THE BIRD BLOG

Who in the injury pool had Nate Wayne?

The Eagles won't have too much trouble in the season-opener with Kurt Warner under center for the Giants. No disrespect to Warner as a person, but he's really a shadow of the player he used to be.

Cris Carter predicts the Eagles will be first. Fairly predictable prediction.

Poor A.J. ... that is just a really, really hard situation down there in Miami. I always thought that would be a bad fit for him.

When I first started watching the Eagles back during the Buddy Ryan era (1989), the heart and soul of the team was its defense. The offense led by Randall Cunningham was plagued with inconsistency. They were a united perpetually divided over whether Cunningham should be a pocket passer or a scrambler, and they lacked the kind of sustained ground game necessary for real success in the NFL. (It wasn’t until Ricky Watters and Charlie Garner joined the team did they get a real ground game.)

The defense, on the other hand, was Gang Green, the fearsome unit that shut-down opposing offenses and didn’t give an inch. Guys like Clyde Simmons, Reggie White, Seth Joyner, Jerome Brown were the best of the best and, week in and week out, made the Eagles a tough opponent to face off with. Since then the Eagles have changed, but the primacy of the defensive unit remains. It is the heart and soul of the Eagles. You could hardly imagine the Eagles as the Rams, with their Max Q offense burning up the league. No, the Eagles can be prodigious scorers on offense, but they will always be about their tough, gritty, blue-collar defense.

Surprisingly, the Eagles Defense was awful in ’03: tenth in the conference in overall yardage allowed, eighth in passing yards allowed, and thirteenth (13!) in rushing yardage allowed (129.4 yards a game, far worse than the Cowboys conference-leading 89.1) … The sole area that the Eagles excelled at in ‘03 was the most important, however: keeping opponents out of the end zone. The Birds allowed the third fewest points in the conference: 17.9, compared to the Cowboys 16.3. Where the Birds defense excelled at in ’03 was in turnover margin and on third down:

The Eagles had 22 giveaways v. 26 takeaways (+4). The Cowboys, despite fearsome stats, were too error-prone in ’03, going -4 in the margin. Don’t count on a Bill Parcells teams being that sloppy in ’04 again. The Birds also were the fourth stingiest team in the NFC on third downs, allowing just 35.3% of all attempts. The Eagles defense allowed just 31% of all third-down conversions in ’02, best in the conference. In short: the birds gave up the yards by the bushel, but they were more likely to force turnovers and force punts than give up points. This bend, bend, bend, but never break philosophy enabled the Eagles to squeak out some close victories. Six of the Eagles 12 wins were by 7 points or less. Until the final week of the season the Eagles failed to hold any foe to single-digits, something they did four times in 2002.

So why were the Eagles so bad in ’03? Injuries? Maybe. Brian Dawkins and Bobby Taylor missed roughly half of the season, most of the defensive line didn’t make it out of the preseason, and Carlos Emmons and Troy Vincent went down at critical junctures … Emmons injury in particular hurt: the team already had difficulty stopping the run and the Carolina Panthers took full advantage in the NFC title game. The Birds rushing defense was ridiculously incapable of stopping anyone, as evidenced by the number of 100-yard rushers in 2003: Ahman Green, Kevan Barlow, Ricky Williams, etc. The Birds surrendered 4.5 yards per carry. With a healthy Emmons on the field, there is no telling how different the title game might have been. (Or it might not have been different. It might have just been 10-3 or 7-3.)

But injuries might only be half of the story: the undeniable fact of the Eagles recent strategy has been to get smaller and quicker. The shift, after Jeremiah Trotter’s departure to D.C. in ‘02, from Levon Kirkland and Barry Gardner in the middle to Mark Simoneau was a big move for the Eagles organization: the team went smaller and quicker and sacrificed power and strength for speed and agility.

The likely reason for the shift was the Eagles experience chasing Michael Vick in the Bird 20-6 victory in the NFC Divisional game: the elusive Vick clearly scared the Eagles brain-trust (understandable, given that the previous week Vick led the Flacons to a stunning upset of the Packers) and had given them fits. The Birds played it safe all game long, playing back, clearly afraid to get burned in a blitz by Vick’s agility. The decision to go quicker was probably made in light of the divisional round game, the organization knowing they’d be going to the Georgia Dome for a (then seemingly) critical game and then fearful they’d have to face Vick in the playoffs. Until Vick got injured and the Defensive line turned into a M.A.S.H. unit, it was probably a smart move to make the Eagles linebacking corps a quicker unit. A depleted defensive line meant that the linebackers rapidly became the front line of defense on running plays. It is interesting to note that Strong Safety Michael Lewis logged 86 tackles in ’03, third-most after Linebackers Simoneau and Nate Wayne.

Will the Eagles better in ’04?

I’m not too thrilled so far. The Steelers ran right through the linebacking corps, so I wonder if Lewis and Dawkins will be making lots and lots of tackles in ’04. The D-line looks better with Kearse, but I wonder how losing N.D. Kalu, a quietly effective pass-rusher, will hurt. Honestly, I can’t forecast the Eagles being much better against the run, so birds fans had better get used to Stephen Davis and Clinton Portis and Eddie George having big games. It is inevitable. I do think that the secondary will be better than advertised due to the presence of Kearse collapsing the pocket.

How do I think the Eagles season will unfold? The Eagles open the season with a pair of home games: first against the New York Giants and then a Monday Nighter against the Vikings. After that the Eagles go on the road to Detroit and Chicago, then a bye week. The Eagles should be a lock to win every game except the one against the Vikings, so they should be 3-1 or 4-0 heading into the bye.

After the bye, the Eagles have road games in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, as well as home games against the Ravens and Panthers. Cleveland should be an easy win, and the Eagles ought to be able to take two of three from the Stillers, Panthers and Ravens, given that two are at home. There will be, predictably, considerable attention devoted to these three games, given that the Eagles are facing off with the team that beat them to get into the Super Bowl, the team T.O. told to shut up and die, and the team that Duce defected to. I’m honestly stunned that the NFL didn’t make any of them nationally televised: they are all Sunday at 1:00 PM … At this mid-way point in the season the Eagles should be 6-2 or so.

After that, the season gets much more difficult: the next three games are against division foes and two are on the road. The Eagles will have to travel to Dallas on Monday Night on November 15, a tough game to be sure. I’d be willing to guess that the Eagles will lose in Big D, but beat the Giants and ‘Skins to run their record to 8-3. I think thatMNF game against the Cowboys will be the most important of the season, just the same way beating the Giants last October was vital to the ’03 campaign and beating the 49ers made the Eagles season in ’02. If the birds win in big D, then the pressure will be on Dallas to win the game at the Linc. They’ll have to, or the Eagles will have a decisive edge for the division title and the playoffs.

