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Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Empty or Full? 

As I watched the seconds bleed off the clock on the Eagles 27-24 loss to the New Orleans Saints on Saturday night I began to ruminate on the Eagles season. Over the last few seasons we’ve been able to unequivicably state that a season was a success or a failure. 2001? Big success. The Eagles went to the NFC title game and nearly upset the mighty St. Louis Rams. 2003? Failure. The Eagles should have beaten the Carolina Panthers in their third consecutive NFC title game loss. 2004? Success. The Eagles went a franchise best 13-3 and went to the Super Bowl. 2005? Failure. A Super Bowl-quality team went 6-10 and was divided between McNabb and T.O.

What about 2006, I wondered. Success or failure? If you are a glass-half empty sort of guy you can hark back to McNabb’s belief that the Eagles could go 13-3 and make Super Bowl XLI and say that the season was a failure because they were three wins worse in the regular season and didn't make the Super Bowl. If you are glass-half full, you’d look at the fact that the Eagles made the playoffs at all after McNabb and Jevon Kearse were lost for the season and actually came within an ace of making their fifth NFC title game in six years. I’m sort of torn.

Yes, the Eagles struggled a lot in 2006. McNabb was alternatively brilliant, slinging the ball down field, seemingly making the Eagles look like the 1999 Rams and their Max-Q offense, and alternatively terrible, playing the Eagles into a hole in the game against the Buccaneers and blowing a huge lead to the Giants. If McNabb hadn’t gone down it is an open question as to whether or not the Eagles would have gone 5-1 and made the playoffs.

On the other hand, McNabb might have thrown for near-40 TD passes and been a factor in the MVP race. We’ll never know.

Generally, I think the year was a triumph. The Eagles lost Jevon Kearse and still played great defense. They lost McNabb and seemingly re-discovered their running game. Yes, they lost to the Saints, but they won the NFC East after everyone gave them up for dead and won three consecutive road games against the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys, something NOBODY said they could do at the outset of the season.

The Saints game wasn’t perfect at all. The offense, not the defense, lost the game with its slow start in the first half, then by botching opportunities to score … specifically I am thinking of the Eagles Second-and-One inside the five yard line that ended up being a field goal to make the game 27-24 instead of a touchdown to put the Eagles ahead 28-27, and the Eagles failure to score after recovering Reggie Bush’s late fumble. Should Andy Reid have gone for it on Fourth-and-fifteen? I say yes, but I understand the argument the other way: the Eagles did convert the play before and what were the chances of capturing lightning in the bottle again? Put it in the hands of your defense and play for the field goal later. I would have gone for it, but that’s a 50%-50% call.

I was deeply impressed by the Saints. This is not the old Aints of the past. This was an aggressive, well-coached team that has a lot of weapons. I think the Eagles D did a great, great job of keeping the Saints to 27 points. That could have been much, much worse. They were aggressive, forced Drew Brees to make bad throws and did a good job keeping the Saints bottled up. Sure the Saints ran the ball well, but the Eagles will always surrender rushing yards as opposed to big plays.

So now the Eagles move on. Free agency time, draft time. Planning for 2007. I personally think the Birds are well-positioned for 2007. McNabb will be back and hungrier than ever. I suspect that the Eagles will keep Jeff Garcia as their backup, which means if McNabb isn’t ready they’ll have a great QB waiting in the wings and they will have a great leader in the locker room. The offensive line is great and the Eagles skill players are second-to-none. They just need a little depth at running back and tight end. On the defensive side of the ball the Eagles will get Kearse back and seem to be improving in their linebacking corps. Some depth there in the draft and the Eagles will be fine. Kicker? David Akers. The Birds are loaded. They need some depth in the draft and they’ll be fine.

What will the NFC East look like? The Redskins are Jason Campbell’s team now and I am very skeptical about his abilities. Joe Gibbs seems tired and worn out. The Redskins will be lucky to get to 8-8. The Cowboys? Tony Romo looked very beatable late in the season and we’ll have to see how his botched hold will affect his mental state in 2007. That, and Bill Parcells will have to deal with the T.O. problem again. 2007 won’t be a good season for the ‘Boys and T.O. will drive Parcells to early retirement. The Giants? The less said the better: Tom Coughlin is a terrible coach and Eli Manning is a bust at QB. This team has 5-11 written all over it. The Eagles get a nice schedule too, with games against the offensively-challenged Bears, the inept Lions, the rebuilding Packers and the wildcard Vikings on the horizon. The Seahawks? Shell of the team they were in 2005. Add in games against the AFC East (Miami? Buffalo? East W’s) and the Birds are in good for ’07. This team could go 13-3 in '07.

