THE BIRD BLOG

The NFL’s must-hyped, much-discussed “flex schedule” couldn’t save NBC from showing last night’s 45-21 annihilation of the Eagles at the hands of the 10-1 Indy Colts. Largely born out of last season’s 42-0 embarrassment at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks, ABC dropped Monday Night Football because it was difficult – it not impossible – to rally weary people to the TV set to sit through a horrifying football game when they could be watching Donald Trump display his massive ego for all of the world to see on NBC (“…And I like to think that we sell the classiest, best donuts in all of the world …”) The Donald, so oblivious to his own absurd ridiculousness, is much more fun and entertaining. The flex schedule was part of the NFL's efforts to make prime-time football more appealing to the networks and to make NBC hype the heck out of Sunday Night games when most fans are tired and want to go to sleep, or are having difficulty persuading their spouses to watch a 9th hour of football instead of "Desperate Housewives".

Sadly, when NBC decided to push this game to Sunday night they made a tragic error when hours later McNabb went down. Gone was the dream matchup of Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, the NFL’s two best QBs, replaced by the sight of Jeff Garcia desperately running for his life. Gone was the battle between the reeling Colts and the desperate Eagles. And gone were the viewers. I could barely be motivated to watch and found myself wondering what was happening on "Housewives". It had to be better than this.

In losing their fifth game in their last six, the Eagles have revived horrifying memories of 2005. Meanwhile, their arch-nemesis, T.O., marches towards the playoffs behind a tough defense and a QB who isn’t an immobile target in the pocket. After the Eagles 38-24 victory over the Cowboys earlier in the season little has gone right for the Eagles and little has gone wrong for the Cowboys. Have to feel that T.O. is more than a little happy right now, yeh?

Last night the Colts pounded the Eagles into submission with an astonishing 237 yards rushing on 41 carries. Peyton Manning got to take the night off, throwing just 20 times and completing 14 for another 183 yards. The Colts accumulated 15 first downs on the ground in the game, which saw the heretofore unimpressive Joseph Addai score four TDs. For probably the first time ever with Peyton Manning under center the Colts gained more yardage on the ground than in the air.

Jeff Garcia looked utterly hopeless and I hope that the Garcia Experience lasts no longer. Put in A.J. and take a shot. This team needs someone to stretch the field and restore some memories of the ’02 miracle, when the Eagles looked finished and ended up storming to the best record in the conference.

If there was a plus side to last night’s humiliation, it was that Brian Westbrook had some nice stats, carrying the ball 20 times for 124 yards and catching another seven passes for 46 yards. Westbrook accumulated 170 of the Eagles 300 yards (57%). The rest of the Eagles offense might as well been invisible: Donte Stallworth and Reggie Brown caught two passes for nine yards each. The Eagles wideouts had eight catches for 64 yards and a TD … Terrible. Simply terrible. The Colts defense was able to shorten the field and limit what the Eagles could do to small plays. The Eagles longest play from scrimmage was a 21-yard run by Westbrook. Their longest pass was a 19-yarder to Buckhalter. From an offense that was leading the league in 20+ or 30+ yard plays, this is a major calamity and goes to show you how utterly reliant the Eagles were on McNabb to get much of anything going.

Ironically, despite the Eagles loss, their playoff chances remain open in the NFC. Assuming that Seattle wins tonight against Green Bay, the Eagles only sit a game out of the playoff picture at 5-6, just behind the Giants and Panthers for the two wildcard slots. Despite the Eagles foibles, their NFC mates are very to get them into the playoffs:

-The Atlanta Falcons have collapsed, losing four in the row and it looks like More will be fired for the nightmare that Michael Vick has become. Since defeating the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers in consecutive weeks, two games that saw Vick throw 7 TDs and just 2 Ints, and average 9.18 yards per pass, Vick has thrown 3 TD passes and had six turnovers (four picks, two fumbles), hit just 45% of his passes and average 4.88 yards a pass.

-The Giants have lost three in a row and Tom Coughlin ought to be fired for yesterday’s 24-21 loss to the Titans. For a team to lose concentration like that … it has to be the coach’s fault.

-The Panthers are bizarrely inconsistent. How did they lose yesterday to the Redskins and their rookie QB?

