Thursday, February 16, 2006
Schedule Analysis: Preliminary Thoughts
It is a little premature to be talking about the Eagles 2006 schedule given that the free agency season really hasn't begun in earnest, the dates for the games aren't set, and the draft hasn't happened. We have vague ideas about how good teams will be in 2006, but there is a lot to be determined. Still, it's fun to make a few preliminary notes:
NFC East: Can you believe that the Birds went 0-6 after going 16-2 over the last three seasons? It was a historic collapse and raises some troubling questions about the Eagles prospects for success in 2006. Much of the Eagles success was their ability to clobber the Cowboys, Redskins and G-men. The Eagles went 27-7 against the NFC East from 2000-2004, a .794 winning percentage, against the NFC East. They went 43-35 (.551) against the rest of the NFL during that time frame. Prior to this season the Birds had won nine of ten from the Cowboys, eight of ten from the Redskins and seven of ten from the Giants.
That level of dominance against bitter division rivals has been unprecedented and probably can't be replicated again. Therefore, the fact that all three of these teams defeated the Eagles in 2005 is problematic. Simply put, the Giants, the Redskins and the 'Boys are all better than they have been. Even the Cowboys, a team the Eagles owned since the 41-14 drubbing to open the 2000 season, were vastly better in 2005. A 3-3 record against division foes might happen in '06. I'd say that the Eagles need a 4-2 split to safely win the division and make the playoffs. I just don't see another 5-1 or 6-0 blitz through the division as a possibility.
What team worries me? Probably the Redskins.
I like their defensive toughness and their ability to run the ball (always the Eagles Achilles Heel). Their team is aggressive and tough and well-coached. What don't I like? Well, their quaterback situation is more than a little unsettled: I don't think Patrick Ramsey, MarkBrunell or even Jason Williams are the answer to their QB woes. Tampa has a great defensive unit but part of the Redskins anemic offensive performance in the wildcard game was a product of the fact that they are weak at the QB slot. But with a running game like theirs and a tough defense that makes accumulating yards perilously difficult, I think that the Redskins are the best bet to challenge the Eagles. I think the Eagles will have to struggle to win against them in 2006. I'd be happy with a 1-1 split with the 'Skins.
I don't fear the New York Giants. I'm not a fan of Eli Manning: there is a lot of hype out there about him, but I think people see him and think he's the player his brother is. He isn't. He isn't blessed by Peyton's quick release or his ability to see the depth of the game. Eli regressed in '05 and he hadn't made much progress in '04 to begin with. I'm also not a fan of Tom Coughlin: he's not a particularly innovative coach or a particularly smart one. When he led the Jaguars he molded the young club into a contender early on, but his iron grip on the team killed their development. Notice that the team did nothing after they lost the 1999 AFC title game to the Titans. The Jags fell apart after the '99 season, going 19-29 under Coughlin's watch and sliding into mediocrity. A team boasting talent like Jimmy Smith, Mark Brunell and Fred Taylor going 19-29 is stunning. Coughlin's micromanagement stiffled the team's development and killed any chance they had to build a winner in Jacksonville.
Similarly, I see Coughlin doing the same with the Giants. I don't see Jeremy Shockey or Tiki Barber or Michael Strahan graciously accepting Coughlin's dictates. His iron discipline will get old fast. They are a good bet to collapse and finish fourth in '06.
I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. My initial fear of T.O. traveling to Dallas to play with the 'Boys has receded now that the Broncos look to be the front-runners for T.O.'s services. (Fine by me, we don't play them again until 2009.) I think they've got some talent, but they look like a patchwork of veterans Bill Parcells stitched together to make a run at the Super Bowl: Terry Glenn, MeShawn Johnson and Drew Bledsoe. I think they'll be stronger than the G-men, but I see them as an 8-8, third place squad.
Conference foes: This year's rotation matches the Eagles up against the NFC South, probably the strongest division in the NFC, with additional games against the Packers and 49ers. The games against the 'Niners and Saints are virtually gimmies, despite the fact that they are both on the road.
I don't see much hope for either team in 2006: the 49ers seem almost permanently mired in rebuilding these days, and the Saints are simply hopeless. These are great matchups for the Eagles to draw.
