should yield a 4-2 or a 5-1 record.

Non-conference foes: Drawing the AFC South brings up some interesting issues for 2006. Namely, will the Colts still be reeling from their collapse in the playoffs? Will the Jaguars build on '05 and make the playoffs? Are the Titans done rebuilding from salary cap purgatory? What's up with the Texans?

I suspect that the Titans and the Texans will be easy prey for the Birds in 2006. Both of these teams have big issues they need to work out. The Texans have been trying to build towards a winning record for all of their four seasons and don't seem to be making much progress.

I also suspect that the Colts are going to be a shadow of their former selves in 2006. To be dominated so throughly by the Steelers and then blow a golden opportunity to escape with a win? I cannot believe that a team could go 13-0 and then collapse so throughly. This team will be shattered going into next season. I just don't seeing them playing even remotely at their old level. This is a team in decline.

The big team in the AFC South is going to be the Jags. I like Byron Leftwich a lot and I think this team will upgrade their defense a little. In short, I think the Jags will go 12-4 again and win the AFC South in a walk.

We'll know more about the Eagles schedule when the NFL reveals it in the spring. The game against the Carolina Panthers means more if the Panthers are fighting for the playoffs and the game takes place in December than if it is the first game of the year. The Eagles have lost four of their last five season openers, so opening game losses I typically greet with a shrug. It's when the team loses game two that fans should freak out. I'd rather see the NFL schedule the Texans game or the Saints game as Game #2 than the Panthers.

So let's see where we are in a few weeks when we see the NFL schedule. In the here and now I see some games as easy wins (Texans, Saints, Titans, 49ers, Packers), some as tough challenges (Buccaneers, Falcons, Jaguars, Colts) and some as our usual grudge matches ('Boys, 'Skins, G-men). I like the Eagles schedule. I think this team could go 11-5 or so.

Off the subject: I was brousing through the books at Borders the other day and I came across Football Prospectus 2005. Published by the team at Baseball Prospectus, one of the my favorite web sites back when I was a Phillies blogger, the sabremetrics style of analysis was finally applied to football. I was intruiged by their findings and spent several minutes reading. Curious about what they said about the Birds I flipped to the Eagles section and caught this interesting tidbit...

Based on their '04 performance, Prospectus gave the percentages of where they expected the Birds to wind up in '05. There was an 80% chance the team would go 11-5 or better (or it was 12-4 or better, I forget exactly). There was a 1% chance the team would go 5-7 wins. 0% they would go 4-12 or worse. Absent remarkable comebacks in the Chargers and Chiefs games, this team would have been 4-12 in 2005.

That's scary stuff. I put a lot of faith in numbers and I am a big believer in sabremetrics still. The idea that the Eagles had a near-impossible collapse is scary. Will this team bounce back, or is this the prelude to a longer collapse? Food for thought.

I found this article on Yahoo! Sports the other day and I thought it was interesting stuff. Check it out:

He would rise every morning and descend to the basement where an office full of books, translations and lessons waited for Reggie White, his pursuit of knowledge and truth being as ferocious as his running down of quarterbacks.

White, the greatest pass rusher the NFL has ever known, is almost assured on Saturday to be voted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame's Class of 2006, just over 13 months since dying of arrhythmia at the age of 43. His expected enshrinement this August is sure to bring White back into the spotlight, flushing the public with memories of his dominating play on the field and his high-profile Christian preaching off of it. But it will also bring to a controversial light the striking conflict between that man and the one who found what he called his greatest victories down in that basement with his nose in an ancient book.

Ordained at 17, White earned the nickname "The Minister of Defense" in college, but he didn't believe in ministers in his final years. White, who used his considerable fame to preach the Bible, didn't believe in the Bible. White, who had his own church in Tennessee (one that was burned to the ground in a likely hate crime), didn't believe in churches. Oh, he was the same man who believed in living a most wholesome life, of respecting marriage, of respecting life, of a loving family, of being close to his God. He was, by all accounts, more faithful than ever. But in that basement office in his home in Charlotte, N.C., and in repeated trips to Israel, White found a new version of the truth that seemed to humble him, perhaps frighten him, and make him question everything he once thought and so thoroughly believed.

