THE BIRD BLOG

I remarked to my wife before Super Bowl XLI began: “I hope we don’t have a blow-out.” My mind harkened back to the lop-sided Super Bowls of the 1980s, when the New York Giants humiliated the Denver Broncos 39-20 in Super Bowl XXI, when the Washington Redskins defeated the Broncos 42-10 in Super Bowl XXII, when the San Francisco 49ers annihilated the … well, Broncos 55-10 in Super Bowl XXIV. This game, with the Bears conservative offense, had the capacity to be as dull and predictable as those games and the 34-21 victory the Tampa Bay Bucs won over the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII.

My fears were allayed on the first play as Devin Hester ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown. No blowout. From there the game developed the way I figured that it would. The Colts overwhelming offensive firepower and newfound strength on the defensive side of the football enabled them to move the ball at will on the Bears. The Bears, offensively challenged with Rex Grossman as their QB, couldn’t do much of anything.

I think the story of this Super Bowl was really the inept offensive unit that the Bears ran all game long. Prior to the fourth quarter it managed just five first downs. Grossman simply lofted the ball into the air and allowed Colts defenders to knock it down or run under it and make the interception. The telling stat was that the Colts had the ball for 81 plays and the Bears for 48. The Bears offense left their defense on the field for Peyton Manning to slowly pick them apart. Aside from the blunder on Reggie Wayne’s 53-yard TD catch in the first quarter, you have to give credit to the Bears defensive unit for keeping the game close. Meanwhile, the Bears offense struggled to move the ball forward.

The Colts had a nice balance, smashing into the Bears 42 times on the ground for 191 yards.

Give credit to the Colts. They were definitely the better team and looked it. They had balance and were aggressive on defense. They really redeemed themselves for blowing that playoff game to the Steelers last season and for being man-handled by the Patriots all of those seasons past.

I think there were two MVPs of the Super Bowl instead of Peyton Manning. First, the award should go to Rex Grossman for completely killing the Bears offense. Second, the award ought to go to Domenic Rhodes and Joseph Addai jointly. Addai rushed 19 times for 77 yards and caught 10 passes for another 66. Rhodes caught a pass for eight yards and ran 21 times for 113 yards. They touched the ball on 51 of the Colts 81 plays and gained 264 of their 430 yards.

It was a good Super Bowl, but not quite the thrillers we had when the Patriots were in there against the Panthers and Eagles. Here’s hoping Super Bowl XLII is between the Eagles and Patriots.

Labels: Super Bowl

So Super Bowl XLI is this weekend, pitting two very unlikely teams against one another. The Chicago Bears, an offensively inept team that struggled badly at various moments in the NFL season, are playing the Indianapolis Colts, a team that seemed sunk when it fell behind the New England Patriots 21-3 in the AFC title game, but whom nevertheless rallied from the 18-point deficit and won 38-34 in dramatic fashion. I can’t say that I am impressed by either team. The Bears especially seemed to benefit strongly from home field advantage, while the Colts did seem to tough up their dead-last ranked defense and become a tougher team in the playoffs.

It reminds me a lot of last year’s Super Bowl, when two very flawed teams faced-off in Detroit. The Steelers had surged into the playoffs late with a team much weaker than the one that had gone 15-1 the previous season. The Seattle Seahawks, whose 13-3 regular season mark was largely built on the rubble on a depleted NFC, were nowhere as good as what their record suggested. I think that this game is very similar. Neither one of these teams dominated the opposition in the regular season, both of these teams had a lot of flaws. I personally expected to see the Saints and Patriots in this game.

I could see this game devolving into a blowout, the way so many Super Bowls in the 1980s did, if the Colts offense gets off to a fast start and the Bears offense struggles. I am skeptical about the big-play capacity of the Bears offense, so this is a definite possibility. Generally speaking, however, I think the Bears defense will keep the game close. I call it, Colts 27, Bears 17, with Peyton Manning, that long-suffering QB finally winning the big one.

As I watched the seconds bleed off the clock on the Eagles 27-24 loss to the New Orleans Saints on Saturday night I began to ruminate on the Eagles season. Over the last few seasons we’ve been able to unequivicably state that a season was a success or a failure. 2001? Big success. The Eagles went to the NFC title game and nearly upset the mighty St. Louis Rams. 2003? Failure. The Eagles should have beaten the Carolina Panthers in their third consecutive NFC title game loss. 2004? Success. The Eagles went a franchise best 13-3 and went to the Super Bowl. 2005? Failure. A Super Bowl-quality team went 6-10 and was divided between McNabb and T.O.

What about 2006, I wondered. Success or failure? If you are a glass-half empty sort of guy you can hark back to McNabb’s belief that the Eagles could go 13-3 and make Super Bowl XLI and say that the season was a failure because they were three wins worse in the regular season and didn't make the Super Bowl. If you are glass-half full, you’d look at the fact that the Eagles made the playoffs at all after McNabb and Jevon Kearse were lost for the season and actually came within an ace of making their fifth NFC title game in six years. I’m sort of torn.

Yes, the Eagles struggled a lot in 2006. McNabb was alternatively brilliant, slinging the ball down field, seemingly making the Eagles look like the 1999 Rams and their Max-Q offense, and alternatively terrible, playing the Eagles into a hole in the game against the Buccaneers and blowing a huge lead to the Giants. If McNabb hadn’t gone down it is an open question as to whether or not the Eagles would have gone 5-1 and made the playoffs.

On the other hand, McNabb might have thrown for near-40 TD passes and been a factor in the MVP race. We’ll never know.

Generally, I think the year was a triumph. The Eagles lost Jevon Kearse and still played great defense. They lost McNabb and seemingly re-discovered their running game. Yes, they lost to the Saints, but they won the NFC East after everyone gave them up for dead and won three consecutive road games against the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys, something NOBODY said they could do at the outset of the season.

The Saints game wasn’t perfect at all. The offense, not the defense, lost the game with its slow start in the first half, then by botching opportunities to score … specifically I am thinking of the Eagles Second-and-One inside the five yard line that ended up being a field goal to make the game 27-24 instead of a touchdown to put the Eagles ahead 28-27, and the Eagles failure to score after recovering Reggie Bush’s late fumble. Should Andy Reid have gone for it on Fourth-and-fifteen? I say yes, but I understand the argument the other way: the Eagles did convert the play before and what were the chances of capturing lightning in the bottle again? Put it in the hands of your defense and play for the field goal later. I would have gone for it, but that’s a 50%-50% call.