The final stretch of the season will be brutal, with games against the Rams (on the road) and Packers, as well as the ‘Skins again and a critical home date against the Cowboys on December 19 that will almost certainly decide the division. Finally, Cincinnati. (Who figured that was a good way to end the season?) Thinking it over, I think 12-4 or 11-5 is likely.

Oh, and Eagles fans, chew on these thoughts I was having: the last four years have been some of the most successful in franchise history: 46-18 regular season record, three division titles, four playoff berths, and a 5-4 record in the playoffs (though 0-3 in the NFC title game) … we’re living through the Eagles Silver Age. The Eagles haven’t had this kind of sustained success since they won the NFL title in 1948 & 1949, which I suppose was the birds golden age. Something to think about...

At least nobody got injured ...

Well, there were things I liked about the game: I loved McNabb's scrambling (I said look for him to run more in '04!), and I loved Eric McCoo ... he actually looked like Duce Staley out there, and not just because he wears #22 ... terrific drive from L.J. ...

And there were things I didn't like about the game: McNabb was just 8 for 19! Am I the only one a little worried about this? He needs to be more accurate. And the Eagles need to toughen up against the run. Granted, the Steelers are a great running team, but they need to do better. And Andy Hall essentially played his way off the roster. His throws looked weak and off-target. Jeff Blake is the No. 3 ... drat!

I watched the ESPN broadcast. It was bizarre to hear Thiesman and McGuire with Pat Summerall. Something just a little off about it. hearing Summerall say: "Sportscenter is next..." was jarring. Pat Summerall doesn't say "Sportscenter is next..."! He should be saying something like: "What you just said makes no sense, John..." (It reminded me, back when Summerall was on Fox, of listening to Summerall read promos for The X-Files when the show was on Sunday Nights. Listening to Summerall read off something like: "Tonight on the X-Files, Agent Mulder finds out who in the alien conspiracy was behind the abduction of his sister." I always imagined Summerall turning to his producer and mouthing to him: "What the hell are you making me read?")

But I liked Thiesmann's comment that Buckhalter's injury doesn't just put Westbrook on the line, but it also impacts the Eagles return game. The Eagles are losing an explosive return game now that Westbrook is the A Back. Westbrook basically won the Miracle at the Meadowlands II with a punt return. Is this a hidden danger the Eagles have?

And hey, if I'm a Steeler fan I love what I just saw. Their new QB (I won't try to spell his last name) looked good, and Duce was awesome. These guys are going to be better than I anticipated. I might want to rework my predictions and give them the edge in the AFC North.

I'm off. Talk to you all later!

Terrific pre-season matchup between the Eagles and Steelers tonight at Heinz Field. I'll be watching on ESPN @ 8:00 ... aside from the obvious about playing Duce, this will be an interesting game: the Steelers are a run-oriented team with the capability of stretching the field, so this might be a better test for the Eagles run-stopping ability than the Pats and Ravens. The Steelers wideouts aren't great, but they've give Lito Shepard and Sheldon Brown a workout. I'm most interested in seeing Reno Mahe and the rest of the running back corps get some snaps. They'll be interesting to watch ...

I've been spending time in a terrific fan forum called Wingheads. Great fans, great discussion. It's gonna be hoppin' when the season kicks off.

I enjoy reading Gregg Easterbrook's work with the Tuesday Morning Quarterback. He's a terrific writer, a real renissance man in his varied areas of interest as a political pundit for The New Republic, a policy wonk for The Atlantic Monthly (my two favorite magazines), an author on social issues, and a football fan. Anyway, Easterbrook just published his '04 NFC preview. Highlights: he continues to obsess over the Eagles cheerleaders, he's glad to see the Eagles spend a little salary-cap dough (I am not: I'm the guy who saves for a rainy day even when it's sunny as can be), and he's worried about the Birds ground game. Aren't we all.

I saw on Yahoo! that Shockey is still injured. (Chortle, chortle.) That's too bad...

Nice article about McNabb's development as a QB. I really think that, in some ways, '03 was McNabb's best season. After those first six games he really stepped it up and turned out some terrific numbers. I know he was the runner up in the MVP voting in '00, but last season was his best because he was able to bounce back from the terrible start and direct the team to a 9-1 record down the stretch with the eyes of the NFL watching him, waiting for him to make a mistake.

And now Corey Simon is out ... greaaaaaat....

Looks like some of the draft choices are going to play a big role in '04. I wonder if the Eagles will be a little like the Patriots last year, how they relied on role-playing rookies to stitch together a fairly formitable unit.

I’ve heard, more times than I care to hear, the cliché: “Offense gets the glory, but defense wins the game.” Certainly, the ’00 Ravens leant credence to that: I’ve never seen a more dominant team with such a lousy offensive unit. But you need a capable offensive unit to win. Even the Ravens can’t keep winning 3-0 games.

So what is the Eagles offensive outlook in ’04? A few big unknowns:

What, precisely, is going to be T.O.’s impact? Will he raise McNabb to a 60%+ passer? Will he open up the rest of the Eagles offensive unit?

What, precisely, is going to be the impact of Duce’s departure? Will his departure open up a gaping hole at the tailback slot? What about Buckhalter's injury? Can Westbrook and Levens keep things going?

What Eagle is going to have a break-out season? Reno Mahe? Freddie Mitchell? L.J. Smith?

First, the ground game: The Eagles ground game was sterling in ’03: 125.9 yards a game (fifth in the NFC), 4.8 yards a carry, and 23 touchdowns (which led the NFC) (contrast with the ’02 season: 138.8 yards a game, 4.5 yards a carry and 15 TD’s).

The three-headed monster that was the Eagles backfield of Westbrook, Buckhalter and Duce Staley was amazing in ’03. Consider their rushing stats:

Duce: 463 yards, 4.8 avg, 5 TD’s
Buckhalter: 542 yards, 4.3 avg, 8 TD’s
Westbrook: 613 yards, 5.2 avg, 7 TD’s
Total: 1,618 yards, 4.7 avg, 20 TD’s

Add in their receiving stats:

Duce: 36 catches, 382 yards, 2 TD’s
Westbrook: 37 catches, 332 yards, 4 TD’s
Buckhalter: 10 catches, 133 yards, 1 TD
Total: 83 catches, 847 yards, 7 TD’s

The threesome constituted 26% of the Eagles receiving yards, 30% of receptions, 80% of their rushing yards, and 67% of the team’s offensive touchdowns. I doubt any other team in the NFL relies so much on its running backs for offense. In many respects, they were the Eagles entire offense in ’03, a fact which has gone remarkably uncommented upon, until Buckhalter's injury focused attention on the unit.