As for the NFL playoffs, let me just say that I am stunned that the Patriots beat the Chargers Sunday. With the Eagles gone, I am turning my support to the Patriots. Brady and Belichick are brilliant competitors and have an opportunity to equal the mark the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers made when they won four Super Bowls in six years. The Patriots could do so with a win in Super Bowl XLI, which would mark the Patriots as perhaps the greatest dynasty in NFL history, better than the ‘60s Packers, better than the ‘70s Steelers, better than the ‘80s-‘90s 49ers, greater than the ‘90s Cowboys. To win four titles in the free agency period with vastly different teams in a short time period … I defy anyone to name a greater team.

Predictions:

-NFC: The Saints win a blow-out, 34-10 in Chicago over the Bears. The Saints are too explosive and have too many weapons.

-AFC: The Patriots over the Colts 31-28 in Indy. The Patriots mastery of Peyton Manning continues, but the decisive factor will be the Patriots offense ability to run on the Colts defense, the first team to do that this off-season.

See everyone next Monday!

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Monday, January 08, 2007

Grudge Match 

It was a grudge match, it was a dog fight, it was everything you’d expect an NFC East football game would be. In the end, the Philadelphia Eagles were tougher, grittier, nastier than their enemy. That is the reason why the Eagles defeated the New York Giants 23-20 yesterday in a game that cause me to shout: “Come on!!!!” about thirty times at the television. A few thoughts:

The MVP of the Eagles win was Brian Westbrook. Twenty carries, 141 yards and a TD. Westbrook didn’t catch many passes (just two catches for twelve yards) and his big punt return for a TD was knocked out by a penalty, but he was electric on the ground and had three key plays in the game:

-His 49-yard TD run in the second half on 2nd-and-1 to give the Eagles their first score of the game.
-Westbrook’s eleven yard run on the first play of the Eagles final possession, which moved the Eagles to mid-field and gave them plenty of time to milk the clock and still be confident of moving the ball into position.
-Finally, Westbrook’s thirteen yard run to the Giants nineteen yard line to set up the game-winner. It was a great run by Westbrook, who turned up the field and hit the afterburners once he saw a gap.

Without those runs, the Eagles would not have emerged victorious.

Garcia and the Eagles offense played a pretty so-so game, although to be fair, much of their poor play was a product of horrible field position in the first quarter, which was not entirely their fault. A well-placed kick by the Giants that Reno Mahe realized he couldn’t take a chance on resulted in horrible field position for the Eagles. The Birds started four of their next drives in their own Red Zone. Hard to get much of anything going when you start on your own 9, 20, 2 and 16 yard lines.

After Westbrook the Eagles stand-out performer was Reggie Brown, who played spectacularly well, catching 7 passes for 73 yards. Brown’s catches were tough ones that extended Eagles drives. Great, great performance for Reggie.

The Eagles had more yards rushing (185) than passing (138 net) for probably the first time all season. Probably years. I loved the fact that the Eagles run-pass ratio was 1:1. As long as Andy leaves the play-calling up to Morty, the Eagles are set.

The Eagles D played well and kept the Giants offense shackled for much of the game in the middle. What saved the game for the Eagles was when the defense stood up during the first quarter and held the Giants to one first down in three possessions when the Giants got the ball at the Eagles 49, their own 48, then the Eagles 46 again. To get the ball on your foe’s side of the field and botch three opportunities to work with a short field is inexcusable.

Generally speaking I wasn’t impressed by the Giants. For all of their terrific field position and momentum at the outset of the game, they played like crap until the end of the fourth quarter. Eli’s pick was a disaster, a pass he was basically trying to force into double-coverage. Tiki Barber and Plaxico Burress burned the Eagles for big plays, especially at the start and end, but in the middle the Giants looked like their usual selves, tepidly trying to figure out if they should run or pass, not sure. Add in the bone-headed penalties, and this Giants team was a mess. I personally hope that Tom Coughlin comes back next season as the Giants coach because this guy made a mess of a talented team.

On to the rest of the playoffs...

-The Patriots played pretty commanding football against the Jets. In fact they played like the Patriots of old, grinding out a close lead and then capitalizing on late mistakes to blow the game wide-open. I thought that the Chargers would easily beat the Pats, but now I am not so sure.