I was deeply impressed by the Saints. This is not the old Aints of the past. This was an aggressive, well-coached team that has a lot of weapons. I think the Eagles D did a great, great job of keeping the Saints to 27 points. That could have been much, much worse. They were aggressive, forced Drew Brees to make bad throws and did a good job keeping the Saints bottled up. Sure the Saints ran the ball well, but the Eagles will always surrender rushing yards as opposed to big plays.

So now the Eagles move on. Free agency time, draft time. Planning for 2007. I personally think the Birds are well-positioned for 2007. McNabb will be back and hungrier than ever. I suspect that the Eagles will keep Jeff Garcia as their backup, which means if McNabb isn’t ready they’ll have a great QB waiting in the wings and they will have a great leader in the locker room. The offensive line is great and the Eagles skill players are second-to-none. They just need a little depth at running back and tight end. On the defensive side of the ball the Eagles will get Kearse back and seem to be improving in their linebacking corps. Some depth there in the draft and the Eagles will be fine. Kicker? David Akers. The Birds are loaded. They need some depth in the draft and they’ll be fine.

What will the NFC East look like? The Redskins are Jason Campbell’s team now and I am very skeptical about his abilities. Joe Gibbs seems tired and worn out. The Redskins will be lucky to get to 8-8. The Cowboys? Tony Romo looked very beatable late in the season and we’ll have to see how his botched hold will affect his mental state in 2007. That, and Bill Parcells will have to deal with the T.O. problem again. 2007 won’t be a good season for the ‘Boys and T.O. will drive Parcells to early retirement. The Giants? The less said the better: Tom Coughlin is a terrible coach and Eli Manning is a bust at QB. This team has 5-11 written all over it. The Eagles get a nice schedule too, with games against the offensively-challenged Bears, the inept Lions, the rebuilding Packers and the wildcard Vikings on the horizon. The Seahawks? Shell of the team they were in 2005. Add in games against the AFC East (Miami? Buffalo? East W’s) and the Birds are in good for ’07. This team could go 13-3 in '07.

As for the NFL playoffs, let me just say that I am stunned that the Patriots beat the Chargers Sunday. With the Eagles gone, I am turning my support to the Patriots. Brady and Belichick are brilliant competitors and have an opportunity to equal the mark the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers made when they won four Super Bowls in six years. The Patriots could do so with a win in Super Bowl XLI, which would mark the Patriots as perhaps the greatest dynasty in NFL history, better than the ‘60s Packers, better than the ‘70s Steelers, better than the ‘80s-‘90s 49ers, greater than the ‘90s Cowboys. To win four titles in the free agency period with vastly different teams in a short time period … I defy anyone to name a greater team.

Predictions:

-NFC: The Saints win a blow-out, 34-10 in Chicago over the Bears. The Saints are too explosive and have too many weapons.

-AFC: The Patriots over the Colts 31-28 in Indy. The Patriots mastery of Peyton Manning continues, but the decisive factor will be the Patriots offense ability to run on the Colts defense, the first team to do that this off-season.

See everyone next Monday!

It was a grudge match, it was a dog fight, it was everything you’d expect an NFC East football game would be. In the end, the Philadelphia Eagles were tougher, grittier, nastier than their enemy. That is the reason why the Eagles defeated the New York Giants 23-20 yesterday in a game that cause me to shout: “Come on!!!!” about thirty times at the television. A few thoughts:

The MVP of the Eagles win was Brian Westbrook. Twenty carries, 141 yards and a TD. Westbrook didn’t catch many passes (just two catches for twelve yards) and his big punt return for a TD was knocked out by a penalty, but he was electric on the ground and had three key plays in the game:

-His 49-yard TD run in the second half on 2nd-and-1 to give the Eagles their first score of the game.
-Westbrook’s eleven yard run on the first play of the Eagles final possession, which moved the Eagles to mid-field and gave them plenty of time to milk the clock and still be confident of moving the ball into position.
-Finally, Westbrook’s thirteen yard run to the Giants nineteen yard line to set up the game-winner. It was a great run by Westbrook, who turned up the field and hit the afterburners once he saw a gap.

Without those runs, the Eagles would not have emerged victorious.

Garcia and the Eagles offense played a pretty so-so game, although to be fair, much of their poor play was a product of horrible field position in the first quarter, which was not entirely their fault. A well-placed kick by the Giants that Reno Mahe realized he couldn’t take a chance on resulted in horrible field position for the Eagles. The Birds started four of their next drives in their own Red Zone. Hard to get much of anything going when you start on your own 9, 20, 2 and 16 yard lines.

After Westbrook the Eagles stand-out performer was Reggie Brown, who played spectacularly well, catching 7 passes for 73 yards. Brown’s catches were tough ones that extended Eagles drives. Great, great performance for Reggie.

The Eagles had more yards rushing (185) than passing (138 net) for probably the first time all season. Probably years. I loved the fact that the Eagles run-pass ratio was 1:1. As long as Andy leaves the play-calling up to Morty, the Eagles are set.

The Eagles D played well and kept the Giants offense shackled for much of the game in the middle. What saved the game for the Eagles was when the defense stood up during the first quarter and held the Giants to one first down in three possessions when the Giants got the ball at the Eagles 49, their own 48, then the Eagles 46 again. To get the ball on your foe’s side of the field and botch three opportunities to work with a short field is inexcusable.

Generally speaking I wasn’t impressed by the Giants. For all of their terrific field position and momentum at the outset of the game, they played like crap until the end of the fourth quarter. Eli’s pick was a disaster, a pass he was basically trying to force into double-coverage. Tiki Barber and Plaxico Burress burned the Eagles for big plays, especially at the start and end, but in the middle the Giants looked like their usual selves, tepidly trying to figure out if they should run or pass, not sure. Add in the bone-headed penalties, and this Giants team was a mess. I personally hope that Tom Coughlin comes back next season as the Giants coach because this guy made a mess of a talented team.

On to the rest of the playoffs...

-The Patriots played pretty commanding football against the Jets. In fact they played like the Patriots of old, grinding out a close lead and then capitalizing on late mistakes to blow the game wide-open. I thought that the Chargers would easily beat the Pats, but now I am not so sure.