So the question is, how much will losing Duce impact the team? Duce was a unique player: not as explosive as Westbrook, but he was more durable than Westbrook and more versatile than Buckhalter. Unlike Buckhalter, Duce has always been a terrific receiver for McNabb: he tied Thrash for the team lead in receptions in ’01 (63 catches) and caught 51 balls in ’02. Duce was always a terrific blocker, a great thing to have on a team that revolves around its star quarterback.

Buckhalter's injury, needless to say, changes everything for '04. I've expressed skepticism about Westbrook's durability and Levens ability to pick up the slack. I doubt the two will be able to accumulate 1,600 yards on the ground the way that the three-headed monster did in '03. I figure that the Levens-Westbrook duo will rush for 1,100 yards at best, and I'd anticipate seeing McNabb's rushing totals climb to 500-600 yards this season.

One thing I'm really intruiged about is the pass-catching from the backfield. The West Coast offense values watching the ball out of the backfield (Roger Craig was terrific at it with the 49ers in the late 1980's). Duce was great at it and Westbrook looked terrific last year. The three had 83 catches, which is a terrific total, but I was worried even before the season about Buckhalter's ability to contribute here, due to the fact that he only had a career 23 catches. As ’03 was Westbrook’s first full season, it is a little difficult to tell if he’ll continue to be a threat out of the backfield, but it seems reasonable to assume he'll continue to be a threat teams need to account for.

I would anticipate the loss in backfield catches will be a problem

After the backs, the rest of the offense was grim: the Birds were eleventh in passing yardage with just 188.8 yards a game (worse than Carolina or Dallas), and were sixth of sixteen teams in points scored. Simply put, the Eagles lacked any sort of threat on the outside at the wideouts. Thrash, Pinkston and Mitchell couldn't get the job done, though Pinkston dramatically improved his play late in the season and Mitchell definately improved as well. Thrash, the stone-handed reciever, was sent to D.C. to clear out room for T.O., a definate plus. While T.O.'s '03 was subpar for him: 80 catches, 1,102 yards, 9 TD's, it would be a dramatic improvement for the Eagles over the mediocre numbers the Eagles wideouts have logged since Irving Fryar left in '98.

Thrash: 49 rec, 558 yards, 1 TD
Pinkston: 36 rec, 575 yards, 2 TD’s
Mitchell: 35 rec, 498 yards, 2 TD
Lewis: 6 rec, 95 yards, 0 TD’s
McMullen: 1 rec, 2 yards, 0 TD’s
Total: 127 rec, 1,728 yards, 5 TD’s

Interestingly, I noticed that Pinkston and Mitchell both had very good yards per reception:

Pinkston: 16.0
Mitchell: 14.2

The bottom line is that T.O. will improve these numbers by himself and hopefully by bringing defensive attention, he’ll open the field for Pinkston, Mitchell and whomever else emerges. I saw that a lot in the Ravens game: Mitchell and Pinkston both looked like they were able to break away and gain separation from defenders more easily than before. They’ll see a lot of man-to-man in ’04, and I think that will translate to a lot of big plays from them.

I’m very interested to see how the tight ends do in ’04. Eagles fans expected good things from L.J. Smith in ’03, but he disappointed (the moment that stuck out in my mind was his drop on the fake field goal in the season opener. Who knows how that game would have turned out if he had caught the ball). Aside from a good game against the Falcons (6 catches, 97 yards), he didn’t do much. I’m anticipating a good season from him in ’04. (For all you fantasy football followers, I’d try and pick him up.) The West Coast system does a great job trying to work everyone into the offense and the tight end has always been a terrific threat, particularly on third down and near the goal line. Chad Lewis had a terrific season back in ’00 (69 catches, 735 yards) because McNabb often turned to him on big plays with Duce out. With Buckhalter and Duce gone, I’d look to see increased production for the tight ends. They’ll probably take a lot of those short passes that Duce used to take.

The line is always difficult to rate because there are no objective stats to use to measure a lineman’s ability. You have to look at other players and see how they perform. A running back averaging 3.5 yards a carry instead of 4.5 might be because the line can’t block anymore. Or it might be because he’s too slow in hitting the hole, and as a result his 3.5 is probably better than expected. The one objective stat we can look at is sacks allowed, and the Birds tied for 24 th most in the NFL, with 43. While someone might argue that the sacks allowed is a function of how often the Eagles pass, I’d note that the Birds were actually 25th in attempts in ’03.

So the line could probably use some improvement. Let’s hope Shawn Andrews can help there.

Quarterback? People know I’m a big fan of Donovan McNabb. He’s my favorite NFL player, and I really do think he’s the best QB the Eagles have had in a long, long time. What about his backups?

I’ve always liked Koy Detmer, despite the fact that he lacks a strong arm. (The brothers Detmer were better backups than starters.) He’s a pit bull out there, a guy who plays like he weighs three hundred pounds instead of his actual 195. I love his fire and his toughness. And he has come through big in the clutch. His performance against the 49ers in the Monday Nighter in ’02 was nothing short of spectacular. This guy is an Eagle to the core.

I do not care for Jeff Blake. While I realize that the Eagles were going to deal A.J. Feeley, I’m not thrilled to see Jeff Blake step into the breach. He’s never been an accurate passer (career 56%), and he seems to make bad decisions with frequency. The idea of Blake possibility stepping under center leaves me less-than-excited. I’d love to see Andy Hall beat Blake out for the No. 3 backup slot.

What do I forecast for the Birds offense? I figure that the Birds will score about 400 points this season. I’m guessing that the Birds will throw a lot more in ’04, so I’d forecast McNabb having 3,500 – 3,700 yards through the air. Westbrook will have a good year: 800 yards rushing, 600-700 through the air, probably 10-12 total TD's. The wideout corps will do better than their 5 TD’s in ’04, but I’d anticipate seeing T.O. only log about 70-75 catches given the attention he’ll get and McNabb’s decreased accuracy. The two players I see having big seasons are LJ (50-55 catches, probably a half-dozen or more TD’s), and Freddie (50-60 catches, a half-dozen TD’s). I wonder if Billy McMullen, a big wideout at 6-4, 210, will have a big season in ’04. He could be an outstanding compliment to T.O. He could be the Birds big sleeper in '04.

Shades of '00 ... I saw from the Eagles website that they've gone out and resigned Dorsey Levens. He'll take Buckhalter's spot in the running back rotation, giving the Eagles a Levens-Westbrook backfield for the regular season. (Ironically, the second time he's replaced Buckhalter.)

