Friday, August 27, 2004
D!
When I first started watching the Eagles back during the Buddy Ryan era (1989), the heart and soul of the team was its defense. The offense led by Randall Cunningham was plagued with inconsistency. They were a united perpetually divided over whether Cunningham should be a pocket passer or a scrambler, and they lacked the kind of sustained ground game necessary for real success in the NFL. (It wasn’t until Ricky Watters and Charlie Garner joined the team did they get a real ground game.)
The defense, on the other hand, was Gang Green, the fearsome unit that shut-down opposing offenses and didn’t give an inch. Guys like Clyde Simmons, Reggie White, Seth Joyner, Jerome Brown were the best of the best and, week in and week out, made the Eagles a tough opponent to face off with. Since then the Eagles have changed, but the primacy of the defensive unit remains. It is the heart and soul of the Eagles. You could hardly imagine the Eagles as the Rams, with their Max Q offense burning up the league. No, the Eagles can be prodigious scorers on offense, but they will always be about their tough, gritty, blue-collar defense.
Surprisingly, the Eagles Defense was awful in ’03: tenth in the conference in overall yardage allowed, eighth in passing yards allowed, and thirteenth (13!) in rushing yardage allowed (129.4 yards a game, far worse than the Cowboys conference-leading 89.1) … The sole area that the Eagles excelled at in ‘03 was the most important, however: keeping opponents out of the end zone. The Birds allowed the third fewest points in the conference: 17.9, compared to the Cowboys 16.3. Where the Birds defense excelled at in ’03 was in turnover margin and on third down:
The Eagles had 22 giveaways v. 26 takeaways (+4). The Cowboys, despite fearsome stats, were too error-prone in ’03, going -4 in the margin. Don’t count on a Bill Parcells teams being that sloppy in ’04 again. The Birds also were the fourth stingiest team in the NFC on third downs, allowing just 35.3% of all attempts. The Eagles defense allowed just 31% of all third-down conversions in ’02, best in the conference. In short: the birds gave up the yards by the bushel, but they were more likely to force turnovers and force punts than give up points. This bend, bend, bend, but never break philosophy enabled the Eagles to squeak out some close victories. Six of the Eagles 12 wins were by 7 points or less. Until the final week of the season the Eagles failed to hold any foe to single-digits, something they did four times in 2002.
So why were the Eagles so bad in ’03? Injuries? Maybe. Brian Dawkins and Bobby Taylor missed roughly half of the season, most of the defensive line didn’t make it out of the preseason, and Carlos Emmons and Troy Vincent went down at critical junctures … Emmons injury in particular hurt: the team already had difficulty stopping the run and the Carolina Panthers took full advantage in the NFC title game. The Birds rushing defense was ridiculously incapable of stopping anyone, as evidenced by the number of 100-yard rushers in 2003: Ahman Green, Kevan Barlow, Ricky Williams, etc. The Birds surrendered 4.5 yards per carry. With a healthy Emmons on the field, there is no telling how different the title game might have been. (Or it might not have been different. It might have just been 10-3 or 7-3.)
But injuries might only be half of the story: the undeniable fact of the Eagles recent strategy has been to get smaller and quicker. The shift, after Jeremiah Trotter’s departure to D.C. in ‘02, from Levon Kirkland and Barry Gardner in the middle to Mark Simoneau was a big move for the Eagles organization: the team went smaller and quicker and sacrificed power and strength for speed and agility.
The likely reason for the shift was the Eagles experience chasing Michael Vick in the Bird 20-6 victory in the NFC Divisional game: the elusive Vick clearly scared the Eagles brain-trust (understandable, given that the previous week Vick led the Flacons to a stunning upset of the Packers) and had given them fits. The Birds played it safe all game long, playing back, clearly afraid to get burned in a blitz by Vick’s agility. The decision to go quicker was probably made in light of the divisional round game, the organization knowing they’d be going to the Georgia Dome for a (then seemingly) critical game and then fearful they’d have to face Vick in the playoffs. Until Vick got injured and the Defensive line turned into a M.A.S.H. unit, it was probably a smart move to make the Eagles linebacking corps a quicker unit. A depleted defensive line meant that the linebackers rapidly became the front line of defense on running plays. It is interesting to note that Strong Safety Michael Lewis logged 86 tackles in ’03, third-most after Linebackers Simoneau and Nate Wayne.
Will the Eagles better in ’04?
