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Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Running the Gauntlet 

Just a quick word on the Eagles game today ….

What a commanding performance by the Eagles. It was one of those games where you’d have to say that the Eagles simply took it straight to the Cowboys and hammered them into submission. The Gauntlet, the impenetrable path of three consecutive games road against NFC East foes that people forecast in the preseason would be the Eagles sternest test and their likely undoing, turned into the best part of the season for the Birds. At 9-6 they are flying high, with a playoff berth in hand, and a division title in their mind’s eye.

The Eagles rushed for 204 yards on the ground, the most a Cowboys foe has accomplished in Big D since 2000. It was Brian Westbrook’s sixth 100+ yard rushing game of the season and got him to 1,214 yards on the ground, along with 76 catches for 670 yards through the air. How is he not going to the Pro Bowl?

The Eagles defense was once more the star of the game for the Eagles: flying around, hitting Tony Romo, they took T.O. out of the game and handcuffed the Cowboys offense, which managed a mere 201 yards of offense and turned the ball over three times. T.O. and Terry Glenn managed a total of three catches for 40 yards. That’s it.

Then there is the big goal-line stand where the Eagles turned the Cowboys and Marion Barber away three times from the one-yard line. (Barber: three rushes, three yards lost.) That was where the game was decided. Once the Cowboys blew their opportunity the Eagles never looked back.

-Since 2000, when the Eagles current era began with the Eagles 41-13 win over the Cowboys on the opening day of the season, the Eagles are 11-3* against the Cowboys. This major rivalry has become decidedly one-sided of late.

* And two of those wins were in 2005.

-This game was the best Christmas present that Eagles fans could have been given, but then T.O. made it a Happy Hanukkah by his post-game “I need to get the ball more” speech. It was inevitable it was going to happen and I think this game sealed T.O.’s fate in Big D: he’ll be gone because Bill Parcells doesn’t have time to deal with babies making millions of bucks. Say goodbye to T.O., Cowboys fans: he’s headed outta town.

Now the Eagles are assured of a few things:

-They are in the playoffs.
-They will be no worse than the fifth seed in the playoffs.
-They can win the division and be the third seed if they beat the reeling Falcons or if the Cowboys lose to the Lions.

The Eagles get the #3 seed along with the division, which would put them on a collision course with the Giants for the playoffs, a team that has “one-and-done” written all over it. I assume that the Giants will pull it together and beat the Redskins Saturday night to clinch the playoff berth. If they don’t, then the smart money is on the Packers, a team that the Eagles have owned of late, to make it. I’d put money on the Giants, losers of six of their last seven games, to be the Eagles round one foe. Be nice to avenge that week two loss, ‘eh?

More next week once we know where people are playing in January. Every have a Happy New Year’s! I’ll post tomorrow and Thursday at A Citizens Blog.

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Monday, December 18, 2006

161 

That is how many yards of rushing the Eagles had in yesterday’s 36-22 win over the hated New York Giants, probably the most satisfying win the Eagles have had since they beat the Dallas Cowboys back in October. With the victory the Eagles go to 8-6 and assume a commanding position in the NFC playoff picture.

First thoughts on the game:

Garcia is now 3-1 as the Eagles starter and I feel guilty for calling for A.J. Feeley to assume the reins. Andy Reid made the right call by putting Garcia in there. He’s done a nice job as the Eagles QB and seems nothing like the guy who sucked things up in Detroit and Cleveland the last two years: quiet, timid and unhappy. Jeff Garcia circa 2006 seems like a firey competitor, a guy who burns to win. You can bet he’ll be fired up on Xmas Day to face off with his old nemesis, T.O. Aside from that foolish spike and the subsequent pick, Garcia played a very, very nice game yesterday, riddling the Giants defense with quick passes, hitting on 19-of-28 for 237 yards and a TD.

On the ground the Eagles did a really nice job. Maybe they didn’t look like Nebraska, circa 1997, but they ran the ball effectively and controlled the clock nicely. The Eagles ran for 161 yards on 30 carries, generally exploiting the inexperienced Giants D-line all game long. Here is how the Eagles backs did:

Rushes / Yards / TDs
Westbrook: 19 / 97 / 2
Buckhalter: 8 / 48 / 1
Garcia: 3 / 16 / 0

In particular I thought the Eagles first TD was pure brilliance: setting Buckhalter and Westbrook in the backfield, faking a toss to the right to Westbrook, then handing the ball to Buckhalter on what amounted to a dive up the middle. The Giants defense was totally fooled and Buckhalter scored on an easy play.

