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Monday, December 11, 2006

Dawk Did It! 

The Eagles 21-19 victory over the Washington Redskins was a big, big win for the team as they continue on their unlikely march towards the playoffs. As I write this the Eagles are 7-6 and in the thick of the playoff hunt. What a difference a year makes, as last season’s Eagles team finished 6-10 and were pretty much instantly done with the playoffs after Donovan McNabb went down.

First let’s talk about yesterday’s game. Let’s credit the defense for this victory: okay, they allowed the Redskins to rush for 210 yards. The ‘Skins also converted on 7 of 16 third downs and had a total of 20 first downs in the game. Not great numbers, but the Eagles offense did little to help them. This was a victory for the D: they forced two turnovers to set up Eagles TDs, and they held the Redskins to just 19 points. Two plays in particular were huge:

-Michael Lewis’ 84-yard interception return for a touchdown in the second quarter, a play which gave the Eagles a 14-3 lead at a juncture where the Redskins were on the Eagles 23-yard line and were threatening to make it a 7-6 game or to surge ahead 10-7. The air seemed to go out of the Redskins after that. On the next drive the Redskins committed 15 yards of penalties and backed themselves into a 1st-and-25, which ended in a punt that Reno Mahe muffed. However the Redskins were too dazed and shaken to take advantage and ended up punting. On the next drive the Eagles made it a 21-3 game.

-The biggest play of the game was Brian Dawkins sack of Jason Campbell with a little over five minutes left in the game. Leading 21-16, the Eagles were trying to hold onto the lead when the Redskins took the ball on their own 15 and proceeded to drive down to the Eagles three yard line, bleeding over five minutes from the game clock. Down on the three the Eagles stiffened up and the Redskins imploded, netting zero yards on the next two plays, then committing a five yard penalty to make a 1st-and-Goal from the three into a 3rd-and-Goal on the eight. On the ensuing play Brian Dawkins knifed in and made a terrific sack of Campbell, forcing the Redskins to settle for the field goal and miss an opportunity to assume a 22-21 lead. The Eagles got the ball back and ran out the clock on some nifty plays.

Westbrook’s twelve yard scamper on 2nd-and-7 sealed the Eagles victory, as the clock wound to the two minute warning, and then the Redskins were powerless to stop it.

-A good game from Garcia, although the Eagles offensive unit vanished for big stretches of the game: 60 of Reggie Brown’s 73 yards came on one play. Donte Stallworth caught a TD, but only 31 yards on three catches. Westbrook was once more the Eagles best player: touching the ball 20 times and accumulating 126 yards of total offense.

-Okay, let’s start looking ahead … Last night’s 42-17 humiliation for the Cowboys at the hands of the New Orleans Saints makes the playoff race much, much more exciting. First off, the Cowboys looked like a shell of the team that has been dominating the NFC ever since Tony Romo took the reins in week 7 during their 36-22 loss to the New York Giants. The loss drops the ‘Boys to 8-5 and pretty much sinks any chance they had at a first round bye. With the 9-4 Saints playing the Redskins, Giants and slumping Panthers, and the 10-2 Bears playing games against the Packers, Lions, Rams and Buccaneers, I don’t see how the ‘Boys can be better than a three seed. And even there the ‘Boys have a problem: the Seahawks have three games left, two are against the 49ers and Buccaneers, two likely wins. If they can survive the Chargers, or if the ‘Boys lose another game, the Seahawks will likely take the three and push the ‘Boys to fourth.

-Okay, another issue I want to bring up is the NFC East title. The Eagles could still win it.

Impossible? No. If the Eagles defeat the Giants next week and then pull the upset on Christmas Day in Dallas, then finish the season with a win over Michael Vick and the Falcons, the Eagles will be 10-6. Let’s assume that the Cowboys will likewise win next week against the Falcons, and then will finish the year with a win over the Lions after losing on Xmas day. The Eagles and ‘Boys finish the year 10-6 each, but the Eagles own the NFC East by virtue of their sweep of the season series.

