THE BIRD BLOG

I’ve heard, more times than I care to hear, the cliché: “Offense gets the glory, but defense wins the game.” Certainly, the ’00 Ravens leant credence to that: I’ve never seen a more dominant team with such a lousy offensive unit. But you need a capable offensive unit to win. Even the Ravens can’t keep winning 3-0 games.

So what is the Eagles offensive outlook in ’04? A few big unknowns:

What, precisely, is going to be T.O.’s impact? Will he raise McNabb to a 60%+ passer? Will he open up the rest of the Eagles offensive unit?

What, precisely, is going to be the impact of Duce’s departure? Will his departure open up a gaping hole at the tailback slot? What about Buckhalter's injury? Can Westbrook and Levens keep things going?

What Eagle is going to have a break-out season? Reno Mahe? Freddie Mitchell? L.J. Smith?

First, the ground game: The Eagles ground game was sterling in ’03: 125.9 yards a game (fifth in the NFC), 4.8 yards a carry, and 23 touchdowns (which led the NFC) (contrast with the ’02 season: 138.8 yards a game, 4.5 yards a carry and 15 TD’s).

The three-headed monster that was the Eagles backfield of Westbrook, Buckhalter and Duce Staley was amazing in ’03. Consider their rushing stats:

Duce: 463 yards, 4.8 avg, 5 TD’s
Buckhalter: 542 yards, 4.3 avg, 8 TD’s
Westbrook: 613 yards, 5.2 avg, 7 TD’s
Total: 1,618 yards, 4.7 avg, 20 TD’s

Add in their receiving stats:

Duce: 36 catches, 382 yards, 2 TD’s
Westbrook: 37 catches, 332 yards, 4 TD’s
Buckhalter: 10 catches, 133 yards, 1 TD
Total: 83 catches, 847 yards, 7 TD’s

The threesome constituted 26% of the Eagles receiving yards, 30% of receptions, 80% of their rushing yards, and 67% of the team’s offensive touchdowns. I doubt any other team in the NFL relies so much on its running backs for offense. In many respects, they were the Eagles entire offense in ’03, a fact which has gone remarkably uncommented upon, until Buckhalter's injury focused attention on the unit.

So the question is, how much will losing Duce impact the team? Duce was a unique player: not as explosive as Westbrook, but he was more durable than Westbrook and more versatile than Buckhalter. Unlike Buckhalter, Duce has always been a terrific receiver for McNabb: he tied Thrash for the team lead in receptions in ’01 (63 catches) and caught 51 balls in ’02. Duce was always a terrific blocker, a great thing to have on a team that revolves around its star quarterback.

Buckhalter's injury, needless to say, changes everything for '04. I've expressed skepticism about Westbrook's durability and Levens ability to pick up the slack. I doubt the two will be able to accumulate 1,600 yards on the ground the way that the three-headed monster did in '03. I figure that the Levens-Westbrook duo will rush for 1,100 yards at best, and I'd anticipate seeing McNabb's rushing totals climb to 500-600 yards this season.

One thing I'm really intruiged about is the pass-catching from the backfield. The West Coast offense values watching the ball out of the backfield (Roger Craig was terrific at it with the 49ers in the late 1980's). Duce was great at it and Westbrook looked terrific last year. The three had 83 catches, which is a terrific total, but I was worried even before the season about Buckhalter's ability to contribute here, due to the fact that he only had a career 23 catches. As ’03 was Westbrook’s first full season, it is a little difficult to tell if he’ll continue to be a threat out of the backfield, but it seems reasonable to assume he'll continue to be a threat teams need to account for.

I would anticipate the loss in backfield catches will be a problem

After the backs, the rest of the offense was grim: the Birds were eleventh in passing yardage with just 188.8 yards a game (worse than Carolina or Dallas), and were sixth of sixteen teams in points scored. Simply put, the Eagles lacked any sort of threat on the outside at the wideouts. Thrash, Pinkston and Mitchell couldn't get the job done, though Pinkston dramatically improved his play late in the season and Mitchell definately improved as well. Thrash, the stone-handed reciever, was sent to D.C. to clear out room for T.O., a definate plus. While T.O.'s '03 was subpar for him: 80 catches, 1,102 yards, 9 TD's, it would be a dramatic improvement for the Eagles over the mediocre numbers the Eagles wideouts have logged since Irving Fryar left in '98.