Dorsey Levens is a nice guy, but he can't cut it. He was a terrific back with the Pack, circa late 1990's but he had 2.9 yards a carry in New York in '03, and there is a lot of wear and tear there.

I hope the Eagles pick up another back and soon. Unfortunately, due to Travis Henry's injury in Buffalo, my idea about the Eagles swinging a deal to bring him down here probably won't work. Too bad.

Eagles - Steelers this thursday from The Linc. Looking forward to watching Duce back in action.

I was reading the Inquirer's columnist archives and I feel like a fool for missing this terrific article by Rich Hoffman theorizing that the Eagles organization has prospered because it was enbraced risk and change, while the Phillies have faltered due to their timidity. Well-written, interesting and thought-provoking. Worth the read.

I saw this morning on Yahoo! Sports that Willis McGahee wants to be the starter in Buffalo or be traded. That's ballsey, given that he's never taken a hand-off in a regular season game and the guy in front of him has rushed for a lot of yards (that Miami attitude breaking through), but I bet that the Bills will probably bow to their budding star and make him the starter, which means that Travis Henry has become expendable in Buffalo. I bet that the Birds could get him for less than a lot. A mid-round draft choice?

Worth looking into, fellas.

Bruce Perry, N.D. Kalu ... now this ... When I saw Correll Buckhalter flop to the grass in the first quarter against the Ravens I pretty much knew instantly that his season was over. I’ve watched enough football to know that was a pretty bad injury (nobody touches you and you fall?: bad) and so the word that Buckhalter’s season was done was unsurprising. What’s the fallout?:

-I bet Joe Banner and Andy Reid are kicking themselves for not bothering to make an offer to Eddie George know. Not only is he in Big D, but the Eagles could use his carries.

-This means Brian Westbrook is now The Man. I love Westbrook’s speed and big play ability, but his durability is a major question mark. He's not an A-back, he's an A1-back you bring in on third down and to change the pace of the game. Westbrook is also a slashing-type runner, and lacks power between the tackles. Bottom line: the Eagles have to add another tailback to help Westbrook out. He can’t carry the ball 250-300 times this season. He’ll wear out and he’ll get injured. The Birds do not want to go into the playoffs with Reno Mahe as their tailback.

-I wonder if Buckhalter’s career is done. He missed all of 2002 and now his 2004 is finished. How is his knee going to look?

-I suspected that the Eagles pass-run ratio was going to be something like 60-40 pass without Duce, but now I figure it will be 65-35 or worse. I hope the line can protect McNabb. ’04 is going to look a little like ’00 in that the Eagles won’t have the kind of durable running game they need in the backfield. The Eagles hopes and dreams rest squarely on McNabb’s shoulders.

Aside from that, the Birds looked pretty good. McNabb was a little off-target in his throws to T.O., and T.O. made some bad reads (that pick by Ed Reed was probably T.O.'s fault), but they'll get into a groove. I think that Freddie, Pinkston and L.J. got some great open looks.

Defensively, while the Ravens are hardly the Rams, the Birds looked much improved. I didn't like seeing how Sheldon Brown and Lito Shepard got out-muscled on the corners but they played decently well (despite getting out-jumped by Travis Taylor, Sheldon Brown did defend that throw from Kyle Boller fairly well). I loved seeing how much better the D-line looked. Kearse, in particular, played like a demon. Sweet!

Here are my thoughts on how the playoffs will unfold. First the AFC...

AFC
Wildcard
(3) New England over (6) Jacksonville, 34-3
(5) New York Jets over (4) Baltimore, 17-14

Divisional
(2) Kansas City over (3) New England, 27-23
(1) Indianapolis over (5) New York Jets, 41-14

AFC Championship
(2) Kansas City over (1) Indianapolis, 34-27

The Patriots have expirience and skill and they'll make short work of the green Jags. The Jets-Ravens matchup is intruiging. To me, it is a lot like last year's Ravens-Titans game, where the wildcard team was clearly superior to the division-winner. Again I think that the Jets are better than the Ravens, who are a one-trick pony kind of team.

In round two I like the Chiefs in a bit of an upset. I think having to go on the road will be disconcerting for the Patriots and I think that they will struggle against the Chiefs, who will be a lot tougher on defense in 2004. I think the Colts will be difficult to beat at home under the dome. I don't see the Jets having much success, especially given that this will be their second road game in a row.

I like the Chiefs in the AFC title game because I think that Dick Vermeil will have these guys fired up to avenge last season's defeat. The Chiefs will be in their first Super Bowl since Super Bowl IV.

NFC

Wildcard
(3) Philadelphia over (6) St. Louis, 31-21
(4) Atlanta over (5) Carolina, 20-13

Divisional
(3) Philadelphia over (2) Minnesota, 28-20
(1) Seattle over (4) Atlanta, 34-17

NFC Championship
(3) Philadelphia over (1) Seattle, 19-16

It seems fitting that the Eagles and Rams will tangle in the playoffs, and even more fitting to see the Eagles beat them at home. I think the Eagles are just as explosive as the Rams on offense and a little better on defense. Homefield might be decisive factor. Meanwhile Vick will propel the Falcons to a win over the Panthers in what will be a pretty exciting game.

In round two I see the Eagles upsetting the Vikings on the road. I don't know why, but the Eagles experience will win-out over the Vikings, who have flamed-out in the clutch before. Meanwhile, Seattle is too balanced for Vick, who can't carry the Falcons against a deep team.

Finally, in their fourth consecutive NFC title game I see the Eagles winning on the road over the Seahawks. In a word: experience.

Super Bowl XXXIX
(NFC) Philadelphia over (AFC) Kansas City, 28-24

Yeah, maybe I'm a little too optimistic, but I could see these Eagles winning it all. None of us expected last year's team to make it to the NFC title game, especially after that 0-2 start, but that is the way the NFL works: seemingly weaker teams find their pace down the stretch and come up in a big way in the playoffs because they find a way to shield their weaknesses or find themselves playing teams that can't take advantage of their flaws. (The Panthers were weak stretching the field and would have had difficulty keeping up with the Eagles offense, but the Panthers defense kept the Eagles in shackles.)

I think that the Eagles will use their superior experience to go to Jacksonville for the Super Bowl and that they'll win it all.

NFC Predictions ...