-After looking like a juggernaut, the Bears suddenly look very beatable when Rex Grossman under center.

Right now the NFC looks like a three-way battle between the Seahawks (if they are healthy), the Cowboys and the Saints for supremacy. The Bears will win the division, but the wildcard race looks wide-open. None of these teams seem to want to win it and make the playoffs. Maybe the Eagles will return to January football after all?

The AFC side looks very strong: the Chargers are peaking, the Patriots are playing good ball, the Ravens humiliated the Steelers on Sunday, and the Colts will win the South in a walk. The question is whether the Bengals, Jets and Jaguars can catch the Chiefs and Broncos, two very beatable teams, for the wildcard slots. I say yes, and I predict that the Bengals and Jaguars will be the AFC’s other teams in the playoffs. We’ll see how things shape up next week. Oh yeah, and the Eagles play the Panthers on MNF next week. Suddenly the game doesn’t seem so hopeless.

-Simply losing yesterday’s game to the woeful Tennessee Titans 31-13 put the Eagles in too big of a hole to climb out of. It isn’t so much their record: 5-5 isn’t bad, given that there are a bunch of 6-4 and 5-5 teams the Eagles are pursuing, but their upcoming schedule is too daunting for them to recover from: Sunday night against the Colts (not as difficult as it might seem – Tony Dungy teams don’t deal with adversity well), Monday night against the Panthers (which could be an ouch game), then three consecutive road division games against the Redskins, Cowboys and Giants, followed by what I felt could be the essential equivalent of a playoff game: the season finale at the Linc against the Falcons. It was too tough a road to drive, given that the Eagles had dropped four of their last five games. When the news was official that McNabb was done, it was official that the Eagles were done too.

-So what is the closing line on McNabb? 180 of 316 (57%), 18 TDs, 6 Ints (3-to-1 ratio), 2,647 yards (264.7 yards per game). Interestingly, despite the lack of T.O. (and having big play man Donte Stallworth in-and-out of the lineup), McNabb actually averaged slightly more yards per pass in 2006 than in 2004 (8.4 to 8.3). Extrapolated to a full season, McNabb would have thrown 31 TD passes and 10 Ints, basically what he did in 2004 (31 TDs and 8 picks), and 4,579 yards, much better than the T.O. campaign (3,875).

-So now the Eagles are left with A.J. Feeley and Jeff Garcia. Feeley, remember, filled in for McNabb and Koy Detmer after both went down in ‘02 and led the Eagles to a 5-1 finish to wrap up the season not only get the Birds into the playoffs but put them in with home-field advantage. Can A.J. perform the same magic? I doubt it, but giving Feeley the reins over Garcia would put a younger, more accurate arm in the Eagles lineup and rekindle memories of ’02. Oh, and T.O. wouldn’t explode with joy when the Cowboys beat the Eagles later this season if Feeley is under center instead of his old nemesis Garcia.

-Now it is time to look at 2007. The Eagles have a lot of problems: they can’t run effectively (28th in rushing attempts), they can’t stop the run (22nd in yards per rush allowed), they lack a consistent big play receiver … they have a lot of holes to fill and drafting low again might be nice.

-Sadly, I think you have to start and think about who will succeed McNabb under center. The ACL is a 8-12 month injury. McNabb might not be ready until Turkey Day, 2007. He might miss the entire ’07 campaign. He might not ever come back, if things go wrong.

I think the Eagles long-term strategy needs to be as follows: play A.J. Feeley this season over Garcia. At the end of the season cut Garcia loose and sign a big-time QB in transition to be the Eagles insurance for McNabb’s return. Bank on McNabb returning in 2007, but leave wiggle room for if he has any troubles and you need someone to start the first half of the season in 2007. Start thinking about drafting McNabb’s successor in the ’08 draft. Groom him to be ready in 2010.

-Enjoy this week. I intend to gorge myself on turkey Thursday. My prediction for Sunday is Colts 38, Eagles 10. Good luck A.J.

Being the nerd that I am I sat down after the Eagles game on Sunday and figured out that the Eagles had run the ball 189 times this season prior to Sunday in eight games and had thrown the ball 299 times, or roughly 61% of the Eagles plays from scrimmage. The Eagles threw the ball three times for every two that they ran it going into yesterday.