I’m not too thrilled so far. The Steelers ran right through the linebacking corps, so I wonder if Lewis and Dawkins will be making lots and lots of tackles in ’04. The D-line looks better with Kearse, but I wonder how losing N.D. Kalu, a quietly effective pass-rusher, will hurt. Honestly, I can’t forecast the Eagles being much better against the run, so birds fans had better get used to Stephen Davis and Clinton Portis and Eddie George having big games. It is inevitable. I do think that the secondary will be better than advertised due to the presence of Kearse collapsing the pocket.
How do I think the Eagles season will unfold? The Eagles open the season with a pair of home games: first against the New York Giants and then a Monday Nighter against the Vikings. After that the Eagles go on the road to Detroit and Chicago, then a bye week. The Eagles should be a lock to win every game except the one against the Vikings, so they should be 3-1 or 4-0 heading into the bye.
After the bye, the Eagles have road games in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, as well as home games against the Ravens and Panthers. Cleveland should be an easy win, and the Eagles ought to be able to take two of three from the Stillers, Panthers and Ravens, given that two are at home. There will be, predictably, considerable attention devoted to these three games, given that the Eagles are facing off with the team that beat them to get into the Super Bowl, the team T.O. told to shut up and die, and the team that Duce defected to. I’m honestly stunned that the NFL didn’t make any of them nationally televised: they are all Sunday at 1:00 PM … At this mid-way point in the season the Eagles should be 6-2 or so.
After that, the season gets much more difficult: the next three games are against division foes and two are on the road. The Eagles will have to travel to Dallas on Monday Night on November 15, a tough game to be sure. I’d be willing to guess that the Eagles will lose in Big D, but beat the Giants and ‘Skins to run their record to 8-3. I think thatMNF game against the Cowboys will be the most important of the season, just the same way beating the Giants last October was vital to the ’03 campaign and beating the 49ers made the Eagles season in ’02. If the birds win in big D, then the pressure will be on Dallas to win the game at the Linc. They’ll have to, or the Eagles will have a decisive edge for the division title and the playoffs.
The final stretch of the season will be brutal, with games against the Rams (on the road) and Packers, as well as the ‘Skins again and a critical home date against the Cowboys on December 19 that will almost certainly decide the division. Finally, Cincinnati. (Who figured that was a good way to end the season?) Thinking it over, I think 12-4 or 11-5 is likely.
Oh, and Eagles fans, chew on these thoughts I was having: the last four years have been some of the most successful in franchise history: 46-18 regular season record, three division titles, four playoff berths, and a 5-4 record in the playoffs (though 0-3 in the NFC title game) … we’re living through the Eagles Silver Age. The Eagles haven’t had this kind of sustained success since they won the NFL title in 1948 & 1949, which I suppose was the birds golden age. Something to think about...
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The defense, on the other hand, was Gang Green, the fearsome unit that shut-down opposing offenses and didn’t give an inch. Guys like Clyde Simmons, Reggie White, Seth Joyner, Jerome Brown were the best of the best and, week in and week out, made the Eagles a tough opponent to face off with. Since then the Eagles have changed, but the primacy of the defensive unit remains. It is the heart and soul of the Eagles. You could hardly imagine the Eagles as the Rams, with their Max Q offense burning up the league. No, the Eagles can be prodigious scorers on offense, but they will always be about their tough, gritty, blue-collar defense.
Surprisingly, the Eagles Defense was awful in ’03: tenth in the conference in overall yardage allowed, eighth in passing yards allowed, and thirteenth (13!) in rushing yardage allowed (129.4 yards a game, far worse than the Cowboys conference-leading 89.1) … The sole area that the Eagles excelled at in ‘03 was the most important, however: keeping opponents out of the end zone. The Birds allowed the third fewest points in the conference: 17.9, compared to the Cowboys 16.3. Where the Birds defense excelled at in ’03 was in turnover margin and on third down:
The Eagles had 22 giveaways v. 26 takeaways (+4). The Cowboys, despite fearsome stats, were too error-prone in ’03, going -4 in the margin. Don’t count on a Bill Parcells teams being that sloppy in ’04 again. The Birds also were the fourth stingiest team in the NFC on third downs, allowing just 35.3% of all attempts. The Eagles defense allowed just 31% of all third-down conversions in ’02, best in the conference. In short: the birds gave up the yards by the bushel, but they were more likely to force turnovers and force punts than give up points. This bend, bend, bend, but never break philosophy enabled the Eagles to squeak out some close victories. Six of the Eagles 12 wins were by 7 points or less. Until the final week of the season the Eagles failed to hold any foe to single-digits, something they did four times in 2002.