On the defensive side of the ball the Eagles forced four turnovers, the biggest one being Sheldon Brown’s blitz which popped the ball into the air and was returned by Trent Cole for a TD to seal the game. Eli Manning looked dazed and confused, battered and bruised. After the initial drive of the game, where the Giants scored a Tiki Barber TD, the Giants offense looked flat and out of it.

In the matchup of coaching wits between Andy Reid and Tom Coughlin, it was no contest: Coughlin, the harsh and unimaginative disciplinarian, was utterly unable to match wits with the cunning Reid and the rest of the Eagles imaginative staff. Watching the Giants reminded me of Steve Spurrier’s Redskins: for all of the hype about Spurrier’s genius, he was a very unimaginative coach who stuck with a few basic ideas and never innovated or thought outside of the box. (e.g., Spurrier never spent time discussing blocking schemes with his coaches, instead telling them during their team meeting to “Block ‘em up. Block ‘em up good!”). Coughlin looked lost and confused about how to deal with the Eagles blitzes. Andy Reid and the Eagles were 4-0 against the ‘ol ball coach, so I hope Coughlin stays around as the G-men’s coach.

Alright, let’s look at the playoff picture. Let’s start low and talk about the wildcard. The following teams cannot beat the Eagles for a playoff slot:

-St. Louis: even if the Rams tie the Eagles at 8-8, the Eagles have a better conference record.
-San Francisco: even if the 49ers tie the Eagles at 8-8, the Eagles beat them in the regular season and thus own the tiebreaker.
-Carolina: ditto above.
-Green Bay: ditto again.

Which leaves the Eagles with three adversaries for the wildcard: the Vikings, the Falcons and the Giants.

-The 7-7 Falcons will play the Eagles in the season finale, so we’ll see if that becomes an issue, although the Falcons can really hurt themselves with a loss to the Carolina Panthers next week.

-The 7-7 Giants still have a shot, although if the Eagles beat the Cowboys on Christmas Day, the Eagles own a tiebreaker on the G-men: even if the teams tie at 9-7, the Eagles would own a 5-1 record vs. the NFC East and the G-men would be 4-2.

-The 6-8 Vikings have an outside shot at the Eagles if they win both of their games and the Eagles lose both of theirs.

Chances are that the Eagles will oust at least two of those teams and make one of the two wildcards.

The other issue is the NFC East, which is still up for grabs. If the Eagles win out, they’d take the NFC East thanks to sweeping the season series against the Cowboys. I guess we’ll see ….

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Monday, December 11, 2006

Dawk Did It! 

The Eagles 21-19 victory over the Washington Redskins was a big, big win for the team as they continue on their unlikely march towards the playoffs. As I write this the Eagles are 7-6 and in the thick of the playoff hunt. What a difference a year makes, as last season’s Eagles team finished 6-10 and were pretty much instantly done with the playoffs after Donovan McNabb went down.

First let’s talk about yesterday’s game. Let’s credit the defense for this victory: okay, they allowed the Redskins to rush for 210 yards. The ‘Skins also converted on 7 of 16 third downs and had a total of 20 first downs in the game. Not great numbers, but the Eagles offense did little to help them. This was a victory for the D: they forced two turnovers to set up Eagles TDs, and they held the Redskins to just 19 points. Two plays in particular were huge:

-Michael Lewis’ 84-yard interception return for a touchdown in the second quarter, a play which gave the Eagles a 14-3 lead at a juncture where the Redskins were on the Eagles 23-yard line and were threatening to make it a 7-6 game or to surge ahead 10-7. The air seemed to go out of the Redskins after that. On the next drive the Redskins committed 15 yards of penalties and backed themselves into a 1st-and-25, which ended in a punt that Reno Mahe muffed. However the Redskins were too dazed and shaken to take advantage and ended up punting. On the next drive the Eagles made it a 21-3 game.

-The biggest play of the game was Brian Dawkins sack of Jason Campbell with a little over five minutes left in the game. Leading 21-16, the Eagles were trying to hold onto the lead when the Redskins took the ball on their own 15 and proceeded to drive down to the Eagles three yard line, bleeding over five minutes from the game clock. Down on the three the Eagles stiffened up and the Redskins imploded, netting zero yards on the next two plays, then committing a five yard penalty to make a 1st-and-Goal from the three into a 3rd-and-Goal on the eight. On the ensuing play Brian Dawkins knifed in and made a terrific sack of Campbell, forcing the Redskins to settle for the field goal and miss an opportunity to assume a 22-21 lead. The Eagles got the ball back and ran out the clock on some nifty plays.

