Wednesday, August 11, 2004
NFC Predictions!
NFC Predictions ...
East Div.
Philadelphia 11-5
Dallas 9-7
Washington 8-8
New York Giants 5-11
North Div.
Minnesota 12-4
Detroit 9-7
Green Bay 7-9
Chicago 7-9
South Div.
Atlanta 10-6
Carolina 10-6 (WC)
Tampa Bay 9-7
New Orleans 4-12
West Div.
Seattle 12-4
St. Louis 10-6 (WC)
Arizona 5-11
San Francisco 4-12
NFC East: Predicting the division your own team plays in is difficult because your heart and your head are oftentimes in disagreement. I admit that there are things about the Eagles that make me nervous: the cornerback situation is troubling in a season where we are going to be facing the Rams, Randy Moss, Keyshawn Johnson, Jeremy Shockey and a host of other big-time pass catching threats. And I'm less confident that the Eagles can absorb the defection of Duce Staley, whose personality and toughness were a critical X-factor in the Eagles three trips to the NFC title game. But I still think that the Eagles are the best team in the division and, at a minimum, I think they can stay ahead of the Cowboys and the rest of the pack. I'm intruiged by how McNabb is going to do with a top-flight wideout like T.O., I'm eager to see how big a season L.J. Smith has, and I think that Dhani Jones and Jevon Kearse are going to have big seasons for the Eagles. This is the best team in the division still. I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. They seemed to lay down and quit against the Panthers in the playoffs, and I don't think Drew Henson is going to be The Man in big-D for some time. Is Eddie George up to the job of being The Man II in D? I dunno. A better fit for him would have been splitting duties with Westbrook and Buckhalter, but c'est la vie. Still, this team is pretty good, possibily playoff good. They are good on defense and their offense should be better with Meshawn out there. Bill Parcells is still a master strategist, but I still wonder when Jerry Jones is going to stick his nose in Parcells business. I say this team is a little worse in terms of its record in '04 because of the tougher schedule, but otherwise this is a good team. As for the Redskins, these guys are a big if. I wasn't worried about their budget-busting spending spree last summer because it was clear that Steve Spurrier hadn't a clue how to coach in the NFL. Now that the 'Skins have rehired Joe Gibbs I'm reminded of something Robert E. Lee said after winning one of his many triumphs against Union Generals: "I'm afraid some day that they'll send me to fight someone I can't figure out." Now that Spurrier is gone, is Joe Gibbs that guy for the Eagles? I'm not sure: Gibbs was a terrific coach but the game has changed a lot since he won Super Bowl XXVI in '91. I don't think that Patrick Ramsey is going to be a top-flight QB, but he's competent, and with Clinton Portis in the backfield these guys will finally be able to run the ball effectively, which worries me. Still, I don't see these guys as anything but a third-place team.
As for the New York Giants, I hope Jesse Palmer doesn't have to see any duty this season because the poor guy is going to be mocked unmercifully for The Bachelor. And what is a pious guy like Kurt Warner doing in New York City? How easy can an observant Christian like Warner co-exist with a boozing sexaholic like Shlockey? This is a team with a lot of stories and a lot of poor fits. And mark my words, Tom Coughlin is going to get into trouble up there with his brutal disciplinarian style. I don't see them working out. This team might be ready to play in '05, but I think that '04 is a lost cause.
NFC North: I know that the Vikings are kind of a chic pick to win the division, but I can see why. They played with a lot of momentum down the stretch last year and they look like a much better team than they have been in the past. The problem is with Randy Moss. When he joined the league in 1998 I thought that he was going to obliterate the record book: his height and jumping ability were astonishing. I didn't think that anyone could cover him. Moss' problem is that he stops himself with his selfish play and ego-centric "me"-first attitude. If Moss is happy and willing to put forth more than 75% effort (100% is a forlorn hope), I can see this team going 12-4. There are things I don't like about the Vikings, like Culpepper's turnover-prone play and Moss' attitude, but I think that this team has way too much talent not to win the division. These guys could go 12-4, but they could also go 6-10. We'll see.
