THE BIRD BLOG

Possibly according to the AP. Personally I'd love it if it were true. Consider:

1. The Broncos are an AFC team and we won't see them again until 2009.

2. Mike Shanahan is desperate enough to win he might sign T.O. to a long-term deal, thus avoiding the "rent T.O." scenario where we'd see him poppoing up each year, a mercenary-for-hire trying to mess with the Eagles.

I tend to think this might happen, but the Cowboys option is still more likely. Stay tuned.

Most Eagles fans remember the sight of the Eagles WRs getting man-handled in the '03 NFC title game against Carolina, brutalized each time they tried to make something happen with the ball. Without a viable target to throw to, McNabb went 10-for-22, 100 yards and 3 picks.

The game made a tremendous impact on the Eagles high command. In the offseason they pursued T.O. and brought him on-board. From a team reluctant to spend or acquire high-profile free agents, the move really sent shockwaves around the NFL. The signing of Jevon Kearse, the biggest move made by any NFL team that off-season otherwise, went almost entirely unnoticed.
T.O. had a big impact on the production from the Eagles WR corps. Scope out the numbers:

2003 / 2004 / 2005
Rec.: 127 / 155 / 161
Yards: 1,728 / 2,460 / 2,250
TDs: 5 / 17 / 12
Avg.: 13.61 / 15.87 / 13.97

Simply put, the impact of T.O. on the Eagles offense was tremendous in 2004. The Eagles WRs were gaining nearly two yards a catch extra, added almost fifty yards a game, and more than tripled their number of touchdowns. While the numbers for 2005 don't seem quite as bad, I should note that T.O. was on-pace for a monster season prior to his suspension: he actually led all Eagles WRs in yards despite playing in just 7 of 16 games, had just one fewer catch than Greg Lewis (48 to 47) and scored half of the Eagles WR's TDs (6). Without T.O., the Eagles WRs drop to just 114 catches, 1,487 yards, 6 TDs and just 13.04 yards-per-catch.

None of this augers well for 2006, when the Eagles will be without T.O. again. Will the Eagles go back to the stone-handed, easily intimidated crew that gave McNabb few options to work with during his first few years?

Here are the Eagles 2006 WRs:

Reggie Brown. The Eagles second-rounder out of Georgia had a decent rookie season in 2005: 43 catches, 571 yards and 4 TDs, 13.28 avg. The Eagles brass have said that they intend for Reggie to be T.O.'s successor as the Eagles No. 1 wideout, and the future is now in 2006. Interestingly, Reggie really seemed to have stepped up after T.O. was suspended from the team: prior to T.O.'s suspension: 9 catches, 108 yards, 0 TD; post-suspension: 34 catches, 461 yards, 4 TD's. Impressive.

I'm personally not sold on the idea that Reggie can take over for T.O. as No. 1. For one thing, he's a good thirty pounds lighter than T.O. Reggie seems more like Greg Lewis or Todd Pinkston in terms of his body type. Reggie could be a decent No. 1 (and certainly his performance after T.O. suggests he'll do well, especially considering the fact that the team was playing without its big guns left), but he strikes me as a classic No. 2 wideout.

Prediction for 2006: 55 catches, 800 yards, 6-10 TDs.

Greg Lewis. I think Greg Lewis has a lot of talent and I'm intruiged to see what he'll do in 2006 with the Birds. The undrafted wideout from Illinois has performed well for the team, but he's clearly not a top-flight, No. 1 wideout. He's nearly 45 lbs lighter than T.O. and doesn't have the burning speed of Todd Pinkston. He's a terrific, No. 3, slot-reciever type. A definate upgrade over Freddie Mitchell as the No. 3 wideout.

2006 Prediction: 45 catches, 600 yards, 4-6 TDs.





Billy McMullen. I think it is time to pull the plug on the Billy McMullen project. The Eagles third round pick in the '03 draft out of Virginia has the physical tools to be a No. 1 wideout. He's 6 foot four, 215 lbs (T.O.: six foot three, 226 lbs). If he could make it work, he'd be a real monster, however nothing seems to work with Billy. He's caught a grand total of 22 passes in his career and 18 were this year. He doesn't run routes well and doesn't use his body to create opportunities. Even without T.O., I can't see the Eagles wasting roster space on a failed project.

Good luck, Billy.

2006 Prediction: 5 catches, less than 100 yards, 0 TDs.

Todd Pinkston. I'm not sure what to think about Todd. Is he a good No. 2 for this team? Or is he a third or fourth wideout, a backup unworthy of starting? Todd didn't play in '05 thanks to his injury. His numbers for 2004, where he played opposite T.O., are so-so: 36 catches, 676 yards and one TD. Pinkston's 18.8 yards per catch are impressive, but he should have had more catches and many more TD's with T.O. drawing double-teams on the other side of the field.

