Tuesday, August 10, 2004
Eagles Preview … Part 1: Donovan
A 1950’s-era NFL quarterback like the Cleveland Browns Otto Graham or Detroit’s Bobby Layne would be baffled by the current generation’s approach to the game and their responsibilities. Gone are the gun-slingers who are given the ball and told to win the game by any means necessary. In the NFL’s cautious, compartmentalized, risk-adverse culture, QB’s aren’t field generals, but mid-level officers relaying orders from the sideline. Defensive units and running games are expected to supplement the QB, if not take the responsibility of winning the game out of his hands. To me the quintessential 2000-era NFL QB is Jay Fiedler, the Dolphins signal-caller whose task has been largely to hand-off to Ricky Williams, make a few throws on third down and let the defense control the game. With fewer exceptions, like the Packers Bret Favre, QB’s are asked not to lose, rather than to win.
Which makes the 2004 season such an interesting one for Donovan McNabb. It will be his fifth as the Eagles quarterback, and hopefully the season where he will break-out and become the new Bret Favre, the new Joe Montana / Steve Young. McNabb 2004 MVP? We'll see.
He finished second in the MVP voting in ’00 when he was the Eagles entire offense. NFL voters were impressed by how McNabb was largely given the ball and asked to win it for the Eagles. No caution then, but since, the Eagles have played a more conservative scheme relying on the running game more and Donovan has been eclipsed by flashier players like the Falcons Michael Vick. An impressive season could give Donovan his first MVP award. First a look back at the past …
’03 was, in many respects, Donovan’s finest season. After the disaster of the first six games, McNabb picked it up a notch following his 9-for-23 performance in New York (thank-you, Brian Westbrook the Miracle II) and rescued the Eagles season. Check out the tale of two seasons:
Weeks 1-7: 91 / 190; 47.9%; 854 yards; 2 TD / 6 INT
Weeks 8-17: 184 / 288; 63.9%; 2,362 yards; 14 TD / 5 INT
Remarkably, despite the horror of Weeks 1-7, McNabb lodged some pretty good numbers for the entire season: his 57.5% completion percentage is in line with his career rate of 57% (note: McNabb’s career numbers are slightly impacted by his awful rookie year when he hit on just 49% of his passes). McNabb’s 6.73 yards per attempt in 2003 were actually a career high for him. His 79.6 QB rating was actually higher than his MVP-runner-up 2000 campaign (77.8).
Of course the nock against McNabb has been his accuracy: Favre and Young and Montana worked within the West Coast scheme and typically hit on 64% of their throws. McNabb has averaged about 57-58% each season, not terribly impressive given that the Eagles scheme utilizes shorter-ranged throws to running backs to move the ball. There are two important reasons to expect that to change in ’04:
1. Simply put, McNabb will have better targets to throw to: Terrell Owens is an upgrade over James Thrash. The Eagles hope that T.O. will have a ripple effect: T.O. will see plenty of schemes rolling the safety towards his direction, which will in turn isolate Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston in single coverage, and likely force teams to cover L.J. Smith with linebackers and possibly leave Buckhalter and Westbrook unaccounted for. Strategy favors the Eagles.
2. How is this for a thought: Donovan is getting better as a QB before T.O. even got here. Certainly Weeks 8-17 belie the idea of McNabb as being a QB who can’t hit 60%+ of his passes: for a sustained ten game period McNabb was a ruthlessly accurate passer (nearly 64%) who averaged 236 yards passing a game. Most impressively, McNabb went from averaging 4.49 yards a pass to 8.20 in weeks 8-17 … a dramatic improvement over his career 6.16 yards per pass. All this throwing to James Thrash and Chad Lewis, instead of T.O. and L.J. … If McNabb does in ’04 what he did in Weeks 8-17, he should throw for 3,776 yards (career high), and 22 TD passes.
Certainly I think that the opportunity for Donovan to have a career year in '04 are there. Will it happen? We'll see. Here is my prediction for Donovan in '04: 62% completion rate, 3,500+ yards (400+ yards rushing), 21-23 TD's (2-4 running as well), 13-15 INT's.
MVP? Wait and see.
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Which makes the 2004 season such an interesting one for Donovan McNabb. It will be his fifth as the Eagles quarterback, and hopefully the season where he will break-out and become the new Bret Favre, the new Joe Montana / Steve Young. McNabb 2004 MVP? We'll see.
He finished second in the MVP voting in ’00 when he was the Eagles entire offense. NFL voters were impressed by how McNabb was largely given the ball and asked to win it for the Eagles. No caution then, but since, the Eagles have played a more conservative scheme relying on the running game more and Donovan has been eclipsed by flashier players like the Falcons Michael Vick. An impressive season could give Donovan his first MVP award. First a look back at the past …
’03 was, in many respects, Donovan’s finest season. After the disaster of the first six games, McNabb picked it up a notch following his 9-for-23 performance in New York (thank-you, Brian Westbrook the Miracle II) and rescued the Eagles season. Check out the tale of two seasons:
Weeks 1-7: 91 / 190; 47.9%; 854 yards; 2 TD / 6 INT
Weeks 8-17: 184 / 288; 63.9%; 2,362 yards; 14 TD / 5 INT
Remarkably, despite the horror of Weeks 1-7, McNabb lodged some pretty good numbers for the entire season: his 57.5% completion percentage is in line with his career rate of 57% (note: McNabb’s career numbers are slightly impacted by his awful rookie year when he hit on just 49% of his passes). McNabb’s 6.73 yards per attempt in 2003 were actually a career high for him. His 79.6 QB rating was actually higher than his MVP-runner-up 2000 campaign (77.8).
Of course the nock against McNabb has been his accuracy: Favre and Young and Montana worked within the West Coast scheme and typically hit on 64% of their throws. McNabb has averaged about 57-58% each season, not terribly impressive given that the Eagles scheme utilizes shorter-ranged throws to running backs to move the ball. There are two important reasons to expect that to change in ’04:
1. Simply put, McNabb will have better targets to throw to: Terrell Owens is an upgrade over James Thrash. The Eagles hope that T.O. will have a ripple effect: T.O. will see plenty of schemes rolling the safety towards his direction, which will in turn isolate Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston in single coverage, and likely force teams to cover L.J. Smith with linebackers and possibly leave Buckhalter and Westbrook unaccounted for. Strategy favors the Eagles.
2. How is this for a thought: Donovan is getting better as a QB before T.O. even got here. Certainly Weeks 8-17 belie the idea of McNabb as being a QB who can’t hit 60%+ of his passes: for a sustained ten game period McNabb was a ruthlessly accurate passer (nearly 64%) who averaged 236 yards passing a game. Most impressively, McNabb went from averaging 4.49 yards a pass to 8.20 in weeks 8-17 … a dramatic improvement over his career 6.16 yards per pass. All this throwing to James Thrash and Chad Lewis, instead of T.O. and L.J. … If McNabb does in ’04 what he did in Weeks 8-17, he should throw for 3,776 yards (career high), and 22 TD passes.
Certainly I think that the opportunity for Donovan to have a career year in '04 are there. Will it happen? We'll see. Here is my prediction for Donovan in '04: 62% completion rate, 3,500+ yards (400+ yards rushing), 21-23 TD's (2-4 running as well), 13-15 INT's.
MVP? Wait and see.
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