As for the rest of the division, I like the direction that the Detroit Lions are going in. Steve Marriucci is a good coach and I think that he'll drill these guys well. Joey Harrington will have a big year too. If you are looking for a sleeper team, look at the Lions.
I don't forecast good things being afoot for the Packers. There has to be some fall-out from January's disasterous loss to the Eagles in the playoffs. From the 4th-and-26 play to Brett Farve's duck toss to Brian Dawkins, I don't think that I have ever seen a team implode more spectacularly. These guys will have to shake that off and come to grips with the fact that their division is a lot tougher now. The Vikings are better and the Lions are better. I don't see this as a good year for the Pack or for Brett Favre. This might be the season where he starts showing a decline in his skills. As for the Bears ... if they could play defense only this would be a great team. Brian Urlacher is a terrific linebacker, probably one of the best in the NFL with Ray Lewis, and their defensive unit plays well. I hate the rest of the team. It was a small miracle that they went 12-4 in '01 with the terrible offensive unit they had. Until they dramatically upgrade at quarterback (Kordell Stewart? C'mon!) the defense will have to carry these guys, which they can only do so much.
NFC South: This is, New Orleans excepted, the toughest division in the tougher conference. I can see the Bucs, the Falcons and the Panthers all winning the division, but I like the Falcons here. The biggest wildcard is Michael Vick.
He was electrifying on a mediocre team in 2002 and in his return at the end of the 2003 season he showed real brilliance. There are few players in the NFL as talented as Vick, and his athletic ability give him the opportunity to break a game wide-open in a single play. For that reason I bet that the Falcons will take the division over two teams that are probably more talented and solid: Vick is the difference-maker. He'll have a big year in 2004. I'll be shocked if he isn't one of the top three vote-getters in the MVP voting. As for the Panthers, I like them a lot. I don't think they are a fluke at all: they are a very solid defensive-oriented team with a terrific running game. Can't beat that: got to be worth ten wins and a wildcard. I like the Buccaneers too, because Jon Gruden is such a terrific strategist and their defense is still pretty darn good. Maybe better now that Warren Sapp is gone. I don't like how lousy their offense looks. Brad Johnson is a so-so QB and the rest of their offensive unit is pretty mediocre. I think they are the weakest of the group of three contenders. As for the Saints, the less said the better. This team is truly cursed. I don't like Aaron Brooks, their management or the quality of their offensive unitor their defensive unit, for that matter. A little talent, and no heart whatsoever. Last place. Top 5 draft pick in the '05 Draft.
NFC West: I like the Seattle Seahawks. I know most people won't see it, but this might be the best team in the conference after the Iggles. Hasselback has really become a terrific starter (ignore his misplaced bravado in last January's Packers-Seahawks game), a potential MVP candidate and a real leader. They have a terrific running game, a good defense, a smart coach ... I give them the edge over St. Louis.
Speaking of which ... I like St. Louis but I don't much care for Marc Bulger. He's too inconsistent, too prone to making ill-advised throws. This is a good, explosive team being held back by its quarterback. Were it not for Bulger, I'd put the Rams ahead of Seattle. Otherwise, the Rams are fine. In fact, I'd bet that they'll make the playoffs as a wildcard, but I don't see this team beating out Seattle. Seattle is the future, the Rams are the past.
Arizona is going to be a better team with Pitt wideout Larry Fitzgerald, but I wouldn't count on it too soon. This is a team that has about fifty years of bad karma to kick. I honestly think that the San Francisco 49ers are one of the worst teams in the NFL. I remember what I huge fan I was of them back in the glory days of Montana and Young because of their philosophy towards winning. It pains me to see them decline and fall like this, but without Garcia, and without T.O., this team has very little talent after (former Pitt) running back Kevan Barlow. These guys are shooting for a Top 5 draft pick.
(Run, Marshall, run!)
Misc. predictions: Marshall Faulk will have 1,200 yards rushing ... Vick, Donovan and Hasselbach will be the top 3 MVP vote-getters, and Vick will win ... Kearse gets 15 sacks ... T.J. Duckett will have a big year ...