"Reggie was a person who stood on his beliefs," his widow Sara said. "He was a person that was always solid in what he said, that never backed down. What he believed, he said." But what Reggie White believed and said began to change after retiring in 2000. Ever an insatiable learner, he began to question what exactly his Bible was teaching him, how it was written and where it came from. So he poured himself into learning not just Hebrew, but how Hebrew was spoken at the time of Christ. He spent six, seven hours a day studying, and he studied so hard that he could eventually take the original Torah, which is what many believe is the original Word of God, and translate it for himself.

What he found changed everything. What he found, he believed, could change
everything.

Sara White marveled at her husband's passion for the truth. She had known Reggie since college and married him when she was just 21, yet he never ceased to amaze her. Here he was each morning, forsaking celebrity golf outings and easy speaking engagements, to spend hours and hours in solitude painstakingly translating Hebrew.
"He would come upstairs and say, 'Did you know, this, this and this?' " said Sara on Thursday, as the faint afternoon light peaked through the stained glass of the old Mariner's Church in downtown Detroit, where she conducted interviews for a forthcoming DVD about Reggie. "He would teach me what he learned. He found, first off, (that the) King James (Bible) was taken out of context, a lot. A lot of words were added. A lot of words were subtracted.

"He found that in the Torah, in Hebrew, things that may have been taken literal shouldn't have been. Some things that were idioms at that time, today people don't understand those idioms because they were their time. Just like in 40 years, people aren't going to understand our idioms. "(For example) 'I paid an arm and a leg for this shirt.' Guess what, in 40 years they are going to think I paid a literal arm and a literal leg for this shirt. What Reggie understood, and he taught us, is that you have to go back to the way they were living and understand their mindset."

Reggie meticulously translated each word and then put it in context. Sara says he found alarming inaccuracies. Some of it was lost in translations, Hebrew being translated into Greek and then being translated into another language. Some may have been just simple errors, the product of an era before moveable type. Some were not so honest, Reggie White believed. "And so, that was what he was getting to – there were so many mistakes in the translations," said Sara while her sister nodded in agreement. "That is why he was so doggone eager to (translate it himself)."

Each day brought new clarity, new opinions and more dismay that so much of what Reggie had once preached he no longer believed. He began to wonder if he had been used and lied to by ministers. He regretted using his fame to raise so much money for various churches he felt weren't true to God. He felt, he told NFL Films just four days before dying, "prostituted."

"Reggie felt like the churches had become polluted because they were following man's tradition instead of God," Sara said. "We felt like early on, (the) idea (of churches) was right, but then later on it was polluted because now, instead of going with what God was saying, they added to The Word. They added their opinions rather than just reading.

"Now we have preachers preaching their opinion which distorts The Word. It should be (called) opinion churches, or motivational speakers. For our family and for many people who was studying the Torah with us, it created a sense of excitement because now the things we felt uncomfortable (about) in church wasn't our imagination. It was we should have been uncomfortable.

"We should have been uncomfortable with some idols, with some idol worshipping, with people bowing down to the pastor, people putting the pastor on a pedestal." The change in the White home was dramatic. Reggie discarded all athletic awards that included a statue of a football player, since it was a false idol. His kids' Beanie Babies soon followed. The Whites had never celebrated Easter because it is not in the Bible (they observed Passover), but they have eliminated the celebration of Christmas, too. "We all knew the Messiah wasn't born on Christmas Day, December 25. We all knew that was just a representation to celebrate his life," Sara said. "But after we started reading how Christmas came about, with the pagan holiday of the sun solstice, then we stopped celebrating Christmas.

"What (they) were trying to do as a traditional church was satisfy the Christians and give them Christmas. When really, in fact, we are worshipping the solstice, the winter solstice; The Word says, 'Don't do it.' "

Perhaps no professional athlete had evangelized more often or more publicly than Reggie White. During his playing days, he preached at every opportunity. He mentored young players. He spoke out against sin. He even had a habit, after mowing over some opposing offensive lineman, to go back, help him up and say, "Jesus loves you."

When he left the Philadelphia Eagles as a free agent in 1993, he said God influenced his decision to sign with the Green Bay Packers, with whom he won a second Defensive Player of the Year award and a Super Bowl. It is at least some of White's trailblazing that allowed so many Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks to feel comfortable speaking about their faith in the run-up to Sunday's Super Bowl XL. For his entire career, White was the ultimate example of a Christian athlete. He was officially non-denominational, but to Evangelical Christians, he was one of them. "Reggie gave (people) permission to stand on their faith, whatever faith that was," Sara White said. "It's OK for a man to cry. It's OK for a man to pray. It's OK for a man to love his wife. It's OK for a man to say they are not going out on their wife – that it was OK to be moral and not be crazy. "He had changed the perspective of people of what a real man is."