I'm cautiously optimistic about the Packers too. The team seems in disarray, particularly if Brett Favre calls it quits and packs it in. I see this as the beginning of a period of decline for the Pack: I'm don't think Aaron Rodgers is answer at QB and I think this team needs some help. Add in that this is at home, and this looks like a "W" to me.
The rest of the conference schedule is pretty tough stuff: I think the Panthers will be one of the Eagles biggest games in 2006, particularly if it is late in the season and the two teams are competing for playoff seeding. Add in the fact that the game is in Philly and it could be a potential "must-win" for the regular season. I think the Panthers will really upgrade themselves in the offseason and add some tools to their offense. I think this could be a regular season preview of the 2006 NFC title game.
The Bucs and Falcons are lesser quantities. I like the Bucs and I think they'll be a dangerous team in 2006. I was actually impressed with Chris Simms play at the end of the season and I think Cadillac Williams will be a big-time back in this league for years to come. I'm less threatened by the Falcons, who look like a yo-yo team: up one week, down another. Michael Vick does a great job at times and others he looks frustrated and angry. I just don't think the Falcons will be able to consistently put together a winning drive with him as their QB. Each time people assume that the Falcons are ready to make a statement they falter, and badly.
In '03 Vick's injuries ended their season before it began. In '05 his unsteady play doomed the team. In their '02 and '04 playoff losses to the Eagles the Falcons were done in when Vick was held captive.
Simply put, if the Eagles restock their defensive line, I think they'll be effective in corralling Vick. Another variable is when the game will be played: if it is a December game, I bet that the Eagles will have a decisive advantage.
I think the Eagles can win the 'Niners, Saints and Packers games and win two of the three matchups against the Panthers, Bucs and Falcons (two of those three are played at home). So the Non-Division conference games should yield a 4-2 or a 5-1 record.
Non-conference foes: Drawing the AFC South brings up some interesting issues for 2006. Namely, will the Colts still be reeling from their collapse in the playoffs? Will the Jaguars build on '05 and make the playoffs? Are the Titans done rebuilding from salary cap purgatory? What's up with the Texans?
I suspect that the Titans and the Texans will be easy prey for the Birds in 2006. Both of these teams have big issues they need to work out. The Texans have been trying to build towards a winning record for all of their four seasons and don't seem to be making much progress.
I also suspect that the Colts are going to be a shadow of their former selves in 2006. To be dominated so throughly by the Steelers and then blow a golden opportunity to escape with a win? I cannot believe that a team could go 13-0 and then collapse so throughly. This team will be shattered going into next season. I just don't seeing them playing even remotely at their old level. This is a team in decline.
The big team in the AFC South is going to be the Jags. I like Byron Leftwich a lot and I think this team will upgrade their defense a little. In short, I think the Jags will go 12-4 again and win the AFC South in a walk.
We'll know more about the Eagles schedule when the NFL reveals it in the spring. The game against the Carolina Panthers means more if the Panthers are fighting for the playoffs and the game takes place in December than if it is the first game of the year. The Eagles have lost four of their last five season openers, so opening game losses I typically greet with a shrug. It's when the team loses game two that fans should freak out. I'd rather see the NFL schedule the Texans game or the Saints game as Game #2 than the Panthers.
So let's see where we are in a few weeks when we see the NFL schedule. In the here and now I see some games as easy wins (Texans, Saints, Titans, 49ers, Packers), some as tough challenges (Buccaneers, Falcons, Jaguars, Colts) and some as our usual grudge matches ('Boys, 'Skins, G-men). I like the Eagles schedule. I think this team could go 11-5 or so.
Off the subject: I was brousing through the books at Borders the other day and I came across Football Prospectus 2005. Published by the team at Baseball Prospectus, one of the my favorite web sites back when I was a Phillies blogger, the sabremetrics style of analysis was finally applied to football. I was intruiged by their findings and spent several minutes reading. Curious about what they said about the Birds I flipped to the Eagles section and caught this interesting tidbit...
Based on their '04 performance, Prospectus gave the percentages of where they expected the Birds to wind up in '05. There was an 80% chance the team would go 11-5 or better (or it was 12-4 or better, I forget exactly). There was a 1% chance the team would go 5-7 wins. 0% they would go 4-12 or worse. Absent remarkable comebacks in the Chargers and Chiefs games, this team would have been 4-12 in 2005.