Meanwhile, the Colts didn’t play as badly as the Chiefs and hold on for a 23-8 win over KC in a pretty uninspired game that – frankly – did not hold my attention on Saturday.

The Cowboys laughable botched field goal in Seattle did and left my jumping for joy. Anyone notice that the 21-20 final was the same score as the 1996 Monday Night Football game were the Eagles to the Cowboys lost on a botched hold on a field goal? Weird.

-Predictions. Well, the Ravens and Colts looks like an easy call. Unless Peyton Manning and the Colts can reverse years of lousy playoff performances, I suspect that Manning will struggle against the Ravens nasty, aggressive defense. The Ravens will score a defensive touchdown or two. Call it Ravens 27, Colts 10.

The Patriots and Chargers will be an interesting game. Can Bill Belichick devise a way to keep DaLanian Tomlinson in check? If anyone can, he can. I am going to go with the Chargers on the basis that they are a young team, an aggressive team defensively, and they are playing at home. But I think it is going to be a razor-thin game: Chargers 28, Patriots 27.

The Bears and the Seahawks. Sure Rex Grossman has played bad football in the second half, but Seattle isn’t much better. They look like a shell of the team that won the NFC title last year. Well, someone has to win it. It might as well be a … 13-10 Bears victory. Yawn.

Eagles and Saints? Well, it will be a tight game to be sure. I think the Eagles will be enough motivation to want to avenge the regular season’s 27-24 loss and pull out a 31-27 win at the end next Saturday night. On to the fifth NFC title game in six years for the Birds.

Well, I just got back from New Year’s break and I haven’t a whole lot of thoughts at the moment on the Phillies ... or the Eagles right now. Today’s post will just be a stream-of-consciousness thing …

-I went to Sunday’s Eagles – Falcons game at the Linc. Despite the Eagles first-teamers being removed once the Lions clinched the NFC East for the Birds with their miraculous 39-31 win over the Cowboys, I had a terrific time (first ever time at the Linc) and I got to see a great game as the Eagles won 24-17. The Eagles defense was fast and aggressive and the offense really moved the ball well through the air. Hank Baskett’s 89-yard TD pass was a thing of beauty.

As this was my first game at the Linc I want to note what a major, major improvement it was over the Vet: despite sitting high in Section 243, near the top of the stadium, I still had a great view of the action and got to see every little detail. I love that place.

-USC’s 32-18 victory over Michigan in the Rose Bowl hopefully shut the BCS rematch proponents up: Michigan had their chance and they blew it. Yet another Big Ten team stumbled and fell. Sad.

-I was overjoyed by Boise State’s 43-42 win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. For the second time in three years (see, Utah, circa 2004), a small-time school blitzed through their season undefeated, played a good time in a big bowl, and won’t get the National Title. Disgrace. Boise State played a great game and humiliated everyone who said that Oklahoma was a lock to win. If Florida beats Ohio State, will someone explain why Boise State won’t be the National Champ?

-Speaking of disgrace: Notre Dame plays LSU in the Sugar Bowl tonight. Prediction: LSU 38-14. Notre Dame is a joke, their record this season built on smoke and mirrors. They lost the only games of significance on their schedule (USC and Michigan), and they beat a slew of lousy teams on their way there.

-Anyone else notice that the Big East is 3-0 in the Bowls?

-Some good games coming up this weekend. I like Kansas City over Indy 31-24. Sure K.C. has struggled a little this season, but the Colts are horrible against the run and the Chiefs are going to pound them with Larry Johnson all game long. See ya next year, Peyton Manning. Sunday night I see the Cowboys knocking off the Seahawks 21-20. New England over the New York Jets 17-10 in what will probably be the weekend’s best game. Finally, I like the Eagles to beat the Giants 27-13 on Sunday to earn the right to go to New Orleans and play the Saints.

-A few thoughts on the NFL: That final weekend to the season was a stunner. I cannot believe that the Broncos, Bengals and the Jaguars all missed out on the playoffs. I hope there is some hell to pay in each town because none of those three teams should have missed out. Over in Atlanta, Michael Vick continues to frustrate those who said things about him being the “Michael Jordan of football”. He’s a flashy player who screws up. A lot. He’s not consistent.

-Well, with Barry Zito finding a home in SF, the 2006-2007 free agency period comes to an end. I think it turned out well for the Phillies: they added two new starters to the rotation, got a third baseman, and avoided stupid mistakes like playing Carlos Lee $100 million bucks. Small miracles.

Back to regularly scheduled programming tomorrow.

Just a quick word on the Eagles game today ….

What a commanding performance by the Eagles. It was one of those games where you’d have to say that the Eagles simply took it straight to the Cowboys and hammered them into submission. The Gauntlet, the impenetrable path of three consecutive games road against NFC East foes that people forecast in the preseason would be the Eagles sternest test and their likely undoing, turned into the best part of the season for the Birds. At 9-6 they are flying high, with a playoff berth in hand, and a division title in their mind’s eye.

The Eagles rushed for 204 yards on the ground, the most a Cowboys foe has accomplished in Big D since 2000. It was Brian Westbrook’s sixth 100+ yard rushing game of the season and got him to 1,214 yards on the ground, along with 76 catches for 670 yards through the air. How is he not going to the Pro Bowl?

The Eagles defense was once more the star of the game for the Eagles: flying around, hitting Tony Romo, they took T.O. out of the game and handcuffed the Cowboys offense, which managed a mere 201 yards of offense and turned the ball over three times. T.O. and Terry Glenn managed a total of three catches for 40 yards. That’s it.

Then there is the big goal-line stand where the Eagles turned the Cowboys and Marion Barber away three times from the one-yard line. (Barber: three rushes, three yards lost.) That was where the game was decided. Once the Cowboys blew their opportunity the Eagles never looked back.

-Since 2000, when the Eagles current era began with the Eagles 41-13 win over the Cowboys on the opening day of the season, the Eagles are 11-3* against the Cowboys. This major rivalry has become decidedly one-sided of late.

* And two of those wins were in 2005.

