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Monday, August 09, 2004

AFC Predictions! 

AFC Predictions!

East Div.
New England 10-6
New York Jets 10-6 (WC)
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 5-11

North Div.
Baltimore 9-7
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cincinnati 7-9
Cleveland 4-12

South Div.
Indianapolis 13-3
Jacksonville 10-6 (WC)
Tennessee 6-10
Houston 5-11

West Div.
Kansas City 11-5
Denver 8-8
Oakland 5-11
San Diego 5-11

Division-by-division:

NFC East: I like the Patriots, even though they are due for a let-down in 2004. This is a team every bit as good as last year's (if not better thanks to Corey Dillon) with smart management and coaching ... I tend to think that they'll fall short of defending their title (difficult to repeat in the modern NFL), but frankly it is a very good possibility.

I like the Jets too because I think this team will have recovered from Washington's raid last summer and Pennington is a terrific leader and field general. They'll challenge the Patriots, but I don't think that they have the horses. Will Curtis Martin continue to hold up as their workhorse back? Or will all of those carries finally catch up to him? If Martin is healthy and plays well, they could win the AFC East.

As for the Dolphins, give me a break. This team always makes big changes, talks about changing its philosophy and commits itself to retooling, and still falls short. Even before Ricky Williams retired I had these guys in third. The question is now: will they fall to 4th? I like A.J. a lot, but he's in a difficult situation down there. Bad management, bad chemistry. I don't see it working out.

I like Drew Bledsoe a lot too, but the Bills are still recovering from losing Peerless Price. I think they are shooting for third place, at best.

AFC North: Probably the weakest division in football. All of these teams have flaws and problems, but the best-off are the Ravens. True, they look awful on offense (think out of the box, boys: forward pass), but I think that they are going to win the division because their stifling defense shuts people down. I don't care for Ray Lewis The Human Being, but Ray Lewis The Linebacker is the best in the NFL. These guys can win 3-0 games. I think the Steelers are going to be better, and I could see them capturing the division, but I think that Ray Lewis will enable the Ravens to triumph in their head-to-head matchups.

I think the Steelers will play better on offense (particularly if they go with Duce instead of Bettis), but the D is still vulnerable to the pass and the offensive line is porous. These guys are a year away from reclaiming the division. The Bengals are pretenders. They looked good for a few weeks last fall, but don't be fooled: they are average and Carson Palmer is going to struggle. The Browns? I keep thinking that they are going to turn a corner and become a decent team, but Jeff Garcia isn't the answer at QB and this team has too many holes. I am intruiged by Kellen Winslow playing the Steelers twice a year. Mark my words, this guy is going to become to Steelers fans what Jeremy Shockey is to us: the personification of all that is evil and bad with the world.


AFC South: I love the Colts for the division title. These guys are going to steamroll the competition. They have it all: a running game, big-time passing game, a good defense ... This is probably the best team in the conference. I like the Jaguars too because I think that these guys have improved and Byron Leftwich is going to have a terrific year. These guys are a real wildcard because there is no way to figure out how good they'll be. I tend to think that they'll surprise people and have a terrific season.

The biggest wildcard here are the Titans. I love Steve McNair: he is gritty, tough, talented, a winner. He could get these guys 10-6 and in the playoffs, but I think that their free agency squeeze makes 2004 a rebuilding year for them. The Texans will be decent, but the three teams ahead of them are stronger. Next year, fellas.

AFC West: The biggest wildcard. How are the Chiefs going to respond to last year's debacle? This team was 9-0 and seemingly was bound for Houston, but then the wheels completely fell off the bus to Super Bowl XXVIII. I bet they'll be very good in '04. Second best in the conference and deadly in the playoffs. I don't think that there is another team in the NFL that is more explosive on offense.

The Broncos will be okay too, but something isn't right in Denver. These guys should be better than they are. I wonder how their running game will hold up with Portis in D.C. I know Mike Shanahan thinks he can mold lower-round running backs into Pro Bowlers because he did with Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson, but I'm not so sure this Griffin guy will work out. Otherwise, this is a pretty interesting team. They could go 8-8 or 12-4.

The Raiders won't be that good in 2004 because they got so old so fast. Give them a year and they'll be back in it. The Chargers have major problems. Good luck LT!


Next: the NFC!

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