That's scary stuff. I put a lot of faith in numbers and I am a big believer in sabremetrics still. The idea that the Eagles had a near-impossible collapse is scary. Will this team bounce back, or is this the prelude to a longer collapse? Food for thought.
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NFC East: Can you believe that the Birds went 0-6 after going 16-2 over the last three seasons? It was a historic collapse and raises some troubling questions about the Eagles prospects for success in 2006. Much of the Eagles success was their ability to clobber the Cowboys, Redskins and G-men. The Eagles went 27-7 against the NFC East from 2000-2004, a .794 winning percentage, against the NFC East. They went 43-35 (.551) against the rest of the NFL during that time frame. Prior to this season the Birds had won nine of ten from the Cowboys, eight of ten from the Redskins and seven of ten from the Giants.
That level of dominance against bitter division rivals has been unprecedented and probably can't be replicated again. Therefore, the fact that all three of these teams defeated the Eagles in 2005 is problematic. Simply put, the Giants, the Redskins and the 'Boys are all better than they have been. Even the Cowboys, a team the Eagles owned since the 41-14 drubbing to open the 2000 season, were vastly better in 2005. A 3-3 record against division foes might happen in '06. I'd say that the Eagles need a 4-2 split to safely win the division and make the playoffs. I just don't see another 5-1 or 6-0 blitz through the division as a possibility.
What team worries me? Probably the Redskins.
I like their defensive toughness and their ability to run the ball (always the Eagles Achilles Heel). Their team is aggressive and tough and well-coached. What don't I like? Well, their quaterback situation is more than a little unsettled: I don't think Patrick Ramsey, MarkBrunell or even Jason Williams are the answer to their QB woes. Tampa has a great defensive unit but part of the Redskins anemic offensive performance in the wildcard game was a product of the fact that they are weak at the QB slot. But with a running game like theirs and a tough defense that makes accumulating yards perilously difficult, I think that the Redskins are the best bet to challenge the Eagles. I think the Eagles will have to struggle to win against them in 2006. I'd be happy with a 1-1 split with the 'Skins.I don't fear the New York Giants. I'm not a fan of Eli Manning: there is a lot of hype out there about him, but I think people see him and think he's the player his brother is. He isn't. He isn't blessed by Peyton's quick release or his ability to see the depth of the game. Eli regressed in '05 and he hadn't made much progress in '04 to begin with. I'm also not a fan of Tom Coughlin: he's not a particularly innovative coach or a particularly smart one. When he led the Jaguars he molded the young club into a contender early on, but his iron grip on the team killed their development. Notice that the team did nothing after they lost the 1999 AFC title game to the Titans. The Jags fell apart after the '99 season, going 19-29 under Coughlin's watch and sliding into mediocrity. A team boasting talent like Jimmy Smith, Mark Brunell and Fred Taylor going 19-29 is stunning. Coughlin's micromanagement stiffled the team's development and killed any chance they had to build a winner in Jacksonville.
Similarly, I see Coughlin doing the same with the Giants. I don't see Jeremy Shockey or Tiki Barber or Michael Strahan graciously accepting Coughlin's dictates. His iron discipline will get old fast. They are a good bet to collapse and finish fourth in '06.
I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. My initial fear of T.O. traveling to Dallas to play with the 'Boys has receded now that the Broncos look to be the front-runners for T.O.'s services. (Fine by me, we don't play them again until 2009.) I think they've got some talent, but they look like a patchwork of veterans Bill Parcells stitched together to make a run at the Super Bowl: Terry Glenn, MeShawn Johnson and Drew Bledsoe. I think they'll be stronger than the G-men, but I see them as an 8-8, third place squad.
Conference foes: This year's rotation matches the Eagles up against the NFC South, probably the strongest division in the NFC, with additional games against the Packers and 49ers. The games against the 'Niners and Saints are virtually gimmies, despite the fact that they are both on the road.
I don't see much hope for either team in 2006: the 49ers seem almost permanently mired in rebuilding these days, and the Saints are simply hopeless. These are great matchups for the Eagles to draw.I'm cautiously optimistic about the Packers too. The team seems in disarray, particularly if Brett Favre calls it quits and packs it in. I see this as the beginning of a period of decline for the Pack: I'm don't think Aaron Rodgers is answer at QB and I think this team needs some help. Add in that this is at home, and this looks like a "W" to me.
