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Thursday, September 30, 2004

Predictions for Week 4: 

Last week: 11-3

Week 4:

Patriots 28, Bills 10; pity Drew Bledsoe
Redskins 13, Browns 9
Packers 24, Giants 23
Colts 37, Jaguars 30; the Jags run stops here …
Texans 17, Raiders 13
Steelers 31, Bengals 23; interesting game to see how Big Ben plays against a better team than the offensively inept Dolphins …
Cardinals 20, Saints 17; upset special
Panthers 10, Falcons 7; Vick-for-MVP bandwagon takes a hit …
Jets 31, Dolphins 9
Titans 21, Chargers 20; the Titans need a win, and fast …
Broncos 33, Buccaneers 10; Gruden looks less like a genius these days …
Rams 45, 49ers 3; Zzzzz …. Why does ESPN get so many snoozers on Sunday Night Football?
Chiefs 16, Ravens 14; desperation game for the Chiefs. They must win.

Eagles 34, Bears 6; no disrespect to Bears fans, but their team looks awful on offense. It has for years. This will be a close game for the first 2-3 quarters, but the Bears defense will break down in the fourth quarter and the Eagles will storm to a convincing win. The Eagles are much more balanced, and T.O. should score a TD or two against their depleted secondary.

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Monday, September 27, 2004

By the numbers 

With their 30-13 win yesterday the Eagles advanced to 3-0 and entered some fairly rarified air. The Birds have never begun better than 1-1 with Andy Reid in charge, which means that the team is entering into uncharted territory even for them. First, a few numbers I thought interesting:

Number of undefeated NFL teams left: 6

There are four 3-0 squads now (Eagles, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Seattle) and the 2-0 Patriots and Jets, who were idle this past weekend. Not many undefeateds left on the map, so the '72 Dolphins have to be breathing a little easier than usual this year. I’ve seen a lot of 16-0 talk thrown around in the Wingheads forum, but lets keep things in perspective here: wait until we get to 6-0 or 7-0 before we start all of that. If we are undefeated going into the Steelers game on November 7, we’ve got a shot …

McNabb’s rank in QB rating after three weeks: 3

McNabb’s completion percentage after three weeks: 69.8%

Take that, Rush Limbaugh.

I was stunned when I heard about what the conservative radio pundit had said on ESPN’s NFL Countdown last year and baffled by it: since when has the media in Philly given anyone a free ride? ( Mind you, I was hardly surprised Rush got his info wrong: a media group once examined the “facts” the pill-popping pundit cited in a six-month period of his show in ’94 and found that 37% of them were wrong.) But it was shocking stuff and I was positive the media whirlwind was something that would dog McNabb and the Eagles all season long…

In any case, McNabb proved himself countless times before his ’03 slump: he carried the team in ’00 without Duce and played big in critical games. Now McNabb is having a stellar season: to those who complained he wasn’t accurate enough, he’s completing about 70% of his throws. He’s accounted for ten touchdowns (eight in the air, two by ground) and zero turnovers. He’s thrown for nearly 1,000 yards already. For all of the media’s fascination with the flashy Michael Vick, McNabb is the true field general, the consistent performer week in and week out. QB rating:

McNabb: 122.0 / 2 nd in NFC
Vick: 81.1 / 10 th in NFC

Touchdowns:

McNabb: 10
Vick: 2

Who’s the more viable MVP candidate after three weeks?

T.O.’s catches: 18; Eagle TE’s: 23

I thought that the biggest beneficiary of T.O.’s presence was going to be Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell, but both have caught just 11 balls combined playing on the opposite side of T.O. The true beneficiares have been the Eagles tight ends, Mike Bartrum, L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis. Together they have caught 23 passes for 269 yards (11.7 average) and three TD’s.

Thoughts on the game …

I thought it was a fairly impressive effort by the Eagles, even though I suspected that the Lions were slightly over-rated going in.

One player who was not over-rated with rookie wideout Roy Williams, who accounted for 135 of the Lions 256 net yards. Wow. He was the beneficiary of some awful tackling on his second touchdown (more on that later), but that was a command performance he delivered yesterday.

On the balance the Eagles did a great job: they aired it out and put the Lions behind the eight ball early and played some tough defense. The secondary’s inability to stop Williams was discouraging and makes you fear what could happen in a playoff game against Randy Moss, Williams or Tory Holt, but the defense played very well. They gave up just 256 net yards of offense, despite the fact that the Lions began two drives in Eagles territory.

Offensively, I didn’t care for how little the Eagles ran the ball (Westbrook had just 44 yards on 13 carries), but why run why you can fly through your opponent? McNabb was averaging 12.3 yards every time he attempted to throw the ball. As I said earlier, McNabb is on his way to laying claim to the MVP crown again. The only other QB playing as well right now is Peyton Manning.

Next: da Bears! No disrespect to fans in the Windy City (you guys deserve better than Rex Grossman), but we should go 4-0 …

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Saturday, September 25, 2004

That was irritating ...  