Bottom-line is that Todd isn't a physical, bruising wideout: he's nearly fifty lbs lighter than T.O. He's the deep threat the Eagles want out there to stretch the field. (He had six catches of 46+ yards in 2004, including an eighty-yarder against the Redskins.) He's a great No. 2 to have on the field, but he's just not a No. 1 wideout. In fact, he's less of a 1 than Reggie or Greg. With both of them ahead in the depth chart, I don't see Todd having much of a season in 2006.

2006 Prediction: 30 catches, 500 yards, 3-5 TDs.

Those are the Birds top four WRs for 2006. I personally expect to see them add another WR in the draft and maybe make a run at a free agent like the Colts Reggie Wayne in the offseason. More likely than not, I see the Eagles standing pat and going with Greg, Reggie and Todd for 2006. I see Darnerien McCants as the No. 5 with a rookie the Birds pick up in free agency as the No. 4.

So how does the Eagles WR Corps stack up? Without T.O. this crew is badly lacking. T.O. was a tremendous talent who elevated everyone's game. Donovan was musing during the season that he was disappointed by T.O.'s departure because he felt they could re-write the record books together. Certainly, T.O. and Donovan were the greatest QB-WR duo since Jaws and Carmichael. T.O. might be the greatest WR to play for the Birds ever. I think Tommy McDonald and Harold Carmichael are the only others to lay claim to that title. I think T.O. and Donovan were primed for a monster season in '05: I felt Donovan was going to throw for 4,000 yards and at least 35 TDs, and T.O. was going to hit for 110 catches, 1,500 yards and 15-18 TDs.

No disrespect Seahawks fans, but the Eagles offense was the best in the NFC. If Donovan had stayed healthy and it T.O. hadn't had his falling out with Donovan, I think we'd be watching this team play this weekend against the Steelers.

What do I think of the '06 squad. It's talented, to be sure. I think Reggie Brown is going to be around for a long, long time. I think Greg Lewis could have a breakout season. I think that this group will be better than the WR Corps from '00 - '03. But the explosiveness that the Eagles had with T.O. is gone. The Eagles will be dangerous in '06, but they won't be as deadly as they could be.

Next: The Eagles DBs.

...again. Ever.

I'm stunned by how thoroughly the Seahawks dominated the Panthers. The game wasn't even close. Jake Delhomme played terrible football and the Panthers defense looked absolutely befuddled with how to deal with the Seahawks running game. I was a major skeptic about them coming into the playoffs, but now the Seahawks have made me a believer.

I'm less stunned by the Steelers victory over the Broncos. Jake Plummer made terrible decisions when the game was put on his shoulders and Mike Shannahan had obviously forgotten to look at game film from the previous week, when the Steelers caught the Colts by surprise and marched down the field by the pass. It was a dominating performance from the men of steel.

My preliminary feeling about the Super Bowl is that it is close, but I'd give a slight edge to the Steelers.

Anyway, I'm back on the Iggles beat. I am working on a few pieces about the Eagles position-by-position, as well as their schedule. 'Til then, I'll be hanging out in Wingheads.

E-A-G-L-E-S-EAGLES!

... it also means you are wrong 75% of the time.

I was 1-for-4 in my divisional round predictions after going 3-for-4 in the wildcard (honest!). I'll try better this time around.

AFC: There are striking statistical similarities between the quality of the Steelers and Broncos D. The Broncos and Steelers both allowed 258 points this season (16.1 PPG), third best in the NFL after the Colts and Bears. Both teams allowed roughly the same number of rushing yards too. Denver: 1,363; Pittsburgh: 1,368. Both teams scored roughly the same number of points too. (Denver: 395, Pittsburgh: 389)

These are similar teams: they both like to run, have their QBs make high-percentage throws and stifle the opposition with their defense. I like the Broncos in this game for the sole reason that they are at home and I think they are a little deeper than the Stillers. The Steelers are a terrible 1-4 in the AFC title game under Cowher, but all of those games were at home, so this is unfamiliar territory for the Stillers and they seem to have momentum. Still, I like the Broncos. They are better coached and they are hungry. Denver 31, Pittsburgh 24. Close one though.

NFC: I don't like the Seahawks. I just don't. This team built its record on wins against fluff teams and they don't have the toughness to win. They are an offense-oriented team and they are too soft to make this work.

I love the Panthers. They won some tough games in 2005: Patriots, Falcons (twice), Vikings and Bucs (twice). They won on a tough schedule in '05 and I think that's the difference. They've been there before (winning the '03 NFC title against the Eagles and narrowly losing the Super Bowl to the Pats), they are hungry and they are well-coached. I don't think this will be much of a game. Carolina 24, Seattle 7.

Let's see if I'm right...