The rest of the conference schedule is pretty tough stuff: I think the Panthers will be one of the Eagles biggest games in 2006, particularly if it is late in the season and the two teams are competing for playoff seeding. Add in the fact that the game is in Philly and it could be a potential "must-win" for the regular season. I think the Panthers will really upgrade themselves in the offseason and add some tools to their offense. I think this could be a regular season preview of the 2006 NFC title game.
The Bucs and Falcons are lesser quantities. I like the Bucs and I think they'll be a dangerous team in 2006. I was actually impressed with Chris Simms play at the end of the season and I think Cadillac Williams will be a big-time back in this league for years to come. I'm less threatened by the Falcons, who look like a yo-yo team: up one week, down another. Michael Vick does a great job at times and others he looks frustrated and angry. I just don't think the Falcons will be able to consistently put together a winning drive with him as their QB. Each time people assume that the Falcons are ready to make a statement they falter, and badly.
In '03 Vick's injuries ended their season before it began. In '05 his unsteady play doomed the team. In their '02 and '04 playoff losses to the Eagles the Falcons were done in when Vick was held captive.Simply put, if the Eagles restock their defensive line, I think they'll be effective in corralling Vick. Another variable is when the game will be played: if it is a December game, I bet that the Eagles will have a decisive advantage.
I think the Eagles can win the 'Niners, Saints and Packers games and win two of the three matchups against the Panthers, Bucs and Falcons (two of those three are played at home). So the Non-Division conference games should yield a 4-2 or a 5-1 record.
Non-conference foes: Drawing the AFC South brings up some interesting issues for 2006. Namely, will the Colts still be reeling from their collapse in the playoffs? Will the Jaguars build on '05 and make the playoffs? Are the Titans done rebuilding from salary cap purgatory? What's up with the Texans?
I suspect that the Titans and the Texans will be easy prey for the Birds in 2006. Both of these teams have big issues they need to work out. The Texans have been trying to build towards a winning record for all of their four seasons and don't seem to be making much progress.
I also suspect that the Colts are going to be a shadow of their former selves in 2006. To be dominated so throughly by the Steelers and then blow a golden opportunity to escape with a win? I cannot believe that a team could go 13-0 and then collapse so throughly. This team will be shattered going into next season. I just don't seeing them playing even remotely at their old level. This is a team in decline.
The big team in the AFC South is going to be the Jags. I like Byron Leftwich a lot and I think this team will upgrade their defense a little. In short, I think the Jags will go 12-4 again and win the AFC South in a walk.
We'll know more about the Eagles schedule when the NFL reveals it in the spring. The game against the Carolina Panthers means more if the Panthers are fighting for the playoffs and the game takes place in December than if it is the first game of the year. The Eagles have lost four of their last five season openers, so opening game losses I typically greet with a shrug. It's when the team loses game two that fans should freak out. I'd rather see the NFL schedule the Texans game or the Saints game as Game #2 than the Panthers.
So let's see where we are in a few weeks when we see the NFL schedule. In the here and now I see some games as easy wins (Texans, Saints, Titans, 49ers, Packers), some as tough challenges (Buccaneers, Falcons, Jaguars, Colts) and some as our usual grudge matches ('Boys, 'Skins, G-men). I like the Eagles schedule. I think this team could go 11-5 or so.
Off the subject: I was brousing through the books at Borders the other day and I came across Football Prospectus 2005. Published by the team at Baseball Prospectus, one of the my favorite web sites back when I was a Phillies blogger, the sabremetrics style of analysis was finally applied to football. I was intruiged by their findings and spent several minutes reading. Curious about what they said about the Birds I flipped to the Eagles section and caught this interesting tidbit...
Based on their '04 performance, Prospectus gave the percentages of where they expected the Birds to wind up in '05. There was an 80% chance the team would go 11-5 or better (or it was 12-4 or better, I forget exactly). There was a 1% chance the team would go 5-7 wins. 0% they would go 4-12 or worse. Absent remarkable comebacks in the Chargers and Chiefs games, this team would have been 4-12 in 2005.
That's scary stuff. I put a lot of faith in numbers and I am a big believer in sabremetrics still. The idea that the Eagles had a near-impossible collapse is scary. Will this team bounce back, or is this the prelude to a longer collapse? Food for thought.
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