Saturday, January 21, 2006
When you are right 25% of the time....
... it also means you are wrong 75% of the time.
I was 1-for-4 in my divisional round predictions after going 3-for-4 in the wildcard (honest!). I'll try better this time around.
AFC: There are striking statistical similarities between the quality of the Steelers and Broncos D. The Broncos and Steelers both allowed 258 points this season (16.1 PPG), third best in the NFL after the Colts and Bears. Both teams allowed roughly the same number of rushing yards too. Denver: 1,363; Pittsburgh: 1,368. Both teams scored roughly the same number of points too. (Denver: 395, Pittsburgh: 389)
These are similar teams: they both like to run, have their QBs make high-percentage throws and stifle the opposition with their defense. I like the Broncos in this game for the sole reason that they are at home and I think they are a little deeper than the Stillers. The Steelers are a terrible 1-4 in the AFC title game under Cowher, but all of those games were at home, so this is unfamiliar territory for the Stillers and they seem to have momentum. Still, I like the Broncos. They are better coached and they are hungry. Denver 31, Pittsburgh 24. Close one though.
NFC: I don't like the Seahawks. I just don't. This team built its record on wins against fluff teams and they don't have the toughness to win. They are an offense-oriented team and they are too soft to make this work.
I love the Panthers. They won some tough games in 2005: Patriots, Falcons (twice), Vikings and Bucs (twice). They won on a tough schedule in '05 and I think that's the difference. They've been there before (winning the '03 NFC title against the Eagles and narrowly losing the Super Bowl to the Pats), they are hungry and they are well-coached. I don't think this will be much of a game. Carolina 24, Seattle 7.
Let's see if I'm right...
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I was 1-for-4 in my divisional round predictions after going 3-for-4 in the wildcard (honest!). I'll try better this time around.
AFC: There are striking statistical similarities between the quality of the Steelers and Broncos D. The Broncos and Steelers both allowed 258 points this season (16.1 PPG), third best in the NFL after the Colts and Bears. Both teams allowed roughly the same number of rushing yards too. Denver: 1,363; Pittsburgh: 1,368. Both teams scored roughly the same number of points too. (Denver: 395, Pittsburgh: 389)
These are similar teams: they both like to run, have their QBs make high-percentage throws and stifle the opposition with their defense. I like the Broncos in this game for the sole reason that they are at home and I think they are a little deeper than the Stillers. The Steelers are a terrible 1-4 in the AFC title game under Cowher, but all of those games were at home, so this is unfamiliar territory for the Stillers and they seem to have momentum. Still, I like the Broncos. They are better coached and they are hungry. Denver 31, Pittsburgh 24. Close one though.
NFC: I don't like the Seahawks. I just don't. This team built its record on wins against fluff teams and they don't have the toughness to win. They are an offense-oriented team and they are too soft to make this work.
I love the Panthers. They won some tough games in 2005: Patriots, Falcons (twice), Vikings and Bucs (twice). They won on a tough schedule in '05 and I think that's the difference. They've been there before (winning the '03 NFC title against the Eagles and narrowly losing the Super Bowl to the Pats), they are hungry and they are well-coached. I don't think this will be much of a game. Carolina 24, Seattle 7.
Let's see if I'm right...
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