-This game was the best Christmas present that Eagles fans could have been given, but then T.O. made it a Happy Hanukkah by his post-game “I need to get the ball more” speech. It was inevitable it was going to happen and I think this game sealed T.O.’s fate in Big D: he’ll be gone because Bill Parcells doesn’t have time to deal with babies making millions of bucks. Say goodbye to T.O., Cowboys fans: he’s headed outta town.

Now the Eagles are assured of a few things:

-They are in the playoffs.
-They will be no worse than the fifth seed in the playoffs.
-They can win the division and be the third seed if they beat the reeling Falcons or if the Cowboys lose to the Lions.

The Eagles get the #3 seed along with the division, which would put them on a collision course with the Giants for the playoffs, a team that has “one-and-done” written all over it. I assume that the Giants will pull it together and beat the Redskins Saturday night to clinch the playoff berth. If they don’t, then the smart money is on the Packers, a team that the Eagles have owned of late, to make it. I’d put money on the Giants, losers of six of their last seven games, to be the Eagles round one foe. Be nice to avenge that week two loss, ‘eh?

More next week once we know where people are playing in January. Every have a Happy New Year’s! I’ll post tomorrow and Thursday at A Citizens Blog.

That is how many yards of rushing the Eagles had in yesterday’s 36-22 win over the hated New York Giants, probably the most satisfying win the Eagles have had since they beat the Dallas Cowboys back in October. With the victory the Eagles go to 8-6 and assume a commanding position in the NFC playoff picture.

First thoughts on the game:

Garcia is now 3-1 as the Eagles starter and I feel guilty for calling for A.J. Feeley to assume the reins. Andy Reid made the right call by putting Garcia in there. He’s done a nice job as the Eagles QB and seems nothing like the guy who sucked things up in Detroit and Cleveland the last two years: quiet, timid and unhappy. Jeff Garcia circa 2006 seems like a firey competitor, a guy who burns to win. You can bet he’ll be fired up on Xmas Day to face off with his old nemesis, T.O. Aside from that foolish spike and the subsequent pick, Garcia played a very, very nice game yesterday, riddling the Giants defense with quick passes, hitting on 19-of-28 for 237 yards and a TD.

On the ground the Eagles did a really nice job. Maybe they didn’t look like Nebraska, circa 1997, but they ran the ball effectively and controlled the clock nicely. The Eagles ran for 161 yards on 30 carries, generally exploiting the inexperienced Giants D-line all game long. Here is how the Eagles backs did:

Rushes / Yards / TDs
Westbrook: 19 / 97 / 2
Buckhalter: 8 / 48 / 1
Garcia: 3 / 16 / 0

In particular I thought the Eagles first TD was pure brilliance: setting Buckhalter and Westbrook in the backfield, faking a toss to the right to Westbrook, then handing the ball to Buckhalter on what amounted to a dive up the middle. The Giants defense was totally fooled and Buckhalter scored on an easy play.

On the defensive side of the ball the Eagles forced four turnovers, the biggest one being Sheldon Brown’s blitz which popped the ball into the air and was returned by Trent Cole for a TD to seal the game. Eli Manning looked dazed and confused, battered and bruised. After the initial drive of the game, where the Giants scored a Tiki Barber TD, the Giants offense looked flat and out of it.

In the matchup of coaching wits between Andy Reid and Tom Coughlin, it was no contest: Coughlin, the harsh and unimaginative disciplinarian, was utterly unable to match wits with the cunning Reid and the rest of the Eagles imaginative staff. Watching the Giants reminded me of Steve Spurrier’s Redskins: for all of the hype about Spurrier’s genius, he was a very unimaginative coach who stuck with a few basic ideas and never innovated or thought outside of the box. (e.g., Spurrier never spent time discussing blocking schemes with his coaches, instead telling them during their team meeting to “Block ‘em up. Block ‘em up good!”). Coughlin looked lost and confused about how to deal with the Eagles blitzes. Andy Reid and the Eagles were 4-0 against the ‘ol ball coach, so I hope Coughlin stays around as the G-men’s coach.

Alright, let’s look at the playoff picture. Let’s start low and talk about the wildcard. The following teams cannot beat the Eagles for a playoff slot:

-St. Louis: even if the Rams tie the Eagles at 8-8, the Eagles have a better conference record.
-San Francisco: even if the 49ers tie the Eagles at 8-8, the Eagles beat them in the regular season and thus own the tiebreaker.
-Carolina: ditto above.
-Green Bay: ditto again.

Which leaves the Eagles with three adversaries for the wildcard: the Vikings, the Falcons and the Giants.

-The 7-7 Falcons will play the Eagles in the season finale, so we’ll see if that becomes an issue, although the Falcons can really hurt themselves with a loss to the Carolina Panthers next week.

-The 7-7 Giants still have a shot, although if the Eagles beat the Cowboys on Christmas Day, the Eagles own a tiebreaker on the G-men: even if the teams tie at 9-7, the Eagles would own a 5-1 record vs. the NFC East and the G-men would be 4-2.

-The 6-8 Vikings have an outside shot at the Eagles if they win both of their games and the Eagles lose both of theirs.

Chances are that the Eagles will oust at least two of those teams and make one of the two wildcards.

The other issue is the NFC East, which is still up for grabs. If the Eagles win out, they’d take the NFC East thanks to sweeping the season series against the Cowboys. I guess we’ll see ….

The Eagles 21-19 victory over the Washington Redskins was a big, big win for the team as they continue on their unlikely march towards the playoffs. As I write this the Eagles are 7-6 and in the thick of the playoff hunt. What a difference a year makes, as last season’s Eagles team finished 6-10 and were pretty much instantly done with the playoffs after Donovan McNabb went down.

First let’s talk about yesterday’s game. Let’s credit the defense for this victory: okay, they allowed the Redskins to rush for 210 yards. The ‘Skins also converted on 7 of 16 third downs and had a total of 20 first downs in the game. Not great numbers, but the Eagles offense did little to help them. This was a victory for the D: they forced two turnovers to set up Eagles TDs, and they held the Redskins to just 19 points. Two plays in particular were huge:

-Michael Lewis’ 84-yard interception return for a touchdown in the second quarter, a play which gave the Eagles a 14-3 lead at a juncture where the Redskins were on the Eagles 23-yard line and were threatening to make it a 7-6 game or to surge ahead 10-7. The air seemed to go out of the Redskins after that. On the next drive the Redskins committed 15 yards of penalties and backed themselves into a 1st-and-25, which ended in a punt that Reno Mahe muffed. However the Redskins were too dazed and shaken to take advantage and ended up punting. On the next drive the Eagles made it a 21-3 game.

