THE BIRD BLOG

Most Eagles fans remember the sight of the Eagles WRs getting man-handled in the '03 NFC title game against Carolina, brutalized each time they tried to make something happen with the ball. Without a viable target to throw to, McNabb went 10-for-22, 100 yards and 3 picks.

The game made a tremendous impact on the Eagles high command. In the offseason they pursued T.O. and brought him on-board. From a team reluctant to spend or acquire high-profile free agents, the move really sent shockwaves around the NFL. The signing of Jevon Kearse, the biggest move made by any NFL team that off-season otherwise, went almost entirely unnoticed.
T.O. had a big impact on the production from the Eagles WR corps. Scope out the numbers:

2003 / 2004 / 2005
Rec.: 127 / 155 / 161
Yards: 1,728 / 2,460 / 2,250
TDs: 5 / 17 / 12
Avg.: 13.61 / 15.87 / 13.97

Simply put, the impact of T.O. on the Eagles offense was tremendous in 2004. The Eagles WRs were gaining nearly two yards a catch extra, added almost fifty yards a game, and more than tripled their number of touchdowns. While the numbers for 2005 don't seem quite as bad, I should note that T.O. was on-pace for a monster season prior to his suspension: he actually led all Eagles WRs in yards despite playing in just 7 of 16 games, had just one fewer catch than Greg Lewis (48 to 47) and scored half of the Eagles WR's TDs (6). Without T.O., the Eagles WRs drop to just 114 catches, 1,487 yards, 6 TDs and just 13.04 yards-per-catch.

None of this augers well for 2006, when the Eagles will be without T.O. again. Will the Eagles go back to the stone-handed, easily intimidated crew that gave McNabb few options to work with during his first few years?

Here are the Eagles 2006 WRs:

Reggie Brown. The Eagles second-rounder out of Georgia had a decent rookie season in 2005: 43 catches, 571 yards and 4 TDs, 13.28 avg. The Eagles brass have said that they intend for Reggie to be T.O.'s successor as the Eagles No. 1 wideout, and the future is now in 2006. Interestingly, Reggie really seemed to have stepped up after T.O. was suspended from the team: prior to T.O.'s suspension: 9 catches, 108 yards, 0 TD; post-suspension: 34 catches, 461 yards, 4 TD's. Impressive.

I'm personally not sold on the idea that Reggie can take over for T.O. as No. 1. For one thing, he's a good thirty pounds lighter than T.O. Reggie seems more like Greg Lewis or Todd Pinkston in terms of his body type. Reggie could be a decent No. 1 (and certainly his performance after T.O. suggests he'll do well, especially considering the fact that the team was playing without its big guns left), but he strikes me as a classic No. 2 wideout.

Prediction for 2006: 55 catches, 800 yards, 6-10 TDs.

Greg Lewis. I think Greg Lewis has a lot of talent and I'm intruiged to see what he'll do in 2006 with the Birds. The undrafted wideout from Illinois has performed well for the team, but he's clearly not a top-flight, No. 1 wideout. He's nearly 45 lbs lighter than T.O. and doesn't have the burning speed of Todd Pinkston. He's a terrific, No. 3, slot-reciever type. A definate upgrade over Freddie Mitchell as the No. 3 wideout.

2006 Prediction: 45 catches, 600 yards, 4-6 TDs.





Billy McMullen. I think it is time to pull the plug on the Billy McMullen project. The Eagles third round pick in the '03 draft out of Virginia has the physical tools to be a No. 1 wideout. He's 6 foot four, 215 lbs (T.O.: six foot three, 226 lbs). If he could make it work, he'd be a real monster, however nothing seems to work with Billy. He's caught a grand total of 22 passes in his career and 18 were this year. He doesn't run routes well and doesn't use his body to create opportunities. Even without T.O., I can't see the Eagles wasting roster space on a failed project.

Good luck, Billy.

2006 Prediction: 5 catches, less than 100 yards, 0 TDs.

Todd Pinkston. I'm not sure what to think about Todd. Is he a good No. 2 for this team? Or is he a third or fourth wideout, a backup unworthy of starting? Todd didn't play in '05 thanks to his injury. His numbers for 2004, where he played opposite T.O., are so-so: 36 catches, 676 yards and one TD. Pinkston's 18.8 yards per catch are impressive, but he should have had more catches and many more TD's with T.O. drawing double-teams on the other side of the field.

Bottom-line is that Todd isn't a physical, bruising wideout: he's nearly fifty lbs lighter than T.O. He's the deep threat the Eagles want out there to stretch the field. (He had six catches of 46+ yards in 2004, including an eighty-yarder against the Redskins.) He's a great No. 2 to have on the field, but he's just not a No. 1 wideout. In fact, he's less of a 1 than Reggie or Greg. With both of them ahead in the depth chart, I don't see Todd having much of a season in 2006.

2006 Prediction: 30 catches, 500 yards, 3-5 TDs.

Those are the Birds top four WRs for 2006. I personally expect to see them add another WR in the draft and maybe make a run at a free agent like the Colts Reggie Wayne in the offseason. More likely than not, I see the Eagles standing pat and going with Greg, Reggie and Todd for 2006. I see Darnerien McCants as the No. 5 with a rookie the Birds pick up in free agency as the No. 4.

So how does the Eagles WR Corps stack up? Without T.O. this crew is badly lacking. T.O. was a tremendous talent who elevated everyone's game. Donovan was musing during the season that he was disappointed by T.O.'s departure because he felt they could re-write the record books together. Certainly, T.O. and Donovan were the greatest QB-WR duo since Jaws and Carmichael. T.O. might be the greatest WR to play for the Birds ever. I think Tommy McDonald and Harold Carmichael are the only others to lay claim to that title. I think T.O. and Donovan were primed for a monster season in '05: I felt Donovan was going to throw for 4,000 yards and at least 35 TDs, and T.O. was going to hit for 110 catches, 1,500 yards and 15-18 TDs.

No disrespect Seahawks fans, but the Eagles offense was the best in the NFC. If Donovan had stayed healthy and it T.O. hadn't had his falling out with Donovan, I think we'd be watching this team play this weekend against the Steelers.

What do I think of the '06 squad. It's talented, to be sure. I think Reggie Brown is going to be around for a long, long time. I think Greg Lewis could have a breakout season. I think that this group will be better than the WR Corps from '00 - '03. But the explosiveness that the Eagles had with T.O. is gone. The Eagles will be dangerous in '06, but they won't be as deadly as they could be.

Next: The Eagles DBs.