East Div.
Philadelphia 11-5
Dallas 9-7
Washington 8-8
New York Giants 5-11

North Div.
Minnesota 12-4
Detroit 9-7
Green Bay 7-9
Chicago 7-9

South Div.
Atlanta 10-6
Carolina 10-6 (WC)
Tampa Bay 9-7
New Orleans 4-12

West Div.
Seattle 12-4
St. Louis 10-6 (WC)
Arizona 5-11
San Francisco 4-12


NFC East: Predicting the division your own team plays in is difficult because your heart and your head are oftentimes in disagreement. I admit that there are things about the Eagles that make me nervous: the cornerback situation is troubling in a season where we are going to be facing the Rams, Randy Moss, Keyshawn Johnson, Jeremy Shockey and a host of other big-time pass catching threats. And I'm less confident that the Eagles can absorb the defection of Duce Staley, whose personality and toughness were a critical X-factor in the Eagles three trips to the NFC title game. But I still think that the Eagles are the best team in the division and, at a minimum, I think they can stay ahead of the Cowboys and the rest of the pack. I'm intruiged by how McNabb is going to do with a top-flight wideout like T.O., I'm eager to see how big a season L.J. Smith has, and I think that Dhani Jones and Jevon Kearse are going to have big seasons for the Eagles. This is the best team in the division still. I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. They seemed to lay down and quit against the Panthers in the playoffs, and I don't think Drew Henson is going to be The Man in big-D for some time. Is Eddie George up to the job of being The Man II in D? I dunno. A better fit for him would have been splitting duties with Westbrook and Buckhalter, but c'est la vie. Still, this team is pretty good, possibily playoff good. They are good on defense and their offense should be better with Meshawn out there. Bill Parcells is still a master strategist, but I still wonder when Jerry Jones is going to stick his nose in Parcells business. I say this team is a little worse in terms of its record in '04 because of the tougher schedule, but otherwise this is a good team. As for the Redskins, these guys are a big if. I wasn't worried about their budget-busting spending spree last summer because it was clear that Steve Spurrier hadn't a clue how to coach in the NFL. Now that the 'Skins have rehired Joe Gibbs I'm reminded of something Robert E. Lee said after winning one of his many triumphs against Union Generals: "I'm afraid some day that they'll send me to fight someone I can't figure out." Now that Spurrier is gone, is Joe Gibbs that guy for the Eagles? I'm not sure: Gibbs was a terrific coach but the game has changed a lot since he won Super Bowl XXVI in '91. I don't think that Patrick Ramsey is going to be a top-flight QB, but he's competent, and with Clinton Portis in the backfield these guys will finally be able to run the ball effectively, which worries me. Still, I don't see these guys as anything but a third-place team.

As for the New York Giants, I hope Jesse Palmer doesn't have to see any duty this season because the poor guy is going to be mocked unmercifully for The Bachelor. And what is a pious guy like Kurt Warner doing in New York City? How easy can an observant Christian like Warner co-exist with a boozing sexaholic like Shlockey? This is a team with a lot of stories and a lot of poor fits. And mark my words, Tom Coughlin is going to get into trouble up there with his brutal disciplinarian style. I don't see them working out. This team might be ready to play in '05, but I think that '04 is a lost cause.


NFC North: I know that the Vikings are kind of a chic pick to win the division, but I can see why. They played with a lot of momentum down the stretch last year and they look like a much better team than they have been in the past. The problem is with Randy Moss. When he joined the league in 1998 I thought that he was going to obliterate the record book: his height and jumping ability were astonishing. I didn't think that anyone could cover him. Moss' problem is that he stops himself with his selfish play and ego-centric "me"-first attitude. If Moss is happy and willing to put forth more than 75% effort (100% is a forlorn hope), I can see this team going 12-4. There are things I don't like about the Vikings, like Culpepper's turnover-prone play and Moss' attitude, but I think that this team has way too much talent not to win the division. These guys could go 12-4, but they could also go 6-10. We'll see.

As for the rest of the division, I like the direction that the Detroit Lions are going in. Steve Marriucci is a good coach and I think that he'll drill these guys well. Joey Harrington will have a big year too. If you are looking for a sleeper team, look at the Lions.

I don't forecast good things being afoot for the Packers. There has to be some fall-out from January's disasterous loss to the Eagles in the playoffs. From the 4th-and-26 play to Brett Farve's duck toss to Brian Dawkins, I don't think that I have ever seen a team implode more spectacularly. These guys will have to shake that off and come to grips with the fact that their division is a lot tougher now. The Vikings are better and the Lions are better. I don't see this as a good year for the Pack or for Brett Favre. This might be the season where he starts showing a decline in his skills. As for the Bears ... if they could play defense only this would be a great team. Brian Urlacher is a terrific linebacker, probably one of the best in the NFL with Ray Lewis, and their defensive unit plays well. I hate the rest of the team. It was a small miracle that they went 12-4 in '01 with the terrible offensive unit they had. Until they dramatically upgrade at quarterback (Kordell Stewart? C'mon!) the defense will have to carry these guys, which they can only do so much.

NFC South: This is, New Orleans excepted, the toughest division in the tougher conference. I can see the Bucs, the Falcons and the Panthers all winning the division, but I like the Falcons here. The biggest wildcard is Michael Vick.

He was electrifying on a mediocre team in 2002 and in his return at the end of the 2003 season he showed real brilliance. There are few players in the NFL as talented as Vick, and his athletic ability give him the opportunity to break a game wide-open in a single play. For that reason I bet that the Falcons will take the division over two teams that are probably more talented and solid: Vick is the difference-maker. He'll have a big year in 2004. I'll be shocked if he isn't one of the top three vote-getters in the MVP voting. As for the Panthers, I like them a lot. I don't think they are a fluke at all: they are a very solid defensive-oriented team with a terrific running game. Can't beat that: got to be worth ten wins and a wildcard. I like the Buccaneers too, because Jon Gruden is such a terrific strategist and their defense is still pretty darn good. Maybe better now that Warren Sapp is gone. I don't like how lousy their offense looks. Brad Johnson is a so-so QB and the rest of their offensive unit is pretty mediocre. I think they are the weakest of the group of three contenders. As for the Saints, the less said the better. This team is truly cursed. I don't like Aaron Brooks, their management or the quality of their offensive unitor their defensive unit, for that matter. A little talent, and no heart whatsoever. Last place. Top 5 draft pick in the '05 Draft.

NFC West: I like the Seattle Seahawks. I know most people won't see it, but this might be the best team in the conference after the Iggles. Hasselback has really become a terrific starter (ignore his misplaced bravado in last January's Packers-Seahawks game), a potential MVP candidate and a real leader. They have a terrific running game, a good defense, a smart coach ... I give them the edge over St. Louis.