Okay ... playoffs ...
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East Div.
Philadelphia 11-5
Dallas 9-7
Washington 8-8
New York Giants 5-11
North Div.
Minnesota 12-4
Detroit 9-7
Green Bay 7-9
Chicago 7-9
South Div.
Atlanta 10-6
Carolina 10-6 (WC)
Tampa Bay 9-7
New Orleans 4-12
West Div.
Seattle 12-4
St. Louis 10-6 (WC)
Arizona 5-11
San Francisco 4-12
NFC East: Predicting the division your own team plays in is difficult because your heart and your head are oftentimes in disagreement. I admit that there are things about the Eagles that make me nervous: the cornerback situation is troubling in a season where we are going to be facing the Rams, Randy Moss, Keyshawn Johnson, Jeremy Shockey and a host of other big-time pass catching threats. And I'm less confident that the Eagles can absorb the defection of Duce Staley, whose personality and toughness were a critical X-factor in the Eagles three trips to the NFC title game. But I still think that the Eagles are the best team in the division and, at a minimum, I think they can stay ahead of the Cowboys and the rest of the pack. I'm intruiged by how McNabb is going to do with a top-flight wideout like T.O., I'm eager to see how big a season L.J. Smith has, and I think that Dhani Jones and Jevon Kearse are going to have big seasons for the Eagles. This is the best team in the division still. I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. They seemed to lay down and quit against the Panthers in the playoffs, and I don't think Drew Henson is going to be The Man in big-D for some time. Is Eddie George up to the job of being The Man II in D? I dunno. A better fit for him would have been splitting duties with Westbrook and Buckhalter, but c'est la vie. Still, this team is pretty good, possibily playoff good. They are good on defense and their offense should be better with Meshawn out there. Bill Parcells is still a master strategist, but I still wonder when Jerry Jones is going to stick his nose in Parcells business. I say this team is a little worse in terms of its record in '04 because of the tougher schedule, but otherwise this is a good team. As for the Redskins, these guys are a big if. I wasn't worried about their budget-busting spending spree last summer because it was clear that Steve Spurrier hadn't a clue how to coach in the NFL. Now that the 'Skins have rehired Joe Gibbs I'm reminded of something Robert E. Lee said after winning one of his many triumphs against Union Generals: "I'm afraid some day that they'll send me to fight someone I can't figure out." Now that Spurrier is gone, is Joe Gibbs that guy for the Eagles? I'm not sure: Gibbs was a terrific coach but the game has changed a lot since he won Super Bowl XXVI in '91. I don't think that Patrick Ramsey is going to be a top-flight QB, but he's competent, and with Clinton Portis in the backfield these guys will finally be able to run the ball effectively, which worries me. Still, I don't see these guys as anything but a third-place team.
As for the New York Giants, I hope Jesse Palmer doesn't have to see any duty this season because the poor guy is going to be mocked unmercifully for The Bachelor. And what is a pious guy like Kurt Warner doing in New York City? How easy can an observant Christian like Warner co-exist with a boozing sexaholic like Shlockey? This is a team with a lot of stories and a lot of poor fits. And mark my words, Tom Coughlin is going to get into trouble up there with his brutal disciplinarian style. I don't see them working out. This team might be ready to play in '05, but I think that '04 is a lost cause.
NFC North: I know that the Vikings are kind of a chic pick to win the division, but I can see why. They played with a lot of momentum down the stretch last year and they look like a much better team than they have been in the past. The problem is with Randy Moss. When he joined the league in 1998 I thought that he was going to obliterate the record book: his height and jumping ability were astonishing. I didn't think that anyone could cover him. Moss' problem is that he stops himself with his selfish play and ego-centric "me"-first attitude. If Moss is happy and willing to put forth more than 75% effort (100% is a forlorn hope), I can see this team going 12-4. There are things I don't like about the Vikings, like Culpepper's turnover-prone play and Moss' attitude, but I think that this team has way too much talent not to win the division. These guys could go 12-4, but they could also go 6-10. We'll see.