Which makes yesterday’s game against the Washington Redskins a beautiful thing: the Birds ran the ball 34 times and threw it just 27, or just 44%. The Eagles finally discovered their running game. Brian Westbrook carried the ball for 113 yards on 22 carries, the kind of day we've been expecting from him for a while.

The game’s final drive was a masterpiece. Taking the ball at their own 28 with a little over nine minutes left on the clock, the Eagles proceeded to pound the ball down the Redskins throat. Westbrook ran five consecutive plays, gaining 3, 3, 4, 2 & 11 yards. After Buckhalter ran once and lost a yard, Westbrook ran for 21 yards. Then Buckhalter carried for 3 and 1 yards before McNabb hit Westbrook for a 7 yard pass to keep the drive alive on third and six. After Buckhalter rushed for another 4 yards the Eagles could simply take a knee and run the clock out. Ten carries, fifty-one yards and over nine minutes bled off the clock. It was simply a masterpiece, a spectacular close to the Eagles dominating performance yesterday afternoon. Finally, after allowing the Giants back into the game after leading 24-7, the Eagles figured out how to close out a game.

Apparently Andy Reid turned over play-calling duties to Marty Mornhinweg and the move as a good one: the Eagles broke out of their rut and really stuck it to a good Redskins defense. McNabb’s stats don’t look great (12 of 26, 222 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT), but they were a major improvement from the Jacksonville game (18 of 34, 161 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT) and the Bucs game (3 INTs). The real big news for the Eagles offense was the return of wideout Donte Stallworth, whom McNabb clearly missed during the team’s three-game losing streak. Stallworth had six of the Eagles twelve catches and 139 of the Eagles 222 passing yards. Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith and Westbrook managed just six catches for 83 yards. Westbrook and Stallworth were the Eagles offense on Sunday.

Defensively the Eagles D didn’t have a big task: stop one of the NFL’s least explosive offenses, but they did a nice job collaring the Redskins offense. Mark Brunnell had apparently never lost to the Eagles as an NFL QB, but the Redskins offense netted just 278 yards on Sunday and just 132 were in the air. The Eagles porous pass coverage tightened up and it looked like the Redkins couldn’t stretch the field at all. Maybe the weather had something to do with that, but the Eagles threw the ball effectively deep, so credit the Eagles secondary with keeping Antwan Randle El and Santana Moss bottled up.

That cap on the Redskins pass game – and the game-ending injury to running back Clinton Portis – kept the Redskins from running the ball with too much effectiveness. The Redskins got 146 yards on the ground, but this is a team that needs to run to survive. They got some rushing yards, but the Eagles offense took the big plays and got the points.

There was a ton of good news for the Eagles on Sunday. First off, the Atlanta Falcons unexpectedly laid an egg against the terrible, awful Cleveland Browns, losing 17-13. Vick turned the ball over three times against the Browns and was roundly booed by the fans. Then the Minnesota Vikings lost to the Packers 23-17 to drop them to 4-5. Then, best of all, the Chicago Bears rallied from a 13-3 deficit and roared back to beat the New York Giants 38-20 in a game that has to leave the Giants depressed about the direction the team is going in. More good news: the Saints lost to the Steelers 38-31 yesterday, which means that the Saints advantage over the Eagles is somewhat diminished should the Panthers come on strong late in the season and take the NFC South.

If the playoffs were to begin today the 5-4 Eagles would be in as the higher of the two wildcards thanks to the tie-breaker they hold on the 5-4 Cowboys and the strength of a superior conference record over the 5-4 Falcons and the 5-4 Panthers (assuming that the Panthers defeat the Bucs on Monday Night Football).

I’m not saying that the Eagles are locked in as a wildcard team, but if they cannot over-take the Giants they have a route to the playoffs to take. Winning the NFC East, however, is looking like a definite possibility: the Giants get the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Monday Night Football in a game that looks like a definite ‘L’ for them, followed by the Titans on the road, the Cowboys and then the Panthers in Carolina. The Giants could see their record drop to 7-6 going into the game on December 17 in the Meadowlands against the Eagles. After that the Giants play the Saints and Redskins.