-The biggest play of the game was Brian Dawkins sack of Jason Campbell with a little over five minutes left in the game. Leading 21-16, the Eagles were trying to hold onto the lead when the Redskins took the ball on their own 15 and proceeded to drive down to the Eagles three yard line, bleeding over five minutes from the game clock. Down on the three the Eagles stiffened up and the Redskins imploded, netting zero yards on the next two plays, then committing a five yard penalty to make a 1st-and-Goal from the three into a 3rd-and-Goal on the eight. On the ensuing play Brian Dawkins knifed in and made a terrific sack of Campbell, forcing the Redskins to settle for the field goal and miss an opportunity to assume a 22-21 lead. The Eagles got the ball back and ran out the clock on some nifty plays.

Westbrook’s twelve yard scamper on 2nd-and-7 sealed the Eagles victory, as the clock wound to the two minute warning, and then the Redskins were powerless to stop it.

-A good game from Garcia, although the Eagles offensive unit vanished for big stretches of the game: 60 of Reggie Brown’s 73 yards came on one play. Donte Stallworth caught a TD, but only 31 yards on three catches. Westbrook was once more the Eagles best player: touching the ball 20 times and accumulating 126 yards of total offense.

-Okay, let’s start looking ahead … Last night’s 42-17 humiliation for the Cowboys at the hands of the New Orleans Saints makes the playoff race much, much more exciting. First off, the Cowboys looked like a shell of the team that has been dominating the NFC ever since Tony Romo took the reins in week 7 during their 36-22 loss to the New York Giants. The loss drops the ‘Boys to 8-5 and pretty much sinks any chance they had at a first round bye. With the 9-4 Saints playing the Redskins, Giants and slumping Panthers, and the 10-2 Bears playing games against the Packers, Lions, Rams and Buccaneers, I don’t see how the ‘Boys can be better than a three seed. And even there the ‘Boys have a problem: the Seahawks have three games left, two are against the 49ers and Buccaneers, two likely wins. If they can survive the Chargers, or if the ‘Boys lose another game, the Seahawks will likely take the three and push the ‘Boys to fourth.

-Okay, another issue I want to bring up is the NFC East title. The Eagles could still win it.

Impossible? No. If the Eagles defeat the Giants next week and then pull the upset on Christmas Day in Dallas, then finish the season with a win over Michael Vick and the Falcons, the Eagles will be 10-6. Let’s assume that the Cowboys will likewise win next week against the Falcons, and then will finish the year with a win over the Lions after losing on Xmas day. The Eagles and ‘Boys finish the year 10-6 each, but the Eagles own the NFC East by virtue of their sweep of the season series.

I’ll grant you that this is not a likely scenario, but it is possible. The Cowboys looked awful in yesterday’s game, nothing like the team that had gone 5-2 under Romo. The Saints looked like they could do whatever they wanted to the Saints, rolling up 28 first downs and 536 yards of offense. It was a humiliating performance and the 42-17 score isn’t even indicative of what the margin of victory really was: T.O.’s 34-yard TD in the third quarter was a fluke, the product of the ball flying thru the hands of a Saints defender and into T.O.’s surprised hands. Instead of an interception, the Cowboys had a touchdown. Fluke. Then the Saints scored a touchdown, recovered an on-side kick and jammed another TD down the ‘Boys throats. It was a humiliating game for a team that had gotten cocky.

-I am sure that Giants fans are probably busy blowing their 27-13 win over a slumping Carolina Panthers game well out of proportion as it helped them break a humiliating four-game losing streak. I say BFD: the Panthers were slumping out of the playoff race thanks to the Eagles win over them last weekend. All the Giants did was get some sloppy seconds.

-The NFC playoff picture looks like this: basically the Bears, Seahawks and Saints have their divisions locked up. The Cowboys control their own destiny, but look vulnerable. The Eagles and the Giants can catch the Cowboys for the NFC East, but they are both likely shooting for the wildcard. The wildcard is basically a three-team race between the Giants, Eagles, and Falcons. Forget the Panthers, they are finished mentally. The Vikes have a shot, but must walk a tough road: next week vs. the Jets, then games against the Packers and Rams. Sure they could win ‘em, but they are 6-7, need help and they don’t play a fellow competitor. The Falcons play the Cowboys and Eagles down the stretch, so they are more of the threat. Saturday’s Falcons-Cowboys game has very, very big playoff implications.

I think the playoff picture will shake out as:

NFC North: Chicago (#1)
NFC South: New Orleans (#2)
NFC West: Seattle (#3)
NFC East: Dallas (#4)
Wildcards: Eagles (#5), Falcons (#6)

-Over on the AFC side … The Chargers look like a lock to own home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Sure, they have some tough games (Kansas City, Seattle and Arizona) on the schedule, but they control their own destiny and have been playing great football, plus their last two games are non-conference. Did you know that the Chargers only two losses have both been by 3 points? 16-13 at the Ravens and 30-27 at the Chiefs … Despite their recent foibles, it looks like the Colts will win the AFC South … What the heck happened to the Patriots? 21-0 loss to the Dolphins? … I think the AFC division winners are basically set. Sure, the Patriots, Ravens, and Colts all could lose, but that isn’t likely at all. The AFC playoffs are basically a massive wildcard scramble. I think the Jaguars are in a good spot, so I think the race is basically a chase. Can the Bengals hold off the Broncos, Chiefs and Jets? While I like the Bengals and I respect the fact that they have won four in a row since losing five of six games, they have a tough road: Colts, Patriots and Steelers. Good luck. The Broncos have a nice chance, partly thanks to the fact that they get to play the Bengals and take their destiny into their own hands. But I really like the Jets: Minnesota, Miami and Oakland? Those are three W’s. I think the AFC playoff picture will shake out as:

AFC West: San Diego (#1)
AFC North: Baltimore (#2)
AFC East: New England (#3)
AFC South: Indy (#4)
Wildcards: Jacksonville (#5), N.Y. Jets (#6)

Sunday, Eagles and Giants. I predict a 24-17 Eagles victory in the wilds of northern New Jersey, with the Eagles harassing Eli Manning all game long. Poor Eli. He plays like he can hear all of the Giants fans asking the same question his father probably did when he was growing up: “Why can’t you be like your brother?” Peyton Manning might come up short in big moments, but Eli comes up short in big ones and in small ones. Jim Johnson toys with Eli and the Eagles win.