As for the rest of the division, I like the direction that the Detroit Lions are going in. Steve Marriucci is a good coach and I think that he'll drill these guys well. Joey Harrington will have a big year too. If you are looking for a sleeper team, look at the Lions.
I don't forecast good things being afoot for the Packers. There has to be some fall-out from January's disasterous loss to the Eagles in the playoffs. From the 4th-and-26 play to Brett Farve's duck toss to Brian Dawkins, I don't think that I have ever seen a team implode more spectacularly. These guys will have to shake that off and come to grips with the fact that their division is a lot tougher now. The Vikings are better and the Lions are better. I don't see this as a good year for the Pack or for Brett Favre. This might be the season where he starts showing a decline in his skills. As for the Bears ... if they could play defense only this would be a great team. Brian Urlacher is a terrific linebacker, probably one of the best in the NFL with Ray Lewis, and their defensive unit plays well. I hate the rest of the team. It was a small miracle that they went 12-4 in '01 with the terrible offensive unit they had. Until they dramatically upgrade at quarterback (Kordell Stewart? C'mon!) the defense will have to carry these guys, which they can only do so much.
NFC South: This is, New Orleans excepted, the toughest division in the tougher conference. I can see the Bucs, the Falcons and the Panthers all winning the division, but I like the Falcons here. The biggest wildcard is Michael Vick.
He was electrifying on a mediocre team in 2002 and in his return at the end of the 2003 season he showed real brilliance. There are few players in the NFL as talented as Vick, and his athletic ability give him the opportunity to break a game wide-open in a single play. For that reason I bet that the Falcons will take the division over two teams that are probably more talented and solid: Vick is the difference-maker. He'll have a big year in 2004. I'll be shocked if he isn't one of the top three vote-getters in the MVP voting. As for the Panthers, I like them a lot. I don't think they are a fluke at all: they are a very solid defensive-oriented team with a terrific running game. Can't beat that: got to be worth ten wins and a wildcard. I like the Buccaneers too, because Jon Gruden is such a terrific strategist and their defense is still pretty darn good. Maybe better now that Warren Sapp is gone. I don't like how lousy their offense looks. Brad Johnson is a so-so QB and the rest of their offensive unit is pretty mediocre. I think they are the weakest of the group of three contenders. As for the Saints, the less said the better. This team is truly cursed. I don't like Aaron Brooks, their management or the quality of their offensive unitor their defensive unit, for that matter. A little talent, and no heart whatsoever. Last place. Top 5 draft pick in the '05 Draft.
NFC West: I like the Seattle Seahawks. I know most people won't see it, but this might be the best team in the conference after the Iggles. Hasselback has really become a terrific starter (ignore his misplaced bravado in last January's Packers-Seahawks game), a potential MVP candidate and a real leader. They have a terrific running game, a good defense, a smart coach ... I give them the edge over St. Louis.
Speaking of which ... I like St. Louis but I don't much care for Marc Bulger. He's too inconsistent, too prone to making ill-advised throws. This is a good, explosive team being held back by its quarterback. Were it not for Bulger, I'd put the Rams ahead of Seattle. Otherwise, the Rams are fine. In fact, I'd bet that they'll make the playoffs as a wildcard, but I don't see this team beating out Seattle. Seattle is the future, the Rams are the past.
Arizona is going to be a better team with Pitt wideout Larry Fitzgerald, but I wouldn't count on it too soon. This is a team that has about fifty years of bad karma to kick. I honestly think that the San Francisco 49ers are one of the worst teams in the NFL. I remember what I huge fan I was of them back in the glory days of Montana and Young because of their philosophy towards winning. It pains me to see them decline and fall like this, but without Garcia, and without T.O., this team has very little talent after (former Pitt) running back Kevan Barlow. These guys are shooting for a Top 5 draft pick.
(Run, Marshall, run!)
Misc. predictions: Marshall Faulk will have 1,200 yards rushing ... Vick, Donovan and Hasselbach will be the top 3 MVP vote-getters, and Vick will win ... Kearse gets 15 sacks ... T.J. Duckett will have a big year ...
Okay ... playoffs ...
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