Thrash: 49 rec, 558 yards, 1 TD
Pinkston: 36 rec, 575 yards, 2 TD’s
Mitchell: 35 rec, 498 yards, 2 TD
Lewis: 6 rec, 95 yards, 0 TD’s
McMullen: 1 rec, 2 yards, 0 TD’s
Total: 127 rec, 1,728 yards, 5 TD’s

Interestingly, I noticed that Pinkston and Mitchell both had very good yards per reception:

Pinkston: 16.0
Mitchell: 14.2

The bottom line is that T.O. will improve these numbers by himself and hopefully by bringing defensive attention, he’ll open the field for Pinkston, Mitchell and whomever else emerges. I saw that a lot in the Ravens game: Mitchell and Pinkston both looked like they were able to break away and gain separation from defenders more easily than before. They’ll see a lot of man-to-man in ’04, and I think that will translate to a lot of big plays from them.

I’m very interested to see how the tight ends do in ’04. Eagles fans expected good things from L.J. Smith in ’03, but he disappointed (the moment that stuck out in my mind was his drop on the fake field goal in the season opener. Who knows how that game would have turned out if he had caught the ball). Aside from a good game against the Falcons (6 catches, 97 yards), he didn’t do much. I’m anticipating a good season from him in ’04. (For all you fantasy football followers, I’d try and pick him up.) The West Coast system does a great job trying to work everyone into the offense and the tight end has always been a terrific threat, particularly on third down and near the goal line. Chad Lewis had a terrific season back in ’00 (69 catches, 735 yards) because McNabb often turned to him on big plays with Duce out. With Buckhalter and Duce gone, I’d look to see increased production for the tight ends. They’ll probably take a lot of those short passes that Duce used to take.

The line is always difficult to rate because there are no objective stats to use to measure a lineman’s ability. You have to look at other players and see how they perform. A running back averaging 3.5 yards a carry instead of 4.5 might be because the line can’t block anymore. Or it might be because he’s too slow in hitting the hole, and as a result his 3.5 is probably better than expected. The one objective stat we can look at is sacks allowed, and the Birds tied for 24 th most in the NFL, with 43. While someone might argue that the sacks allowed is a function of how often the Eagles pass, I’d note that the Birds were actually 25th in attempts in ’03.

So the line could probably use some improvement. Let’s hope Shawn Andrews can help there.

Quarterback? People know I’m a big fan of Donovan McNabb. He’s my favorite NFL player, and I really do think he’s the best QB the Eagles have had in a long, long time. What about his backups?

I’ve always liked Koy Detmer, despite the fact that he lacks a strong arm. (The brothers Detmer were better backups than starters.) He’s a pit bull out there, a guy who plays like he weighs three hundred pounds instead of his actual 195. I love his fire and his toughness. And he has come through big in the clutch. His performance against the 49ers in the Monday Nighter in ’02 was nothing short of spectacular. This guy is an Eagle to the core.

I do not care for Jeff Blake. While I realize that the Eagles were going to deal A.J. Feeley, I’m not thrilled to see Jeff Blake step into the breach. He’s never been an accurate passer (career 56%), and he seems to make bad decisions with frequency. The idea of Blake possibility stepping under center leaves me less-than-excited. I’d love to see Andy Hall beat Blake out for the No. 3 backup slot.

What do I forecast for the Birds offense? I figure that the Birds will score about 400 points this season. I’m guessing that the Birds will throw a lot more in ’04, so I’d forecast McNabb having 3,500 – 3,700 yards through the air. Westbrook will have a good year: 800 yards rushing, 600-700 through the air, probably 10-12 total TD's. The wideout corps will do better than their 5 TD’s in ’04, but I’d anticipate seeing T.O. only log about 70-75 catches given the attention he’ll get and McNabb’s decreased accuracy. The two players I see having big seasons are LJ (50-55 catches, probably a half-dozen or more TD’s), and Freddie (50-60 catches, a half-dozen TD’s). I wonder if Billy McMullen, a big wideout at 6-4, 210, will have a big season in ’04. He could be an outstanding compliment to T.O. He could be the Birds big sleeper in '04.