Westbrook’s twelve yard scamper on 2nd-and-7 sealed the Eagles victory, as the clock wound to the two minute warning, and then the Redskins were powerless to stop it.

-A good game from Garcia, although the Eagles offensive unit vanished for big stretches of the game: 60 of Reggie Brown’s 73 yards came on one play. Donte Stallworth caught a TD, but only 31 yards on three catches. Westbrook was once more the Eagles best player: touching the ball 20 times and accumulating 126 yards of total offense.

-Okay, let’s start looking ahead … Last night’s 42-17 humiliation for the Cowboys at the hands of the New Orleans Saints makes the playoff race much, much more exciting. First off, the Cowboys looked like a shell of the team that has been dominating the NFC ever since Tony Romo took the reins in week 7 during their 36-22 loss to the New York Giants. The loss drops the ‘Boys to 8-5 and pretty much sinks any chance they had at a first round bye. With the 9-4 Saints playing the Redskins, Giants and slumping Panthers, and the 10-2 Bears playing games against the Packers, Lions, Rams and Buccaneers, I don’t see how the ‘Boys can be better than a three seed. And even there the ‘Boys have a problem: the Seahawks have three games left, two are against the 49ers and Buccaneers, two likely wins. If they can survive the Chargers, or if the ‘Boys lose another game, the Seahawks will likely take the three and push the ‘Boys to fourth.

-Okay, another issue I want to bring up is the NFC East title. The Eagles could still win it.

Impossible? No. If the Eagles defeat the Giants next week and then pull the upset on Christmas Day in Dallas, then finish the season with a win over Michael Vick and the Falcons, the Eagles will be 10-6. Let’s assume that the Cowboys will likewise win next week against the Falcons, and then will finish the year with a win over the Lions after losing on Xmas day. The Eagles and ‘Boys finish the year 10-6 each, but the Eagles own the NFC East by virtue of their sweep of the season series.

I’ll grant you that this is not a likely scenario, but it is possible. The Cowboys looked awful in yesterday’s game, nothing like the team that had gone 5-2 under Romo. The Saints looked like they could do whatever they wanted to the Saints, rolling up 28 first downs and 536 yards of offense. It was a humiliating performance and the 42-17 score isn’t even indicative of what the margin of victory really was: T.O.’s 34-yard TD in the third quarter was a fluke, the product of the ball flying thru the hands of a Saints defender and into T.O.’s surprised hands. Instead of an interception, the Cowboys had a touchdown. Fluke. Then the Saints scored a touchdown, recovered an on-side kick and jammed another TD down the ‘Boys throats. It was a humiliating game for a team that had gotten cocky.

-I am sure that Giants fans are probably busy blowing their 27-13 win over a slumping Carolina Panthers game well out of proportion as it helped them break a humiliating four-game losing streak. I say BFD: the Panthers were slumping out of the playoff race thanks to the Eagles win over them last weekend. All the Giants did was get some sloppy seconds.

-The NFC playoff picture looks like this: basically the Bears, Seahawks and Saints have their divisions locked up. The Cowboys control their own destiny, but look vulnerable. The Eagles and the Giants can catch the Cowboys for the NFC East, but they are both likely shooting for the wildcard. The wildcard is basically a three-team race between the Giants, Eagles, and Falcons. Forget the Panthers, they are finished mentally. The Vikes have a shot, but must walk a tough road: next week vs. the Jets, then games against the Packers and Rams. Sure they could win ‘em, but they are 6-7, need help and they don’t play a fellow competitor. The Falcons play the Cowboys and Eagles down the stretch, so they are more of the threat. Saturday’s Falcons-Cowboys game has very, very big playoff implications.

I think the playoff picture will shake out as:

NFC North: Chicago (#1)
NFC South: New Orleans (#2)
NFC West: Seattle (#3)
NFC East: Dallas (#4)
Wildcards: Eagles (#5), Falcons (#6)

-Over on the AFC side … The Chargers look like a lock to own home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Sure, they have some tough games (Kansas City, Seattle and Arizona) on the schedule, but they control their own destiny and have been playing great football, plus their last two games are non-conference. Did you know that the Chargers only two losses have both been by 3 points? 16-13 at the Ravens and 30-27 at the Chiefs … Despite their recent foibles, it looks like the Colts will win the AFC South … What the heck happened to the Patriots? 21-0 loss to the Dolphins? … I think the AFC division winners are basically set. Sure, the Patriots, Ravens, and Colts all could lose, but that isn’t likely at all. The AFC playoffs are basically a massive wildcard scramble. I think the Jaguars are in a good spot, so I think the race is basically a chase. Can the Bengals hold off the Broncos, Chiefs and Jets? While I like the Bengals and I respect the fact that they have won four in a row since losing five of six games, they have a tough road: Colts, Patriots and Steelers. Good luck. The Broncos have a nice chance, partly thanks to the fact that they get to play the Bengals and take their destiny into their own hands. But I really like the Jets: Minnesota, Miami and Oakland? Those are three W’s. I think the AFC playoff picture will shake out as:

AFC West: San Diego (#1)
AFC North: Baltimore (#2)
AFC East: New England (#3)
AFC South: Indy (#4)
Wildcards: Jacksonville (#5), N.Y. Jets (#6)

Sunday, Eagles and Giants. I predict a 24-17 Eagles victory in the wilds of northern New Jersey, with the Eagles harassing Eli Manning all game long. Poor Eli. He plays like he can hear all of the Giants fans asking the same question his father probably did when he was growing up: “Why can’t you be like your brother?” Peyton Manning might come up short in big moments, but Eli comes up short in big ones and in small ones. Jim Johnson toys with Eli and the Eagles win.

Anyway, enjoy. I expect to post something on my Phillies blog later today.

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Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Miracle @ the Linc 

As I watched last night’s Eagles-Panthers game I allowed a thought to creep into my head: “The Eagles might just win this game.”

Shocking, I know. I see that just 16% of Yahoo! Sports Pick ‘em users picked the Eagles to win this game. I don’t blame them: if I were betting I’d have money on Carolina. No McNabb, having lost five of their last six games, facing a team desperately trying to get back into the playoff mix … No way the Eagles could win, I thought.

Final score, Eagles 27-24. Suddenly the Eagles season doesn’t look so grim?

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. First, let’s talk about the game:

How did the Eagles win? By winning the turnover battle: allowing no turnovers while forcing two big ones late in the game for the Panthers. The Eagles also did a nice job containing Carolina’s ground game and forcing the inconsistent Jake Delhomme to take to the air and try to win it. Delhomme won the game for the Birds on his picks.

-Yes, MeShawn Johnson and Steve Smith played nice games, catching a total of eight passes for 119 yards and two TDs, but they were out-played by the Eagles duo of Reggie Brown and Donte Stallworth, who caught nine passes for 190 yards and two TDs. For the first time since they played the Redskins, Stallworth had a big game, and Brown has been nearly invisible for weeks.

-Nice to see the Eagles get some yardage out of the run game, rushing for 98 yards.

-Garcia played a pretty amazing game. I had called for A.J. Feeley to jump into the fray over Garcia, but I was wrong. Garcia has generally played well thus far this season in McNabb’s relief. Yesterday he threw for 312 yards, 3 TDs and no picks. So far this season he’s thrown for 641 yards and six TDs without a pick.

-Give enormous credit to the Eagles defense, which has been much maligned of late. The Eagles D forced the Panthers to go three-and-out six times, and on three of those drives the Carolina offense lost yards. Even though they did not sack Delhomme, they got pressure and forced him to make mistakes. Well done.

-So where does this leave the Eagles in terms of the playoff hunt? Well, despite how badly the Eagles have been playing, despite how much they have struggled … if the 2006 regular season were to end today, the Eagles would back in as the #6 seed. And the Eagles would probably play the Cowboys.

The fact that the Eagles are still in the playoff race is extraordinary. I figured that the Eagles would limp to a 6-10 finish like they did in 2005, and wouldn’t matter at all in the playoff picture. Happily, they are very much in the mix right now, one of four 6-6 teams dueling for a wildcard slot. The best thing about that is that they now own a tie-breaker on the Panthers thanks to last night. They play the Giants again and could gain that edge on them by beating them in two weeks. Finally, the Falcons play the Eagles on New Year’s Eve and that could decide who gets to go to the playoffs.

The Eagles actually stand a decent chance of making the playoffs, but the key is going to be winning their next game against the Washington Redskins. It will not be easy. It will be the first of three road games, against a foe desperately trying to save face with the end of the season fast-approaching. (Oh, and a victory over the Redskins would assure that the Eagles don’t finish fourth.) Against a foe that likes to run the ball and against a coach that has success against the Birds.

But if the Eagles win and carry that momentum into their game against the Giants, suddenly the post-season looks like a real possibility, because the Eagles can beat Michael Vick and the Falcons. Suddenly 8-8 or 9-7 looks like a real possibility. We’ll see.

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