I’ll grant you that this is not a likely scenario, but it is possible. The Cowboys looked awful in yesterday’s game, nothing like the team that had gone 5-2 under Romo. The Saints looked like they could do whatever they wanted to the Saints, rolling up 28 first downs and 536 yards of offense. It was a humiliating performance and the 42-17 score isn’t even indicative of what the margin of victory really was: T.O.’s 34-yard TD in the third quarter was a fluke, the product of the ball flying thru the hands of a Saints defender and into T.O.’s surprised hands. Instead of an interception, the Cowboys had a touchdown. Fluke. Then the Saints scored a touchdown, recovered an on-side kick and jammed another TD down the ‘Boys throats. It was a humiliating game for a team that had gotten cocky.

-I am sure that Giants fans are probably busy blowing their 27-13 win over a slumping Carolina Panthers game well out of proportion as it helped them break a humiliating four-game losing streak. I say BFD: the Panthers were slumping out of the playoff race thanks to the Eagles win over them last weekend. All the Giants did was get some sloppy seconds.

-The NFC playoff picture looks like this: basically the Bears, Seahawks and Saints have their divisions locked up. The Cowboys control their own destiny, but look vulnerable. The Eagles and the Giants can catch the Cowboys for the NFC East, but they are both likely shooting for the wildcard. The wildcard is basically a three-team race between the Giants, Eagles, and Falcons. Forget the Panthers, they are finished mentally. The Vikes have a shot, but must walk a tough road: next week vs. the Jets, then games against the Packers and Rams. Sure they could win ‘em, but they are 6-7, need help and they don’t play a fellow competitor. The Falcons play the Cowboys and Eagles down the stretch, so they are more of the threat. Saturday’s Falcons-Cowboys game has very, very big playoff implications.

I think the playoff picture will shake out as:

NFC North: Chicago (#1)
NFC South: New Orleans (#2)
NFC West: Seattle (#3)
NFC East: Dallas (#4)
Wildcards: Eagles (#5), Falcons (#6)

-Over on the AFC side … The Chargers look like a lock to own home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Sure, they have some tough games (Kansas City, Seattle and Arizona) on the schedule, but they control their own destiny and have been playing great football, plus their last two games are non-conference. Did you know that the Chargers only two losses have both been by 3 points? 16-13 at the Ravens and 30-27 at the Chiefs … Despite their recent foibles, it looks like the Colts will win the AFC South … What the heck happened to the Patriots? 21-0 loss to the Dolphins? … I think the AFC division winners are basically set. Sure, the Patriots, Ravens, and Colts all could lose, but that isn’t likely at all. The AFC playoffs are basically a massive wildcard scramble. I think the Jaguars are in a good spot, so I think the race is basically a chase. Can the Bengals hold off the Broncos, Chiefs and Jets? While I like the Bengals and I respect the fact that they have won four in a row since losing five of six games, they have a tough road: Colts, Patriots and Steelers. Good luck. The Broncos have a nice chance, partly thanks to the fact that they get to play the Bengals and take their destiny into their own hands. But I really like the Jets: Minnesota, Miami and Oakland? Those are three W’s. I think the AFC playoff picture will shake out as:

AFC West: San Diego (#1)
AFC North: Baltimore (#2)
AFC East: New England (#3)
AFC South: Indy (#4)
Wildcards: Jacksonville (#5), N.Y. Jets (#6)

Sunday, Eagles and Giants. I predict a 24-17 Eagles victory in the wilds of northern New Jersey, with the Eagles harassing Eli Manning all game long. Poor Eli. He plays like he can hear all of the Giants fans asking the same question his father probably did when he was growing up: “Why can’t you be like your brother?” Peyton Manning might come up short in big moments, but Eli comes up short in big ones and in small ones. Jim Johnson toys with Eli and the Eagles win.

Anyway, enjoy. I expect to post something on my Phillies blog later today.

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