I'm embarrassed that I forgot to post my wildcard round predictions last week. I always love to pontificate, so I am disappointed that I didn't give my two cents. I would have called 3 out of 4 games: I was wrong about the Redskins and Bucs, but that would have been it.

Alright, here is Round 2 ....

Carolina vs. Chicago. What do I like about Carolina? Their balance. Eighth in the NFL in scoring offense at 24.4 PPG. Fifth in scoring defense, 16.3 PPG. They play good defense and score points. I love the Bears D: 12.6 PPG is first in the NFL (2nd in yards allowed too). But I hate their offense. Sure they'll play better with Grossman, but this team was 29th in yardage and 26th in scoring. I think Carolina will stymie the Bears all game long and score a few points to win it. Call it 20-10 Panthers.

Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh. I'm sorely tempted to go with the Steelers. I am. They gave the Colts offense fits when they played back in the regular season and generally hung tough with the Colts. But I think that the Colts are too prepared and too rested to be taken. They'll be strong out of the gate and force the Steelers to play catch-up. I just don't see Manning being denied in his quest to face-off with his arch-nemesis, Tom Brady. Call it 28-24 Colts.

Washington vs. Seattle. I look at the Seahawks and I can't say I'm impressed. Sure they went 6-0 against their division. Their division foes were a collective 15-33 this year. (9-27 against non-division foes.) They only played four games against playoff teams and went 1-2 (their 28-13 win against the Colts doesn't count.) Their sole win came against the New York Giants team that choked in a big way in the clutch. Plus they've already lost to the 'Skins.

Sure, the Redskins offense looked terrible against the Bucs. But the Bucs had the NFL's stingiest defense (in terms of yardage), and the Seahawks are 16th. They'll move the ball. Portis will have a big, big day and keep the ball out of the hands of Matt Hasselback and Shaun Alexander. Call it Redskins 24, Seattle 17.

New England vs. Denver. The marquee matchup this weekend. The Broncos are the NFL's forgotten team. Quietly they had a great year, got a first round bye and are a game from the AFC title game. They've got balance, they've got talent ... But I'm going with the Patriots. The bottom-line is that the smart money should be on Denver. They were third in scoring defense (16.1) and seventh in scoring offense (24.7). The Pats are still a good offensive team (tenth in ponts, seventh in yards), but they look suspect on defense. Hard to believe they are 17th in scoring defense and 26th in yardage. In fact they are 31st (31st!!!) in passing yards allowed. If Jake Plummer ever wanted to make a statement, here it is.

But I'm going with the Pats. I think they are savvy enough to exploit weaknesses in the Broncos D and get things done. Plus, Brady is the best QB in the playoffs. Call it New England 34, Denver 31.

Thoughts?

Apparently Drew Rosenhaus has decided to ask for permission to seek a trade for his client, something that won't happen because teams know that the Eagles are planning on cutting T.O. loose this spring to save cap money. I suppose all that the annoucement means is that the wheels to take T.O. somewhere else are in motion.

Where will T.O. end up? I have a few theories.

Oakland Raiders. That would be the perfect place for T.O. Al Davis would love having the NFL's two best wideouts and two most disruptive personalities in his stadium. Just win baby! It would be just what the Raiders need to get back into the playoffs and make a run at the Super Bowl. Sadly, I don't think it will happen because T.O. and Moss' egos are too big to exist on one team. Chance: 5%

Houston Texans. I think the Texans are desperate enough to think it over. Imagine Reggie Bush and T.O. giving David Carr some weapons to wield. I think the Texans might be willing to risk a long-term contract as a way to entice T.O. to play for them. Chance: 5%

Baltimore Ravens. Again, I think that the Birds of Baltimore could be enticed to sign T.O. Billick just had a terrible year, their offense is still unable to master the concept of the forward pass (22nd in the NFL is passing yards) and their offense is sputtering with Jamal Lewis' decline. Billick might think that T.O. is an acceptable risk to help Kyle Boller and to save his own skin. The bad blood between T.O. and Ozzie Newsome might preclude such a deal, but this would be a good fit for T.O. Chance: 5%

Tampa Bay Bucs. A decent chance of T.O. coming to Tampa. They clearly need the threat to stretch the field for Williams and give Chris Simms a top-flight target to throw at. He'd really be perfect for them, except for Gruden's memories of dealing with MeShawn might make this a non-starter. Still, this is the second most likely chance. Chance: 10%

Dallas Cowboys. C'mon, this is where we know T.O. is heading to. Jerry Jones can't resist the idea of adding T.O. to his team to give him the edge in the divisional matchups and to spit in the Eagles collective eye. He may be a dumb loudmouth, but I bet Jerry Jones thinks that a one-year, Rent-T.O. deal will give him so flexibility to cast T.O. off when things go bad and that the Big Tuna can keep him in line. The prospect of the NFL's best wideout playing against the team he hates twice a year is too tantilizing a prospect for Jerry to pass up. 81 will be a Cowboy in '06. Chance: 75%

I don't see T.O. in some places, e.g., New England, Pittsburgh, Indy because some coaches won't put a poisonous influence like T.O. in their lockerooms. Other teams like Denver, or the Giants, might be tempted, but they already have wideouts they won't cast loose.