Speaking of which ... I like St. Louis but I don't much care for Marc Bulger. He's too inconsistent, too prone to making ill-advised throws. This is a good, explosive team being held back by its quarterback. Were it not for Bulger, I'd put the Rams ahead of Seattle. Otherwise, the Rams are fine. In fact, I'd bet that they'll make the playoffs as a wildcard, but I don't see this team beating out Seattle. Seattle is the future, the Rams are the past.

Arizona is going to be a better team with Pitt wideout Larry Fitzgerald, but I wouldn't count on it too soon. This is a team that has about fifty years of bad karma to kick. I honestly think that the San Francisco 49ers are one of the worst teams in the NFL. I remember what I huge fan I was of them back in the glory days of Montana and Young because of their philosophy towards winning. It pains me to see them decline and fall like this, but without Garcia, and without T.O., this team has very little talent after (former Pitt) running back Kevan Barlow. These guys are shooting for a Top 5 draft pick.

(Run, Marshall, run!)

Misc. predictions: Marshall Faulk will have 1,200 yards rushing ... Vick, Donovan and Hasselbach will be the top 3 MVP vote-getters, and Vick will win ... Kearse gets 15 sacks ... T.J. Duckett will have a big year ...

Okay ... playoffs ...

A survey of the top sports towns says Philly is #9! (and rising) (...okay, I made up the rising, but its gotta be true...) Pittsburgh is #24, in case anyone was wondering. Number 1? Bah-ston. ("Nomah!")

Wicked awesome.

A 1950’s-era NFL quarterback like the Cleveland Browns Otto Graham or Detroit’s Bobby Layne would be baffled by the current generation’s approach to the game and their responsibilities. Gone are the gun-slingers who are given the ball and told to win the game by any means necessary. In the NFL’s cautious, compartmentalized, risk-adverse culture, QB’s aren’t field generals, but mid-level officers relaying orders from the sideline. Defensive units and running games are expected to supplement the QB, if not take the responsibility of winning the game out of his hands. To me the quintessential 2000-era NFL QB is Jay Fiedler, the Dolphins signal-caller whose task has been largely to hand-off to Ricky Williams, make a few throws on third down and let the defense control the game. With fewer exceptions, like the Packers Bret Favre, QB’s are asked not to lose, rather than to win.

Which makes the 2004 season such an interesting one for Donovan McNabb. It will be his fifth as the Eagles quarterback, and hopefully the season where he will break-out and become the new Bret Favre, the new Joe Montana / Steve Young. McNabb 2004 MVP? We'll see.

He finished second in the MVP voting in ’00 when he was the Eagles entire offense. NFL voters were impressed by how McNabb was largely given the ball and asked to win it for the Eagles. No caution then, but since, the Eagles have played a more conservative scheme relying on the running game more and Donovan has been eclipsed by flashier players like the Falcons Michael Vick. An impressive season could give Donovan his first MVP award. First a look back at the past …

’03 was, in many respects, Donovan’s finest season. After the disaster of the first six games, McNabb picked it up a notch following his 9-for-23 performance in New York (thank-you, Brian Westbrook the Miracle II) and rescued the Eagles season. Check out the tale of two seasons:

Weeks 1-7: 91 / 190; 47.9%; 854 yards; 2 TD / 6 INT
Weeks 8-17: 184 / 288; 63.9%; 2,362 yards; 14 TD / 5 INT

Remarkably, despite the horror of Weeks 1-7, McNabb lodged some pretty good numbers for the entire season: his 57.5% completion percentage is in line with his career rate of 57% (note: McNabb’s career numbers are slightly impacted by his awful rookie year when he hit on just 49% of his passes). McNabb’s 6.73 yards per attempt in 2003 were actually a career high for him. His 79.6 QB rating was actually higher than his MVP-runner-up 2000 campaign (77.8).

Of course the nock against McNabb has been his accuracy: Favre and Young and Montana worked within the West Coast scheme and typically hit on 64% of their throws. McNabb has averaged about 57-58% each season, not terribly impressive given that the Eagles scheme utilizes shorter-ranged throws to running backs to move the ball. There are two important reasons to expect that to change in ’04:

1. Simply put, McNabb will have better targets to throw to: Terrell Owens is an upgrade over James Thrash. The Eagles hope that T.O. will have a ripple effect: T.O. will see plenty of schemes rolling the safety towards his direction, which will in turn isolate Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston in single coverage, and likely force teams to cover L.J. Smith with linebackers and possibly leave Buckhalter and Westbrook unaccounted for. Strategy favors the Eagles.

2. How is this for a thought: Donovan is getting better as a QB before T.O. even got here. Certainly Weeks 8-17 belie the idea of McNabb as being a QB who can’t hit 60%+ of his passes: for a sustained ten game period McNabb was a ruthlessly accurate passer (nearly 64%) who averaged 236 yards passing a game. Most impressively, McNabb went from averaging 4.49 yards a pass to 8.20 in weeks 8-17 … a dramatic improvement over his career 6.16 yards per pass. All this throwing to James Thrash and Chad Lewis, instead of T.O. and L.J. … If McNabb does in ’04 what he did in Weeks 8-17, he should throw for 3,776 yards (career high), and 22 TD passes.

Certainly I think that the opportunity for Donovan to have a career year in '04 are there. Will it happen? We'll see. Here is my prediction for Donovan in '04: 62% completion rate, 3,500+ yards (400+ yards rushing), 21-23 TD's (2-4 running as well), 13-15 INT's.

MVP? Wait and see.

AFC Predictions!

East Div.
New England 10-6
New York Jets 10-6 (WC)
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 5-11

North Div.
Baltimore 9-7
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cincinnati 7-9
Cleveland 4-12

South Div.
Indianapolis 13-3
Jacksonville 10-6 (WC)
Tennessee 6-10
Houston 5-11

West Div.
Kansas City 11-5
Denver 8-8
Oakland 5-11
San Diego 5-11

Division-by-division:

NFC East: I like the Patriots, even though they are due for a let-down in 2004. This is a team every bit as good as last year's (if not better thanks to Corey Dillon) with smart management and coaching ... I tend to think that they'll fall short of defending their title (difficult to repeat in the modern NFL), but frankly it is a very good possibility.

I like the Jets too because I think this team will have recovered from Washington's raid last summer and Pennington is a terrific leader and field general. They'll challenge the Patriots, but I don't think that they have the horses. Will Curtis Martin continue to hold up as their workhorse back? Or will all of those carries finally catch up to him? If Martin is healthy and plays well, they could win the AFC East.

As for the Dolphins, give me a break. This team always makes big changes, talks about changing its philosophy and commits itself to retooling, and still falls short. Even before Ricky Williams retired I had these guys in third. The question is now: will they fall to 4th? I like A.J. a lot, but he's in a difficult situation down there. Bad management, bad chemistry. I don't see it working out.