Pitt 41, Furman 38

My alma mater squeeked by a Division I-AA school in OT ... Grrr ...

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Thursday, September 23, 2004

Week 3... 

Before I talk a little about the Eagles I’m going to write a little about my wedding / honeymoon. Anyone who reads my Phillies blog can skip to the bottom, because they've read this before ...

My wife and I married at 2:30 PM on Saturday, September 4, 2004 in Natrona Heights, PA. Our wedding went well, aside from an embarrassing incident involving alcohol and a fight with a relative of mine and a guest (don’t ask). Everyone had a terrific time and the pictures and videos we got back have been terrific. My wife looked beautiful in her wedding gown. My best man gave a terrific toast that was so nice that I can hear a relative of my wife’s remarking on one tape: “What a great friend…” Both families seemed to have a terrific time, and despite the fact that it was a 300+ mile drive from Philly to Pittsburgh, I had a lot of family at the church and reception. I had the time of my life.

We left two days later we left for the first leg in our journey: we flew to San Francisco and spent a day and two halves in the city by the Bay. SF is gorgeous: the Bay is crystal blue, with white sails from sailing ships dotting the horizon. We cruised the Bay, ate at Pier 39, visited the Bay Aquarium, and toured the Ripley’s Believe-It-Or-Not! Museum. On Wednesday we left for Oahu. We did our honeymoon as part of a tour group, which was fun. We got to stay at terrific hotels and ate at stellar restaurants.

On Oahu we did all of the touristy stuff: the U.S.S. Arizona Memorial (very, very evocative moment to be standing there, thinking about the over 1,000 sailors who died when the battleship blew up), the Punchbowl National Cemetary, the Polynesian Cultural Center (very interesting and very worthwhile if you get a chance: the students who perform are very talented), etc. We stayed at the Hyatt in Waikiki Beach, which offered a terrific view of the local area. Waikiki is an interesting place (lots of Japanese tourists) and a good beach: very soft surf. I saw people swimming at midnight there.

We left and spent three days on Kauai. I liked our hotel a lot (the Sheraton Kauai at Poipu Beach): it had a gorgeous view of the pool and beach and was situated just forty or so yards from Poipu Beach itself. Kauai is nice but a little too rural and quiet. We had fun doing a helicopter tour of the island (if you go to Kauai you must do it: the views of the island are sensational), but we weren’t that sorry to go. For one thing, while Poipu is nice, I don’t understand why people rave about it the way they do.

Maui, on the other hand … my wife practically cried when we left there. The beach (Ka’anapaali) is like something out of a post-card and Maui itself is just the right mix between quiet and solitude and activity that you could never get bored there. Plus, our hotel (Hyatt Maui) was a palace. Anyway, we did a lot: we snorkeled (I have a cool picture of my wife swimming with a sea turtle), took a trip to Mount Haleakala [sic?], and explored Ka’anapaali.

We got back and found out that the Pittsburgh area got hit with six inches of rain last Friday, which flooded the rivers and left people’s boats laying on the sides of roads and flooded people out of house and home. My wife and I were fortunate that we live on a hill in an apartment complex, but others lost everything. (one of my wife’s bridesmaids’ family house got about six inches of water in the basement.) It was been very tragic to see.

On to football. It isn't surprising to see the Eagles at 2-0, but they've looked a lot better than I think a lot of people expected them to be. Defensively, Kearse has been everything the Eagles wanted when they signed him in the off-season. Let's see if they can keep it going in the battle between the 2-0 teams ...

This week’s predictions:

Steelers 17, Dolphins 7; Big Ben starts for the Steelers. He'll do well.

Falcons 35, Cardinals 13; Vick for MVP?

Ravens 13, Bengals 6

Texans 24, Chiefs 14; my upset special

Vikings 28, Bears 3

Giants 23, Browns 7; a pity Winslow got injured. The Browns have little-to-no chance of doing anything now.

Rams 33, Saints 10

Titans 16, Jaguars 13; a good test for the Jags.

Broncos 31, Chargers 0

Seahawks 34, 49ers 7

Colts 21, Packers 14; I predicted a rough season for Favre & Co...

Buccaneers 19, Raiders 16

Cowboys 24, Redskins 21

And the Eagles game …

Eagles 27, Lions 20; with all due respect to the Lions, wins against the Bears and Texans aren’t a real test. The Eagles should be able to hit Harrington early and often given the lack of a ground game in the Motor City. The Lions defense also looks a little soft. I’m pretty confident that McNabb could throw for 300 yards this Sunday. Look for T.O. to get a TD: he’ll be motivated to show up his old coach.

Check out this terrific article about Jevon Kearse I saw on the AP page. What a great pickup! (So far the Birds braintrust look like geniuses.)

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Tuesday, September 21, 2004

God bless MNF! 