Thoughts?

First of all, allow me to re-introduce myself. My name is Michael Berquist, and I am an Eagles fan.

I created the Bird Blog in the Spring of 2004 during the heady days of Kearse, T.O., and the promise of the Super Bowl as an outlet for the prodigious enthusiasm for the team. With the baseball season starting, I created a blog for the Phillies in the interim and proceeded to pour my energies into it, allowing The Bird Blog to fall by the wayside. Even though the Birds went to Super Bowl, I retired the Bird Blog in December while the team had a 9-1 record. I kept my Phillies blog, A Citizen's Blog, going for another year. I never thought that I'd be back blogging.

But here I am.

Why did I quit blogging? I quit A Citizen's Blog back in August because I was fairly burned out from work, moving into a new house, and the frustration of watching the Phillies flail away at the playoffs. I couldn't keep breaking down stats and pouring over information in an effort to understand the game because my heart simply wasn't in it anymore. I finally quit because I had ceased to care about the game.

So why am I back? I have an incurable love of football and letting people know what my opinion is. I love the Eagles too.* This season was painful to watch: the team basically disintegrated and fell apart, just one year removed from nearly winning the Super Bowl.

I think that they'll be back in '06 stronger than ever. I think they'll make a good run for the Super Bowl again, and I want to chronicle that journey for you all.

So stay tuned, I'll post as often as I can...

* I root for the Eagles, but I live in Pittsburgh. Why? I grew up in Downingtown, a suburb about thirty miles west in Chester County, but I went west for college in '95. I graduated from Pitt in '99, went to law school in Pittsburgh, graduated and got married. Right now I live in the south hills of Pittsburgh and I work downtown as an attorney. My wife is from the Steel City so we live here.

I have nothing against the Steelers, I root for them, but my favorite team is still the Eagles. People leave, travel far and wide, and keep their allegiances to their home teams. (By the way, I've always found Steelers fans to be pretty cool about Eagles fans living in their midst.) I live in a place where the loyalty to the home team runs deep, but I can't go against my roots. I'm an Eagles fan.

No big surprise here, that Brad Childress would be moving on. He's been the Eagles offensive coordinator for a while and built up a strong unit here. I'm honestly surprised that nobody lured him away last year after the Super Bowl.

I wish him good luck: he's going to need it in the Norseland. Culpepper is damaged goods (both athletically and ethically), and there is a lot of bad karma there. On the plus side, this is a division that the Vikings can win easily: the Lions are a mess, the Bears are one-dimensional, and the Packers are rebuilding. If Childress can cut Culpepper loose smoothly and bring a few people on-board, this team is poised to win the NFC North in '06.

I think the Eagles won't have too much problem replacing him, given that Andy Reid is so involved in the offense. I hope the team will pick someone willing to emphasize the run a little.

Nice article from Sal Paolantonio about the Eagles 2005 woes.

-Paolantonio’s chief point is that the Eagles D-line was the crux of the problem: without a line getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the defensive secondary was left exposed trying to cover guys like Plaxico Burress, Santana Moss and Randy Moss all game long. Bottom-line: we need help on the D-line pretty bad. I’d assume that the Eagles will look for a D-lineman in the draft, or in free agency.

-Paolantionio blasts Mike McMahon for his play, but in McMahon’s defense he’s caught managing an offense with a leaking line and with two of its big guns (T.O. & Westbrook) gone. It’s a hard road to travel.

(I should note in the interest of full disclosure that one of my friends knows Mike, so I have some sympathy for the guy…)

-I don’t buy Paolantionio’s criticism of the way the Eagles handled the T.O. mess. They gave him the benefit of the doubt, but I don’t think anyone could have anticipated that he’d turn out to be the Attila the Team Unity Killer. I don’t see how they could have dealt with that mess any better than they did: they refused to negotiate when he tried to hold the team hostage, tried to allow him to get in the team’s good graces and cut their losses when he turned into a cancer.

-Should Andy Reid step down as VP? Sure. Hard to argue with what happened with Mike Holmgren in Seattle when he stepped down. Rebuilding the team and honing all of the new talent the team is going to have is going to take a full-time coach in ’06.

More later on.

Everyone will notice some changes to the site in the coming days. I’m going to try to expand the blogroll and add some more information links. Stay tuned.

I'm pleased to announce that the Bird Blog will be resurrected sometime within the next month.

Stay tuned.