I like Drew Bledsoe a lot too, but the Bills are still recovering from losing Peerless Price. I think they are shooting for third place, at best.

AFC North: Probably the weakest division in football. All of these teams have flaws and problems, but the best-off are the Ravens. True, they look awful on offense (think out of the box, boys: forward pass), but I think that they are going to win the division because their stifling defense shuts people down. I don't care for Ray Lewis The Human Being, but Ray Lewis The Linebacker is the best in the NFL. These guys can win 3-0 games. I think the Steelers are going to be better, and I could see them capturing the division, but I think that Ray Lewis will enable the Ravens to triumph in their head-to-head matchups.

I think the Steelers will play better on offense (particularly if they go with Duce instead of Bettis), but the D is still vulnerable to the pass and the offensive line is porous. These guys are a year away from reclaiming the division. The Bengals are pretenders. They looked good for a few weeks last fall, but don't be fooled: they are average and Carson Palmer is going to struggle. The Browns? I keep thinking that they are going to turn a corner and become a decent team, but Jeff Garcia isn't the answer at QB and this team has too many holes. I am intruiged by Kellen Winslow playing the Steelers twice a year. Mark my words, this guy is going to become to Steelers fans what Jeremy Shockey is to us: the personification of all that is evil and bad with the world.


AFC South: I love the Colts for the division title. These guys are going to steamroll the competition. They have it all: a running game, big-time passing game, a good defense ... This is probably the best team in the conference. I like the Jaguars too because I think that these guys have improved and Byron Leftwich is going to have a terrific year. These guys are a real wildcard because there is no way to figure out how good they'll be. I tend to think that they'll surprise people and have a terrific season.

The biggest wildcard here are the Titans. I love Steve McNair: he is gritty, tough, talented, a winner. He could get these guys 10-6 and in the playoffs, but I think that their free agency squeeze makes 2004 a rebuilding year for them. The Texans will be decent, but the three teams ahead of them are stronger. Next year, fellas.

AFC West: The biggest wildcard. How are the Chiefs going to respond to last year's debacle? This team was 9-0 and seemingly was bound for Houston, but then the wheels completely fell off the bus to Super Bowl XXVIII. I bet they'll be very good in '04. Second best in the conference and deadly in the playoffs. I don't think that there is another team in the NFL that is more explosive on offense.

The Broncos will be okay too, but something isn't right in Denver. These guys should be better than they are. I wonder how their running game will hold up with Portis in D.C. I know Mike Shanahan thinks he can mold lower-round running backs into Pro Bowlers because he did with Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson, but I'm not so sure this Griffin guy will work out. Otherwise, this is a pretty interesting team. They could go 8-8 or 12-4.

The Raiders won't be that good in 2004 because they got so old so fast. Give them a year and they'll be back in it. The Chargers have major problems. Good luck LT!


Next: the NFC!

SI's Peter King logged his training camp notes on Friday. Nice piece, as usual: King has a terrific ear for what the fans want to hear. King isn't a difficult writer, a statement that I say in praise of him: he communicates with the readers simply and effortlessly, with a real conversational tone. He's one of the better writers in sports.

Anyway, King makes some interesting points: L.J. Smith will be better but the Eagles like to spread the ball and won't commit just to him with Lewis still healthy, Sheldon Brown and Lito Shepard are still big question marks, and T.O. is happy ... really, he is. (It was mildly disturbing to hear that T.O. appeared bugged by the fans booing him for dropping a pass in practice. Hey, T.O.: this is a tough town.)

MVP for Donovan? Lots of positive talk...

Sportscenter crew was at Lehigh the other day talking about how happy T.O. is to be an Eagle. Sigh.

Scary to hear about Dawkins being injured again. It was frustrating watching the D get so depleted in the preseason and then get hit so hard in the season opener. The good news is that Jevon Kearse looks to be playing so good football. He could get 15-18 sacks this season, easily.

More later.

I saw on TV the other day that T.O.’s Eagles jersey has become the No. 1 selling NFL jersey. I thought that was pretty cool stuff to hear because I was used to hearing the usual suspects at the top of the list: Vick, Urlacher, Favre, etc. I have two NFL jerseys: a green Donovan McNabb my fiancée bought for me, Christmas of 2002; and I have a white Steelers jersey (Antwan Randel El, #82) that I picked up from the going-out-of-business sale at the Downtown Pittsburgh Lazarus-Macys. I considered buying an Urlacher because they were practically giving them away, but instead I bought a Minnesota Timberwolves jersey (#10, Wally Sczerbiak), which I regret: I’m just not cool enough to wear NBA stuff. As tempted as I am to join the crowd and get a T.O. jersey, I can’t right now because I’m pretty dirt poor. In any case, if I had money I’d probably get a white Kearse jersey right now because I like to march to the beat of my own drummer.



It has always amazed me to see just how popular NFL apparel is: go to a game and see how many people are wearing it and contrast that with other sports. Hockey and baseball jerseys are fairly pricey, so most people can’t afford them, though I’ve always noticed that the NHL always beats out MLB. NBA? I don’t believe that anyone can wear NBA apparel unless they are under the age of 21. But NFL gear is everywhere: whenever I watch an Eagles game I see a sea of green jerseys.

I always love seeing who guys select for their jerseys. I wanted a McNabb and I got one, because I admire McNabb for his leadership and talent. In all of the time I’ve been an Eagles fan, I think I can safely say that Donovan has been the best field general this team has had. (Jim McMahon did a good job back in ’91.) I see lots of people wear #22’s for Duce, because he’s a real blue-collar, down-in-the-trenches sort of guy.

I see a lot of #20’s and the like for the defense. I’ve always noticed with the Eagles that jerseys for guys belonging to the D have always out-sold jerseys for the guys on offense. During the days of Reggie White and Jerome Brown during the late 80’s and early 90’s, you’d see more #99’s and #92’s at the game than anyone else.

Who’s jersey do you have?

Just a little under two weeks until the start of the pre-season on Friday night (August 13) against the Patriots. I enjoy the pre-season a lot, mostly to watch those guys get into the game in the 3rd and 4th quarters who are battling to get a spot on the team. They play with terrific heart and you really want to root for them.

Anybody know if the game will be nationally televised? I doubt I'll get to watch it, but it would be nice to have the option...