Now, in death, Reggie stands at odds with many Christians. Sara says he even stopped calling himself Christian and preferred to be known as "Believer" after studying the Torah. He eschewed any organized religion, but he held on to most of his same convictions. Reggie's most controversial statement came in 1998 while addressing the Wisconsin Legislature. He declared, "Homosexuality is a decision, it's not a race. People from all different ethnic backgrounds live in this lifestyle. But people from all different ethnic backgrounds also are liars and cheaters and malicious and backstabbing."

There was a major furor. Sara says he never backed down from that stance. "Oh, no, no, no. That didn't change," she said. "Homosexuality wasn't changed. And let me just tell you about our Wisconsin legislators. They were not as bad as people reported them to be. The media tore that up.

"I believe God allowed that to happen to put some thick skin on Reggie because Reggie was hurt by it. Because he was there, he knew what he said, he knew how it was reported and he is very sensitive. But I think God allowed that to give him thicker skin for where he was going to go. Because where he was going to go was much deeper than that."

The thing that makes religion the ultimate hot-button issue is that almost no one wants to admit what they believe and what they've taught and been taught, or how they've taught or been taught, may be wrong. Throughout history, wars have routinely been fought over this.

And that is what makes Reggie White's journey fascinating to some and frightening to others. Here he was, once the most vocal of his kind, now saying he had been duped. The Bible thumper said the Bible was bunk. "Reggie was before his time," Sara said. "People were not ready for Reggie. Pastors were not ready for Reggie. "Pastors were intimidated by Reggie because Reggie knew the truth, and they knew that he knew the truth and they knew a little bit of the truth. But they said their congregation wasn't ready for the truth and they'd lose their congregation. "So what would that lead to? No money in the church."

James Brown, the Fox Sports broadcaster and a close friend of Reggie White, says the player had plans to build a movie studio to make wholesome, family-based shows. Brown said White dreamed of theme parks. Some of White's other friends claim he was planning to take his message big, that he was just getting started.
It isn't difficult to imagine White's Hall of Fame induction being the start of him proselytizing about a new belief, about all those hours in the basement office.
Sara White isn't so sure. Being wrong had scared Reggie like nothing else.
"He was so fearful because he had taught at a mass scale for so much of his life and he felt he wasn't preaching exactly what The Word said because it was polluted," she said. "But Reggie didn't know it was polluted. (I said) 'You were preaching from your heart, from God. This is what you knew.'

"He said he didn't want to take the chance. He wanted to study until he knew everything. I said, 'Reggie, you'll never know everything. But you know everything on this subject, you have been studying this. Just teach this. Teach one thing at a time.' "

But White wasn't ready. And his time ended before he ever was prepared.
Sara White understands some of these beliefs won't be popular. But she also says she and Reggie and so many others are correct. She trusts her late husband's translations. She trusts his faith. And her life is not wrapped up in it. She has children to raise and a career to run. Sara has started a company called "Power of 92" and is selling hats and other items on the website Reggie92.com, with proceeds to help former NFL players who don't receive much from the league pension. There is the work-in-progress DVD. Her son is also writing a book about his father.

She is busy. And now, after 13 tough months, Saturday should bring word that her husband is headed to Canton and a day for a long-awaited celebration. But she knows the spotlight is coming with it. Sara White is not sure what Reggie's old fans will think of what he came to believe before his death. But she isn't hiding it. She is excited that maybe some will question what they have been taught, question their religious institutions and perhaps dedicate themselves to learning Hebrew, the culture of the time and translating The Word themselves.

It is, she believes, one of the good things that can come out of the death of Reggie White. "God," she said with a slight, knowing nod, "had a plan."

I was fascinated to read about Reggie White's religious transformation. Like many people, I simply assumed he was a close-minded Bible Literalist and his statements to the Wisconsin legislature proved that. Reading the article I am impressed that he sought to understand his faith by translating the Torah from original Hebrew. I am impressed by those who seek the truth and question authority at every turn. I seems that Reggie was a seeker, an explorer willing to ask hard questions of his faith and seek an answer to the question of "Why?"