Anyway, enjoy. I expect to post something on my Phillies blog later today.

As I watched last night’s Eagles-Panthers game I allowed a thought to creep into my head: “The Eagles might just win this game.”

Shocking, I know. I see that just 16% of Yahoo! Sports Pick ‘em users picked the Eagles to win this game. I don’t blame them: if I were betting I’d have money on Carolina. No McNabb, having lost five of their last six games, facing a team desperately trying to get back into the playoff mix … No way the Eagles could win, I thought.

Final score, Eagles 27-24. Suddenly the Eagles season doesn’t look so grim?

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. First, let’s talk about the game:

How did the Eagles win? By winning the turnover battle: allowing no turnovers while forcing two big ones late in the game for the Panthers. The Eagles also did a nice job containing Carolina’s ground game and forcing the inconsistent Jake Delhomme to take to the air and try to win it. Delhomme won the game for the Birds on his picks.

-Yes, MeShawn Johnson and Steve Smith played nice games, catching a total of eight passes for 119 yards and two TDs, but they were out-played by the Eagles duo of Reggie Brown and Donte Stallworth, who caught nine passes for 190 yards and two TDs. For the first time since they played the Redskins, Stallworth had a big game, and Brown has been nearly invisible for weeks.

-Nice to see the Eagles get some yardage out of the run game, rushing for 98 yards.

-Garcia played a pretty amazing game. I had called for A.J. Feeley to jump into the fray over Garcia, but I was wrong. Garcia has generally played well thus far this season in McNabb’s relief. Yesterday he threw for 312 yards, 3 TDs and no picks. So far this season he’s thrown for 641 yards and six TDs without a pick.

-Give enormous credit to the Eagles defense, which has been much maligned of late. The Eagles D forced the Panthers to go three-and-out six times, and on three of those drives the Carolina offense lost yards. Even though they did not sack Delhomme, they got pressure and forced him to make mistakes. Well done.

-So where does this leave the Eagles in terms of the playoff hunt? Well, despite how badly the Eagles have been playing, despite how much they have struggled … if the 2006 regular season were to end today, the Eagles would back in as the #6 seed. And the Eagles would probably play the Cowboys.

The fact that the Eagles are still in the playoff race is extraordinary. I figured that the Eagles would limp to a 6-10 finish like they did in 2005, and wouldn’t matter at all in the playoff picture. Happily, they are very much in the mix right now, one of four 6-6 teams dueling for a wildcard slot. The best thing about that is that they now own a tie-breaker on the Panthers thanks to last night. They play the Giants again and could gain that edge on them by beating them in two weeks. Finally, the Falcons play the Eagles on New Year’s Eve and that could decide who gets to go to the playoffs.

The Eagles actually stand a decent chance of making the playoffs, but the key is going to be winning their next game against the Washington Redskins. It will not be easy. It will be the first of three road games, against a foe desperately trying to save face with the end of the season fast-approaching. (Oh, and a victory over the Redskins would assure that the Eagles don’t finish fourth.) Against a foe that likes to run the ball and against a coach that has success against the Birds.

But if the Eagles win and carry that momentum into their game against the Giants, suddenly the post-season looks like a real possibility, because the Eagles can beat Michael Vick and the Falcons. Suddenly 8-8 or 9-7 looks like a real possibility. We’ll see.

The NFL’s must-hyped, much-discussed “flex schedule” couldn’t save NBC from showing last night’s 45-21 annihilation of the Eagles at the hands of the 10-1 Indy Colts. Largely born out of last season’s 42-0 embarrassment at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks, ABC dropped Monday Night Football because it was difficult – it not impossible – to rally weary people to the TV set to sit through a horrifying football game when they could be watching Donald Trump display his massive ego for all of the world to see on NBC (“…And I like to think that we sell the classiest, best donuts in all of the world …”) The Donald, so oblivious to his own absurd ridiculousness, is much more fun and entertaining. The flex schedule was part of the NFL's efforts to make prime-time football more appealing to the networks and to make NBC hype the heck out of Sunday Night games when most fans are tired and want to go to sleep, or are having difficulty persuading their spouses to watch a 9th hour of football instead of "Desperate Housewives".

Sadly, when NBC decided to push this game to Sunday night they made a tragic error when hours later McNabb went down. Gone was the dream matchup of Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, the NFL’s two best QBs, replaced by the sight of Jeff Garcia desperately running for his life. Gone was the battle between the reeling Colts and the desperate Eagles. And gone were the viewers. I could barely be motivated to watch and found myself wondering what was happening on "Housewives". It had to be better than this.

In losing their fifth game in their last six, the Eagles have revived horrifying memories of 2005. Meanwhile, their arch-nemesis, T.O., marches towards the playoffs behind a tough defense and a QB who isn’t an immobile target in the pocket. After the Eagles 38-24 victory over the Cowboys earlier in the season little has gone right for the Eagles and little has gone wrong for the Cowboys. Have to feel that T.O. is more than a little happy right now, yeh?

Last night the Colts pounded the Eagles into submission with an astonishing 237 yards rushing on 41 carries. Peyton Manning got to take the night off, throwing just 20 times and completing 14 for another 183 yards. The Colts accumulated 15 first downs on the ground in the game, which saw the heretofore unimpressive Joseph Addai score four TDs. For probably the first time ever with Peyton Manning under center the Colts gained more yardage on the ground than in the air.

Jeff Garcia looked utterly hopeless and I hope that the Garcia Experience lasts no longer. Put in A.J. and take a shot. This team needs someone to stretch the field and restore some memories of the ’02 miracle, when the Eagles looked finished and ended up storming to the best record in the conference.

