Monday, November 20, 2006
The End
-Simply losing yesterday’s game to the woeful Tennessee Titans 31-13 put the Eagles in too big of a hole to climb out of. It isn’t so much their record: 5-5 isn’t bad, given that there are a bunch of 6-4 and 5-5 teams the Eagles are pursuing, but their upcoming schedule is too daunting for them to recover from: Sunday night against the Colts (not as difficult as it might seem – Tony Dungy teams don’t deal with adversity well), Monday night against the Panthers (which could be an ouch game), then three consecutive road division games against the Redskins, Cowboys and Giants, followed by what I felt could be the essential equivalent of a playoff game: the season finale at the Linc against the Falcons. It was too tough a road to drive, given that the Eagles had dropped four of their last five games. When the news was official that McNabb was done, it was official that the Eagles were done too.
-So what is the closing line on McNabb? 180 of 316 (57%), 18 TDs, 6 Ints (3-to-1 ratio), 2,647 yards (264.7 yards per game). Interestingly, despite the lack of T.O. (and having big play man Donte Stallworth in-and-out of the lineup), McNabb actually averaged slightly more yards per pass in 2006 than in 2004 (8.4 to 8.3). Extrapolated to a full season, McNabb would have thrown 31 TD passes and 10 Ints, basically what he did in 2004 (31 TDs and 8 picks), and 4,579 yards, much better than the T.O. campaign (3,875).
-So now the Eagles are left with A.J. Feeley and Jeff Garcia. Feeley, remember, filled in for McNabb and Koy Detmer after both went down in ‘02 and led the Eagles to a 5-1 finish to wrap up the season not only get the Birds into the playoffs but put them in with home-field advantage. Can A.J. perform the same magic? I doubt it, but giving Feeley the reins over Garcia would put a younger, more accurate arm in the Eagles lineup and rekindle memories of ’02. Oh, and T.O. wouldn’t explode with joy when the Cowboys beat the Eagles later this season if Feeley is under center instead of his old nemesis Garcia.
-Now it is time to look at 2007. The Eagles have a lot of problems: they can’t run effectively (28th in rushing attempts), they can’t stop the run (22nd in yards per rush allowed), they lack a consistent big play receiver … they have a lot of holes to fill and drafting low again might be nice.
-Sadly, I think you have to start and think about who will succeed McNabb under center. The ACL is a 8-12 month injury. McNabb might not be ready until Turkey Day, 2007. He might miss the entire ’07 campaign. He might not ever come back, if things go wrong.
I think the Eagles long-term strategy needs to be as follows: play A.J. Feeley this season over Garcia. At the end of the season cut Garcia loose and sign a big-time QB in transition to be the Eagles insurance for McNabb’s return. Bank on McNabb returning in 2007, but leave wiggle room for if he has any troubles and you need someone to start the first half of the season in 2007. Start thinking about drafting McNabb’s successor in the ’08 draft. Groom him to be ready in 2010.
-Enjoy this week. I intend to gorge myself on turkey Thursday. My prediction for Sunday is Colts 38, Eagles 10. Good luck A.J.
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-So what is the closing line on McNabb? 180 of 316 (57%), 18 TDs, 6 Ints (3-to-1 ratio), 2,647 yards (264.7 yards per game). Interestingly, despite the lack of T.O. (and having big play man Donte Stallworth in-and-out of the lineup), McNabb actually averaged slightly more yards per pass in 2006 than in 2004 (8.4 to 8.3). Extrapolated to a full season, McNabb would have thrown 31 TD passes and 10 Ints, basically what he did in 2004 (31 TDs and 8 picks), and 4,579 yards, much better than the T.O. campaign (3,875).
-So now the Eagles are left with A.J. Feeley and Jeff Garcia. Feeley, remember, filled in for McNabb and Koy Detmer after both went down in ‘02 and led the Eagles to a 5-1 finish to wrap up the season not only get the Birds into the playoffs but put them in with home-field advantage. Can A.J. perform the same magic? I doubt it, but giving Feeley the reins over Garcia would put a younger, more accurate arm in the Eagles lineup and rekindle memories of ’02. Oh, and T.O. wouldn’t explode with joy when the Cowboys beat the Eagles later this season if Feeley is under center instead of his old nemesis Garcia.
-Now it is time to look at 2007. The Eagles have a lot of problems: they can’t run effectively (28th in rushing attempts), they can’t stop the run (22nd in yards per rush allowed), they lack a consistent big play receiver … they have a lot of holes to fill and drafting low again might be nice.
-Sadly, I think you have to start and think about who will succeed McNabb under center. The ACL is a 8-12 month injury. McNabb might not be ready until Turkey Day, 2007. He might miss the entire ’07 campaign. He might not ever come back, if things go wrong.
I think the Eagles long-term strategy needs to be as follows: play A.J. Feeley this season over Garcia. At the end of the season cut Garcia loose and sign a big-time QB in transition to be the Eagles insurance for McNabb’s return. Bank on McNabb returning in 2007, but leave wiggle room for if he has any troubles and you need someone to start the first half of the season in 2007. Start thinking about drafting McNabb’s successor in the ’08 draft. Groom him to be ready in 2010.
-Enjoy this week. I intend to gorge myself on turkey Thursday. My prediction for Sunday is Colts 38, Eagles 10. Good luck A.J.
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