The Cowboys are emerging as the more significant threat to the Eagles as this season shapes up: whomever scheduled the Cowboys must have been taking bribes from Jerry Jones or something, because I am at a loss to explain why the ‘Boys got such a sweetheart of a scheduling deal as this: five of their last seven games are at home. The Eagles play four of their last six on the road. The Cowboys get the Indianapolis Colts at home. The Eagles go to the RCA Dome to play the Colts. Oh, and the Eagles play the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys on the road on consecutive weeks. This schedule was designed to give the Cowboys a shot at the post-season and to keep the Eagles out.

Up next for the Eagles, home against the Tennessee Titans. Make no mistake about it: this is a vital, must-win game for the Eagles. They need to get to 6-4 and set themselves up for their last six games: the Colts, the Panthers, the three NFC East games, and the Falcons. The Titans are 2-7 and I don’t think that Vince Young is going to live up to all of the hype in Nashville. He looks like he has fewer tools than Michael Vick and Vick is a stunningly inconsistent player, looking very good one week against the Steelers, and then losing to the Lions and Browns. Add in the Titans internal turmoil between the coach and GM, and this team looks like a loser next Sunday. The Eagles have always had success against Vick and mobile QBs in general, which is good news. The Eagles have got to win, otherwise they have an exactly 0% margin of error against the rest of the league.

Check out my Phillies blog: I am wrapping up my big series on the 1950 Phillies this week.

The Eagles didn’t play yesterday but they still had a nice day. In addition to resting up a few games ended up going their way and helped their post-season chances, including three games that were upsets and saw teams the Eagles might be chasing in December drop to 4-4 instead of going to 5-3:

-The Minnesota Vikings lost to the 49ers 9-3 in a game that the Vikes ought to have won by a pretty hefty margin. The loss drops the Vikings to 4-4 and is just their second conference loss, important for the Eagles because they might find themselves in competition with the Vikes for the wildcard.

-The Cowboys lost 22-19 to the Redskins, a major victory for the Eagles because it keeps the Cowboys record at 4-4 and keeps the Eagles in second since they own the tie-breaker. At this point the Cowboys are a much bigger threat to do something than the Redskins, so any game the Cowboys lose helps the Eagles out.

-The St. Louis Rams lost 31-17 to the Kansas City Chiefs, which likewise drops their record to 4-4.

-Best of all the Detroit Lions came out of nowhere and upset the Falcons and Michael Vick. After Vick had put together sterling performances in the last two weeks against the Steelers and Cincinnati, he proceeds to turn in a bad performance and lose a conference game. The loss keeps the Falcons record at 5-3 and keeps the Eagles within striking distance.

-In the outside chance that the Eagles can take the division and make a run on homefield advantage in the playoffs (the former being much more likely than the latter), then the Miami Dolphins did the Eagles a big favor by beating the Bears yesterday.

Aside from the Giants narrowly beating the Texans 14-10, yesterday worked out very, very nicely for the Birds. The team got rested and ready for a grueling stretch. Next week they play the Redskins at the Linc. If they want to stay in the playoff race, this is a must-win game.

As many people know I live in the South Hills area of Pittsburgh, so I follow the Steelers (this town is as quiet as a tomb when they play) and yesterday’s tough 31-20 loss to the Denver Broncos basically ends their season. They are 2-6 and sit four games behind the Baltimore Ravens and two behind the Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers still have to play the Bengals once, the Ravens twice and they get non-conference games against the Saints and Panthers. Their only solace is that they get three cream-puff games: two against the Browns and a game against the Buccaneers. In order for the Steelers to make the playoffs they’ll basically have to go 8-0 or 7-1 and get some luck because the wildcard isn’t an option: San Diego and Jacksonville, the two teams currently sitting in the wildcard slots, both own tie-breakers on the Steelers. Their only chance is for the Ravens and the Bengals to implode and give them a chance to sneak in and win the AFC North. That is unlikely, although I don’t think the Ravens are anywhere good as their 6-2 record looks. I think the Steelers will basically stagger to the finish line at 7-9 and that this is Bill Cowher’s final year with the Steelers.