If there was a plus side to last night’s humiliation, it was that Brian Westbrook had some nice stats, carrying the ball 20 times for 124 yards and catching another seven passes for 46 yards. Westbrook accumulated 170 of the Eagles 300 yards (57%). The rest of the Eagles offense might as well been invisible: Donte Stallworth and Reggie Brown caught two passes for nine yards each. The Eagles wideouts had eight catches for 64 yards and a TD … Terrible. Simply terrible. The Colts defense was able to shorten the field and limit what the Eagles could do to small plays. The Eagles longest play from scrimmage was a 21-yard run by Westbrook. Their longest pass was a 19-yarder to Buckhalter. From an offense that was leading the league in 20+ or 30+ yard plays, this is a major calamity and goes to show you how utterly reliant the Eagles were on McNabb to get much of anything going.

Ironically, despite the Eagles loss, their playoff chances remain open in the NFC. Assuming that Seattle wins tonight against Green Bay, the Eagles only sit a game out of the playoff picture at 5-6, just behind the Giants and Panthers for the two wildcard slots. Despite the Eagles foibles, their NFC mates are very to get them into the playoffs:

-The Atlanta Falcons have collapsed, losing four in the row and it looks like More will be fired for the nightmare that Michael Vick has become. Since defeating the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers in consecutive weeks, two games that saw Vick throw 7 TDs and just 2 Ints, and average 9.18 yards per pass, Vick has thrown 3 TD passes and had six turnovers (four picks, two fumbles), hit just 45% of his passes and average 4.88 yards a pass.

-The Giants have lost three in a row and Tom Coughlin ought to be fired for yesterday’s 24-21 loss to the Titans. For a team to lose concentration like that … it has to be the coach’s fault.

-The Panthers are bizarrely inconsistent. How did they lose yesterday to the Redskins and their rookie QB?

-After looking like a juggernaut, the Bears suddenly look very beatable when Rex Grossman under center.

Right now the NFC looks like a three-way battle between the Seahawks (if they are healthy), the Cowboys and the Saints for supremacy. The Bears will win the division, but the wildcard race looks wide-open. None of these teams seem to want to win it and make the playoffs. Maybe the Eagles will return to January football after all?

The AFC side looks very strong: the Chargers are peaking, the Patriots are playing good ball, the Ravens humiliated the Steelers on Sunday, and the Colts will win the South in a walk. The question is whether the Bengals, Jets and Jaguars can catch the Chiefs and Broncos, two very beatable teams, for the wildcard slots. I say yes, and I predict that the Bengals and Jaguars will be the AFC’s other teams in the playoffs. We’ll see how things shape up next week. Oh yeah, and the Eagles play the Panthers on MNF next week. Suddenly the game doesn’t seem so hopeless.

-Simply losing yesterday’s game to the woeful Tennessee Titans 31-13 put the Eagles in too big of a hole to climb out of. It isn’t so much their record: 5-5 isn’t bad, given that there are a bunch of 6-4 and 5-5 teams the Eagles are pursuing, but their upcoming schedule is too daunting for them to recover from: Sunday night against the Colts (not as difficult as it might seem – Tony Dungy teams don’t deal with adversity well), Monday night against the Panthers (which could be an ouch game), then three consecutive road division games against the Redskins, Cowboys and Giants, followed by what I felt could be the essential equivalent of a playoff game: the season finale at the Linc against the Falcons. It was too tough a road to drive, given that the Eagles had dropped four of their last five games. When the news was official that McNabb was done, it was official that the Eagles were done too.

-So what is the closing line on McNabb? 180 of 316 (57%), 18 TDs, 6 Ints (3-to-1 ratio), 2,647 yards (264.7 yards per game). Interestingly, despite the lack of T.O. (and having big play man Donte Stallworth in-and-out of the lineup), McNabb actually averaged slightly more yards per pass in 2006 than in 2004 (8.4 to 8.3). Extrapolated to a full season, McNabb would have thrown 31 TD passes and 10 Ints, basically what he did in 2004 (31 TDs and 8 picks), and 4,579 yards, much better than the T.O. campaign (3,875).

-So now the Eagles are left with A.J. Feeley and Jeff Garcia. Feeley, remember, filled in for McNabb and Koy Detmer after both went down in ‘02 and led the Eagles to a 5-1 finish to wrap up the season not only get the Birds into the playoffs but put them in with home-field advantage. Can A.J. perform the same magic? I doubt it, but giving Feeley the reins over Garcia would put a younger, more accurate arm in the Eagles lineup and rekindle memories of ’02. Oh, and T.O. wouldn’t explode with joy when the Cowboys beat the Eagles later this season if Feeley is under center instead of his old nemesis Garcia.

-Now it is time to look at 2007. The Eagles have a lot of problems: they can’t run effectively (28th in rushing attempts), they can’t stop the run (22nd in yards per rush allowed), they lack a consistent big play receiver … they have a lot of holes to fill and drafting low again might be nice.

-Sadly, I think you have to start and think about who will succeed McNabb under center. The ACL is a 8-12 month injury. McNabb might not be ready until Turkey Day, 2007. He might miss the entire ’07 campaign. He might not ever come back, if things go wrong.

I think the Eagles long-term strategy needs to be as follows: play A.J. Feeley this season over Garcia. At the end of the season cut Garcia loose and sign a big-time QB in transition to be the Eagles insurance for McNabb’s return. Bank on McNabb returning in 2007, but leave wiggle room for if he has any troubles and you need someone to start the first half of the season in 2007. Start thinking about drafting McNabb’s successor in the ’08 draft. Groom him to be ready in 2010.

-Enjoy this week. I intend to gorge myself on turkey Thursday. My prediction for Sunday is Colts 38, Eagles 10. Good luck A.J.

Being the nerd that I am I sat down after the Eagles game on Sunday and figured out that the Eagles had run the ball 189 times this season prior to Sunday in eight games and had thrown the ball 299 times, or roughly 61% of the Eagles plays from scrimmage. The Eagles threw the ball three times for every two that they ran it going into yesterday.

Which makes yesterday’s game against the Washington Redskins a beautiful thing: the Birds ran the ball 34 times and threw it just 27, or just 44%. The Eagles finally discovered their running game. Brian Westbrook carried the ball for 113 yards on 22 carries, the kind of day we've been expecting from him for a while.