The apartment a mess, still adjusting from being on Hawaiian time, I sat down to watch the Eagles-Vikings game on Monday Night Football deeply excited, and not just because I found the bamboo chime I bought on Kauai in my suitcase which makes a cool “clunk-clunk” sound: living in Pittsburgh I am essentially at the mercy of the NFL’s scheduling committee as to when I get to watch the Eagles: I get the Steelers, or a local game affecting them (Browns, Ravens, Bengals) unless the Birds are on Sunday Night, Saturday, or MNF. This year, as in years past, the birds get 3 MNF slots, and I couldn’t be happier. On to the game …

My biggest fear going into the game was Randy Moss. As has been discussed, dissected and moaned about at length, the Birds corners are small and inexperienced. Going up against the NFL super-receiver (nice to see him so motivated to bother to try and earn his millions these days) scared me. I’m pleased to say that the Eagles defensive scheme did a terrific job containing him: eight catches, 69 yards. Moss’s longest catch was just 22 yards, pretty paltry from a guy who can break a big one on every play. The Eagles bend-but-don’t-break scheme kept the Vikings frustrated and unable to cash in their opportunities: the Vikes kept swinging the ball out into the flat, expecting their guy to catch the ball, break a tackle and go for the big score, and it never happened. The Eagles secondary cleanly made tackles and bottled up everything (Lito Shepard and Sheldon Brown had a combined 20 tackles). It was a performance to be pleased with.

The Eagles offense is harder to analyze: they held onto the ball for just over 22 minutes. McNabb was the offensive star: he threw the ball with a lot of zip and accuracy (season-to-date completion percentage: 70%) and ran at opportune moments. Great performance. Westbrook, aside from the fumble, did great: 128 yards despite just 17 touches (12 carries, 5 catches). Well on his way to being an “A-back”.

T.O.? Not like last week, eh? With the Birds 2-0, I think he’ll stay happy having “just” one TD.

Other thoughts:

Looks like the strategy of using Kearse to up-grade the pass-protection scheme worked: the Vikings couldn’t throw deep all night long, which prevented the Vikings from getting to utilize their size/height advantage (aside from Moss’ TD). Let's hope this works against the Rams.

What did I say about Culpepper being turnover-prone?: I remember the historian Doris Kearns Goodwin saying, in reference to a critical catch in the 1955 World Series that heralded the Brooklyn Dodgers victory, that there are plays which you know portend certain victory or defeat, you just know your team will win / lose when the play happens. The Culpepper fumble was that play. When the Birds stripped him at the goal line, I knew they’d win the game. Simple as that.

The Eagles rushing defense did a terrific job: Smith had just 28 yards on ten carries and, as a team, they had just 78 yards.

You have to love Reed’s kick-returns: looks like the Eagles recent skill in finding terrific return guys continues (Mitchell to Westbrook to Reed).

Next up for the Eagles: the improved Lions and the Bears. No reason to think the Birds can’t be 4-0, going into the Panthers game on October 17.

The Eagles are just one of seven 2-0 teams. Think about that.

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Monday, September 20, 2004

quick preview... 

Tonight's game will be an interesting test for the Eagles corners to see how they'll handle (arguably) the most dangerous wideout in the game. The key will to be the Eagles ability to get to Dante Culpepper: he is turnover-prone and inconsistent. I wonder how good the Vikings vaunted defensive upgrades will look against an offense that (from what I heard) looked very good against the G-men. I was stunned when I saw how throughly McNabb & TO picked them apart.

I didn't get to see much of the Eagles game in Hawaii. I watched a little of the Falcons - 49ers game on Kauai last sunday while Katherine & I were getting ready to hit Poipu beach. It was odd to watch the "later" games start at 10:00 AM ...

More later...

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Sunday, September 19, 2004

Guess who's back... 

Back from Hawaii! My wife & I had a blast. We’re busy fixing up the apartment after two weeks of lying on the beach in Maui, Kauai and Oahu. I’ll do a little write-up in the coming days, but we’ve just started to put this place back together.

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Thursday, September 02, 2004

W-Day 

The day that I've been anticipating for the last ... twenty months or so, is nearly here. I'm getting married on Saturday, September 4th, at 2:30 in a Pittsburgh suburb. My fiancee is a terrific girl and I'm excited, definately looking forward to this. I've know this girl for five years and I'm in love with her now as I've ever been. I'm very, very lucky.

Anyway, this means that both A Citizen's Blog and The Bird Blog are taking a few weeks off. I'm not blogging, I'm not reading the newspaper, I'm not paying attention to the Phillies or the Eagles, I'm not doing anything over the next three weeks aside from marry my wife, fly to Hawaii for an awesome honeymoon, and bake on the beach. I see these people go on vacations with their cell phones and beepers and laptops and I think: "Relax!" Your vacation / honeymoon is your time to clear out your mind and be with your loved one(s). I intend to relax for a few weeks.

See you all in a few weeks. Good luck to everyone.

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