So why were the Eagles so bad in ’03? Injuries? Maybe. Brian Dawkins and Bobby Taylor missed roughly half of the season, most of the defensive line didn’t make it out of the preseason, and Carlos Emmons and Troy Vincent went down at critical junctures … Emmons injury in particular hurt: the team already had difficulty stopping the run and the Carolina Panthers took full advantage in the NFC title game. The Birds rushing defense was ridiculously incapable of stopping anyone, as evidenced by the number of 100-yard rushers in 2003: Ahman Green, Kevan Barlow, Ricky Williams, etc. The Birds surrendered 4.5 yards per carry. With a healthy Emmons on the field, there is no telling how different the title game might have been. (Or it might not have been different. It might have just been 10-3 or 7-3.)
But injuries might only be half of the story: the undeniable fact of the Eagles recent strategy has been to get smaller and quicker. The shift, after Jeremiah Trotter’s departure to D.C. in ‘02, from Levon Kirkland and Barry Gardner in the middle to Mark Simoneau was a big move for the Eagles organization: the team went smaller and quicker and sacrificed power and strength for speed and agility.
The likely reason for the shift was the Eagles experience chasing Michael Vick in the Bird 20-6 victory in the NFC Divisional game: the elusive Vick clearly scared the Eagles brain-trust (understandable, given that the previous week Vick led the Flacons to a stunning upset of the Packers) and had given them fits. The Birds played it safe all game long, playing back, clearly afraid to get burned in a blitz by Vick’s agility. The decision to go quicker was probably made in light of the divisional round game, the organization knowing they’d be going to the Georgia Dome for a (then seemingly) critical game and then fearful they’d have to face Vick in the playoffs. Until Vick got injured and the Defensive line turned into a M.A.S.H. unit, it was probably a smart move to make the Eagles linebacking corps a quicker unit. A depleted defensive line meant that the linebackers rapidly became the front line of defense on running plays. It is interesting to note that Strong Safety Michael Lewis logged 86 tackles in ’03, third-most after Linebackers Simoneau and Nate Wayne.
Will the Eagles better in ’04?
I’m not too thrilled so far. The Steelers ran right through the linebacking corps, so I wonder if Lewis and Dawkins will be making lots and lots of tackles in ’04. The D-line looks better with Kearse, but I wonder how losing N.D. Kalu, a quietly effective pass-rusher, will hurt. Honestly, I can’t forecast the Eagles being much better against the run, so birds fans had better get used to Stephen Davis and Clinton Portis and Eddie George having big games. It is inevitable. I do think that the secondary will be better than advertised due to the presence of Kearse collapsing the pocket.
How do I think the Eagles season will unfold? The Eagles open the season with a pair of home games: first against the New York Giants and then a Monday Nighter against the Vikings. After that the Eagles go on the road to Detroit and Chicago, then a bye week. The Eagles should be a lock to win every game except the one against the Vikings, so they should be 3-1 or 4-0 heading into the bye.
After the bye, the Eagles have road games in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, as well as home games against the Ravens and Panthers. Cleveland should be an easy win, and the Eagles ought to be able to take two of three from the Stillers, Panthers and Ravens, given that two are at home. There will be, predictably, considerable attention devoted to these three games, given that the Eagles are facing off with the team that beat them to get into the Super Bowl, the team T.O. told to shut up and die, and the team that Duce defected to. I’m honestly stunned that the NFL didn’t make any of them nationally televised: they are all Sunday at 1:00 PM … At this mid-way point in the season the Eagles should be 6-2 or so.
After that, the season gets much more difficult: the next three games are against division foes and two are on the road. The Eagles will have to travel to Dallas on Monday Night on November 15, a tough game to be sure. I’d be willing to guess that the Eagles will lose in Big D, but beat the Giants and ‘Skins to run their record to 8-3. I think thatMNF game against the Cowboys will be the most important of the season, just the same way beating the Giants last October was vital to the ’03 campaign and beating the 49ers made the Eagles season in ’02. If the birds win in big D, then the pressure will be on Dallas to win the game at the Linc. They’ll have to, or the Eagles will have a decisive edge for the division title and the playoffs.
The final stretch of the season will be brutal, with games against the Rams (on the road) and Packers, as well as the ‘Skins again and a critical home date against the Cowboys on December 19 that will almost certainly decide the division. Finally, Cincinnati. (Who figured that was a good way to end the season?) Thinking it over, I think 12-4 or 11-5 is likely.
Oh, and Eagles fans, chew on these thoughts I was having: the last four years have been some of the most successful in franchise history: 46-18 regular season record, three division titles, four playoff berths, and a 5-4 record in the playoffs (though 0-3 in the NFC title game) … we’re living through the Eagles Silver Age. The Eagles haven’t had this kind of sustained success since they won the NFL title in 1948 & 1949, which I suppose was the birds golden age. Something to think about...
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