It is sad to see that this facet of his personality only came to light after he passed on. I think people should know that Reggie White wasn't simply an easy to caricaturere Bible Literalist: he was a seeker of truth, someone willing to challenge established orthodoxy. The parallel to Jesus himself, someone who vigorously challenged laws of a corrupt religious establishment in Jerusalem, is uncanny.

I hope that Reggie found the answers he was searching for in the afterlife.

Get ready for some outrage: the initial odds on Super Bowl XLI are out. The Colts, to my surprise, are the odds-on favorite to win at 4/1:

Indianapolis: 4/1
New England: 4/1
Seattle: 5/1
Pittsburgh: 6/1
Carolina: 6/1

Let's start by noting that the Steelers, Panthers and Pats are all good picks.

I'm not so sure about the Seahawks for historical reasons: they played a weak schedule in 2005 and the Super Bowl loser usually falls off dramatically the next year: the '05 Eagles went 6-10, and the '04 Panthers, the '03 Bucs, the '02 Rams, and the '01 Giants all went 7-9. Not a good pick.

I'm amazed that the Colts are the money pick to make it to XLI. Huh? They blew their game against the Steelers in spectacular fashion, Edgerin [sic] James wants out ... this team isn't that talented and it's got a lot of psychological baggage associated with it.

What catches me by surprise is the fact that the Eagles are tied for thirteenth, at 20/1. The fact that the oddsmakers put the Cowboys (10/1), the Giants (15/1), the Bears (15/1), and the Bengals (18/1) as better bets to win the Super Bowl is borderline outrageous. The 'Boys didn't make the playoffs and need help at QB. The G-men are badly overrated. The Bears? The very idea that the Bears are more talented than the Eagles is an insult. The Bengals? Their hopes rest squarely on Carson Palmer's knee. Good luck.

The Eagles tied with the Dolphins and Redskins for 13th. The notion that the Dolphins are just as good a pick for the Super Bowl as the Eagles is ridiculous: they don't have a QB, play in the same division as the Pats, etc. They need a lot of work before they become competitive. The 'Skins have a lot of issues too: can they move the ball without running? I don't think so.

I hope these sort of rankings provoke a lot of anger with the Eagles. Just one year removed from the Super Bowl and four consecutive division titles / NFC title games, this team has no respect whatsoever. Nobody believes in them. Nobody fears them. Everyone assumes that Donovan's best days are behind him and that the Birds are finished.

Bull----. Get angry people! Click here to read the rankings for yourself.

... on ESPN.com about the blown calls in the Super Bowl.

Today is the day after the Super Bowl and while Steelers fans are busy sleeping off their collective hangovers, the rest of the NFL can wake up with the fact that today is the first day of the offseason. Time to retool and rearm for 2006.

More later.

I watched McNabb's interview with ESPN about the 2005 season and T.O.'s meltdown with the team. I'm not surprised by the tone of Donovan's response: pleasant, upbeat, water-off-my-back kind of attitude. He's such a calm person and his nothing-bothers-me attitude has really given him the tools to survive in Philadelphia. Who else would have shrugged Draft Day booing off? Who else could have lasted as long through so much adversity like the team's 0-2 start in '03?

The racial component is obviously the big, thorny issue here: McNabb likened T.O.'s comments to being a "black-on-black" crime, and obviously is burned up that the NAACP tried to interject itself by criticizing him for not running more. I happen to agree with him: it is a stupid charge to level at him because he was obviously injured last year and has refined his game. Donovan ran a lot during the 2000 season because they didn't have any sort of a running game at all. Over time the team has come to rely more on Donovan's arm rather than his legs, so whatever he can do to preserve his health is a smart decision. Remember: Donovan was injured when he ran in '02 against the Cards and missed six games.

I thought one thing of interest was that McNabb believed that the rift between them started during the 2004 season against the Giants when McNabb barked at T.O. to get back into the huddle after an incomplete pass and then spread onward. The idea that the rift began in '04 supports the idea that the addition of T.O. killed the team's chemistry from the start, and that the team was talented enough on its own to make the Super Bowl in 2004. The team won, in short, despite T.O., not because of him.

The clearest thing from Donovan's interview is the fact that the team needs an overhaul and that there are big problems out there. Key players on the team- Jevon Kearse, Jeremiah Trotter -lobbied for T.O. These guys can't be gotten rid of or replaced. The possibility that the team will remain divided well into 2006 and beyond is a definate possibility. Donovan needs to take control of the team again.

If he doesn't then the ghost of T.O. will haunt this team forever.