I’ve gotten some questions about who I am and what this blog is all about, so where is a FAQ of sorts:

Q: Where do you live?
A: Wexford (Pittsburgh), by way of Downingtown, PA. I graduated from Downingtown Senior High in 1995, and then I came to Pittsburgh in that year to go to college at the University of Pittsburgh. I stayed for law school at Duquesne University.
Q: If you live in Pittsburgh, why a blog devoted to the Eagles?
A: Good question. I’ve spent the last nine years of my life in Western Pennsylvania and, while I like it and while I like the local sports teams, in my heart I remain a Eagles / Phillies / Flyers fan. These are the teams I grew up with, rooted for, and suffered through the agony of their defeat. That means something. I remember a few months ago an article in SI written about the UNC-Duke rivalry: noting that UNC educated in-state students exclusively and that Duke was almost entirely full of out-of-staters, the author (a true-blue UNC fan) complained about the rootless, transitory experience Duke typified, as contrasted with the warm, homey UNC. The article had a big effect on me: I live in Pittsburgh but I root for Philly sports teams because that is a bond that I have and I think that people (especially in Pittsburgh) can respect that desire to keep with your roots and be true to who you are. And I am an Iggles fan.
Q: So do you dislike Pittsburgh teams or something?
A: Heck no. I like the Stillers, and just a few weeks ago my best man (I’m getting married in 5 weeks) and I shouted ourselves hoarse watching the Penguins blank the Stars 4-0. The Pirates? I’m hopeful they are getting better (they seem to be) and let me just tell you that PNC Park is a gorgeous place to watch baseball. And I went to Pitt, so you know who I’m rooting for on Saturdays.
Q: Okay. Favorite Eagle?
A: Donovan McNabb. Best QB the Eagles have had since Jaws. You can’t tell me different.
Q: Second?
A: It used to be Duce, but now it's Brian Dawkins. I love his energy and emotion. He’s old-school. You could just see him hitting guys wearing a leather helmet in the 1940s.
Q: Favorite Eagles moment?
A: I’m tempted to say Mitchell’s 4th-and-26 grab against the Packers, or the Miracle at the Meadowlands II (Brian Westbrook’s punt return against the G-men), but I have to go with the Eagles-49ers Monday Night Football game in ’02: everyone thought that the Eagles were going to be awful without McNabb but Koy and A.J. pitched a heck of a game and the birds played with a lot of fire and determination. It was the game that saved the ’02 season.
Q: Second favorite?
A: Gotta be the Cowboys-Eagles season-opener in ’00. It was the blast that opened the Reid / McNabb era and eviscerated the Cowboys. Since the Eagles won that game they’ve gone 45-18 and have been to the NFC title game 3 times. I remembered watching the Eagles open the game with the on-side kick, and then I just spent the rest of the game jumping for joy. The Eagles spent the first quarter pounding away at the ‘Boys and led 21-0 on their way to a 41-13 romp. The frustration of watching the ‘Boys win those Super Bowls in the 90’s with their band of felons was washed away. The Eagles had arrived.
Q: Ever been to an Eagles game?
A: Sadly no. Tixs were always too expensive and I’ve been in college for the last few years. Never been to a Stillers game either, though I went to plenty of Pitt football games in college. Actually got to see a McNabb-led Syracuse team beat Pitt in a 32-27 thriller in ’97. (Great game: it was about twenty degrees outside with snow flurries. The Orange led 19-0 going into the fourth quarter when Pitt went on a 27-7 run to take the lead 27-26 before Donovan led the Orange back to win with a late TD.)
Q: How did you start your blog?
A: I had heard of blogs with reference to the election: the Howard Dean campaign had largely built their organization via the internet and their blog was critical to enlisting help. I thought it was neat, but hadn’t a clue about how to make one. Then I went to a lecture at my law school on internet research. The professor told us about Blogger and how easy it was. Voila! I set up The Bird Blog and then A Citizen’s Blog. Blogging the Phils has been rough this year with how lousy they’ve played. I’m looking forward to the fall campaign with the birds.
Q: So you blog the Phils and Birds. What else do you do?
A: I graduated from law school in June and I took the bar last month. Right now I’m looking for a job and I’m moving into my new apartment with my fiancée in a suburb north of Pittsburgh called Wexford. I’m not sure right yet what I want to do with my shiny new law degree. I’d like to work for a D.A.’s office, but we’ll see. As for my spare time, I follow politics and world affairs pretty closely, but I won’t tell you my partisan affiliation. I like to read a lot: I have a bunch of John le Carre novels sitting on my bookshelf that I want to dive into, as well as some non-fiction. I'm also a big fan of tv's 24 & Alias. I also love VH1's Best Week Ever.
Q: Favorite non-sports links?
A: Aint-It-Cool-News for its terrific snipits about movies and tv shows before they get released.

Anything else anyone wants to know?

Reading this article about Eddie George wanting to be an Eagle is downright painful. He could have fit in the team's salary-cap plans, would have added depth in the backfield and leadership in the clubhouse, and best of all: we wouldn't have to play against him twice a year! With Duce gone and George in big D, I have a nagging feeling that the position of running back is going to cause big, big problems for the team in '04.

Nice article by Phil Sheridan about Trotter playing his way into the starting middle linebacker position. The Eagles have gotten away with weak play from the position for the last two years, so hopefully Trotter is rested and ready for the job. With games against Marshall Faulk, Clinton Portis, Eddie George, Duce, Jamal Lewis and Stephen Davis, the Eagles are going to see a lot of good running backs. Gotta shut 'em down...

Bob Brookover wrote another "T.O. is happy" stories for Monday's Inquirer. (No link, sorry.) Whenever you hear someone professing about how happy they are over and over, it should start to make you worry.

According to Brookover, the Eagles got 6,200 fans at Lehigh. Not a bad turnout.

I was stunned to see Ricky Williams retire from the game this last week. Given the fact that he has always had such a quirky personality, I guess this wasn’t much of a surprise, but I’m most interested in seeing what this does for the Dolphins. I know the fans are pissed in Miami, but they'll get over it fast. Honestly, I think this could be good news for them: few people remember it, but the Packers were actually better after they lost All-Pro wide-out Sterling Sharpe. The team’s passing attack became diversified and less reliant on one threat and Favre really flourished into a Hall of Famer. I could see that happening to the Dolphins: they could finally take the shackles off the offense and not feel compelled to hammer between the tackles all of the time. Let A.J. throw it deep. I know the Dolphins management is bitter about what happened, but I think this could be a real blessing for these guys, if they play their cards right and view this as an opportunity to become less predictable than they have been in the past.

As for Ricky, I wish him well and I hope that he’ll be alright. More than that, I hope he finds what he’s looking for in life. It obviously wasn’t football.

T.O. says he's happy ... keep your fingers crossed.