Meanwhile, the Colts didn’t play as badly as the Chiefs and hold on for a 23-8 win over KC in a pretty uninspired game that – frankly – did not hold my attention on Saturday.

The Cowboys laughable botched field goal in Seattle did and left my jumping for joy. Anyone notice that the 21-20 final was the same score as the 1996 Monday Night Football game were the Eagles to the Cowboys lost on a botched hold on a field goal? Weird.

-Predictions. Well, the Ravens and Colts looks like an easy call. Unless Peyton Manning and the Colts can reverse years of lousy playoff performances, I suspect that Manning will struggle against the Ravens nasty, aggressive defense. The Ravens will score a defensive touchdown or two. Call it Ravens 27, Colts 10.

The Patriots and Chargers will be an interesting game. Can Bill Belichick devise a way to keep DaLanian Tomlinson in check? If anyone can, he can. I am going to go with the Chargers on the basis that they are a young team, an aggressive team defensively, and they are playing at home. But I think it is going to be a razor-thin game: Chargers 28, Patriots 27.

The Bears and the Seahawks. Sure Rex Grossman has played bad football in the second half, but Seattle isn’t much better. They look like a shell of the team that won the NFC title last year. Well, someone has to win it. It might as well be a … 13-10 Bears victory. Yawn.

Eagles and Saints? Well, it will be a tight game to be sure. I think the Eagles will be enough motivation to want to avenge the regular season’s 27-24 loss and pull out a 31-27 win at the end next Saturday night. On to the fifth NFC title game in six years for the Birds.

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Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Hello 2007 

Well, I just got back from New Year’s break and I haven’t a whole lot of thoughts at the moment on the Phillies ... or the Eagles right now. Today’s post will just be a stream-of-consciousness thing …

-I went to Sunday’s Eagles – Falcons game at the Linc. Despite the Eagles first-teamers being removed once the Lions clinched the NFC East for the Birds with their miraculous 39-31 win over the Cowboys, I had a terrific time (first ever time at the Linc) and I got to see a great game as the Eagles won 24-17. The Eagles defense was fast and aggressive and the offense really moved the ball well through the air. Hank Baskett’s 89-yard TD pass was a thing of beauty.

As this was my first game at the Linc I want to note what a major, major improvement it was over the Vet: despite sitting high in Section 243, near the top of the stadium, I still had a great view of the action and got to see every little detail. I love that place.

-USC’s 32-18 victory over Michigan in the Rose Bowl hopefully shut the BCS rematch proponents up: Michigan had their chance and they blew it. Yet another Big Ten team stumbled and fell. Sad.

-I was overjoyed by Boise State’s 43-42 win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. For the second time in three years (see, Utah, circa 2004), a small-time school blitzed through their season undefeated, played a good time in a big bowl, and won’t get the National Title. Disgrace. Boise State played a great game and humiliated everyone who said that Oklahoma was a lock to win. If Florida beats Ohio State, will someone explain why Boise State won’t be the National Champ?

-Speaking of disgrace: Notre Dame plays LSU in the Sugar Bowl tonight. Prediction: LSU 38-14. Notre Dame is a joke, their record this season built on smoke and mirrors. They lost the only games of significance on their schedule (USC and Michigan), and they beat a slew of lousy teams on their way there.

-Anyone else notice that the Big East is 3-0 in the Bowls?

-Some good games coming up this weekend. I like Kansas City over Indy 31-24. Sure K.C. has struggled a little this season, but the Colts are horrible against the run and the Chiefs are going to pound them with Larry Johnson all game long. See ya next year, Peyton Manning. Sunday night I see the Cowboys knocking off the Seahawks 21-20. New England over the New York Jets 17-10 in what will probably be the weekend’s best game. Finally, I like the Eagles to beat the Giants 27-13 on Sunday to earn the right to go to New Orleans and play the Saints.

-A few thoughts on the NFL: That final weekend to the season was a stunner. I cannot believe that the Broncos, Bengals and the Jaguars all missed out on the playoffs. I hope there is some hell to pay in each town because none of those three teams should have missed out. Over in Atlanta, Michael Vick continues to frustrate those who said things about him being the “Michael Jordan of football”. He’s a flashy player who screws up. A lot. He’s not consistent.

-Well, with Barry Zito finding a home in SF, the 2006-2007 free agency period comes to an end. I think it turned out well for the Phillies: they added two new starters to the rotation, got a third baseman, and avoided stupid mistakes like playing Carlos Lee $100 million bucks. Small miracles.

Back to regularly scheduled programming tomorrow.

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