The game’s final drive was a masterpiece. Taking the ball at their own 28 with a little over nine minutes left on the clock, the Eagles proceeded to pound the ball down the Redskins throat. Westbrook ran five consecutive plays, gaining 3, 3, 4, 2 & 11 yards. After Buckhalter ran once and lost a yard, Westbrook ran for 21 yards. Then Buckhalter carried for 3 and 1 yards before McNabb hit Westbrook for a 7 yard pass to keep the drive alive on third and six. After Buckhalter rushed for another 4 yards the Eagles could simply take a knee and run the clock out. Ten carries, fifty-one yards and over nine minutes bled off the clock. It was simply a masterpiece, a spectacular close to the Eagles dominating performance yesterday afternoon. Finally, after allowing the Giants back into the game after leading 24-7, the Eagles figured out how to close out a game.

Apparently Andy Reid turned over play-calling duties to Marty Mornhinweg and the move as a good one: the Eagles broke out of their rut and really stuck it to a good Redskins defense. McNabb’s stats don’t look great (12 of 26, 222 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT), but they were a major improvement from the Jacksonville game (18 of 34, 161 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT) and the Bucs game (3 INTs). The real big news for the Eagles offense was the return of wideout Donte Stallworth, whom McNabb clearly missed during the team’s three-game losing streak. Stallworth had six of the Eagles twelve catches and 139 of the Eagles 222 passing yards. Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith and Westbrook managed just six catches for 83 yards. Westbrook and Stallworth were the Eagles offense on Sunday.

Defensively the Eagles D didn’t have a big task: stop one of the NFL’s least explosive offenses, but they did a nice job collaring the Redskins offense. Mark Brunnell had apparently never lost to the Eagles as an NFL QB, but the Redskins offense netted just 278 yards on Sunday and just 132 were in the air. The Eagles porous pass coverage tightened up and it looked like the Redkins couldn’t stretch the field at all. Maybe the weather had something to do with that, but the Eagles threw the ball effectively deep, so credit the Eagles secondary with keeping Antwan Randle El and Santana Moss bottled up.

That cap on the Redskins pass game – and the game-ending injury to running back Clinton Portis – kept the Redskins from running the ball with too much effectiveness. The Redskins got 146 yards on the ground, but this is a team that needs to run to survive. They got some rushing yards, but the Eagles offense took the big plays and got the points.

There was a ton of good news for the Eagles on Sunday. First off, the Atlanta Falcons unexpectedly laid an egg against the terrible, awful Cleveland Browns, losing 17-13. Vick turned the ball over three times against the Browns and was roundly booed by the fans. Then the Minnesota Vikings lost to the Packers 23-17 to drop them to 4-5. Then, best of all, the Chicago Bears rallied from a 13-3 deficit and roared back to beat the New York Giants 38-20 in a game that has to leave the Giants depressed about the direction the team is going in. More good news: the Saints lost to the Steelers 38-31 yesterday, which means that the Saints advantage over the Eagles is somewhat diminished should the Panthers come on strong late in the season and take the NFC South.

If the playoffs were to begin today the 5-4 Eagles would be in as the higher of the two wildcards thanks to the tie-breaker they hold on the 5-4 Cowboys and the strength of a superior conference record over the 5-4 Falcons and the 5-4 Panthers (assuming that the Panthers defeat the Bucs on Monday Night Football).

I’m not saying that the Eagles are locked in as a wildcard team, but if they cannot over-take the Giants they have a route to the playoffs to take. Winning the NFC East, however, is looking like a definite possibility: the Giants get the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Monday Night Football in a game that looks like a definite ‘L’ for them, followed by the Titans on the road, the Cowboys and then the Panthers in Carolina. The Giants could see their record drop to 7-6 going into the game on December 17 in the Meadowlands against the Eagles. After that the Giants play the Saints and Redskins.

The Cowboys are emerging as the more significant threat to the Eagles as this season shapes up: whomever scheduled the Cowboys must have been taking bribes from Jerry Jones or something, because I am at a loss to explain why the ‘Boys got such a sweetheart of a scheduling deal as this: five of their last seven games are at home. The Eagles play four of their last six on the road. The Cowboys get the Indianapolis Colts at home. The Eagles go to the RCA Dome to play the Colts. Oh, and the Eagles play the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys on the road on consecutive weeks. This schedule was designed to give the Cowboys a shot at the post-season and to keep the Eagles out.

Up next for the Eagles, home against the Tennessee Titans. Make no mistake about it: this is a vital, must-win game for the Eagles. They need to get to 6-4 and set themselves up for their last six games: the Colts, the Panthers, the three NFC East games, and the Falcons. The Titans are 2-7 and I don’t think that Vince Young is going to live up to all of the hype in Nashville. He looks like he has fewer tools than Michael Vick and Vick is a stunningly inconsistent player, looking very good one week against the Steelers, and then losing to the Lions and Browns. Add in the Titans internal turmoil between the coach and GM, and this team looks like a loser next Sunday. The Eagles have always had success against Vick and mobile QBs in general, which is good news. The Eagles have got to win, otherwise they have an exactly 0% margin of error against the rest of the league.

Check out my Phillies blog: I am wrapping up my big series on the 1950 Phillies this week.

The Eagles didn’t play yesterday but they still had a nice day. In addition to resting up a few games ended up going their way and helped their post-season chances, including three games that were upsets and saw teams the Eagles might be chasing in December drop to 4-4 instead of going to 5-3:

-The Minnesota Vikings lost to the 49ers 9-3 in a game that the Vikes ought to have won by a pretty hefty margin. The loss drops the Vikings to 4-4 and is just their second conference loss, important for the Eagles because they might find themselves in competition with the Vikes for the wildcard.

-The Cowboys lost 22-19 to the Redskins, a major victory for the Eagles because it keeps the Cowboys record at 4-4 and keeps the Eagles in second since they own the tie-breaker. At this point the Cowboys are a much bigger threat to do something than the Redskins, so any game the Cowboys lose helps the Eagles out.

-The St. Louis Rams lost 31-17 to the Kansas City Chiefs, which likewise drops their record to 4-4.

-Best of all the Detroit Lions came out of nowhere and upset the Falcons and Michael Vick. After Vick had put together sterling performances in the last two weeks against the Steelers and Cincinnati, he proceeds to turn in a bad performance and lose a conference game. The loss keeps the Falcons record at 5-3 and keeps the Eagles within striking distance.

-In the outside chance that the Eagles can take the division and make a run on homefield advantage in the playoffs (the former being much more likely than the latter), then the Miami Dolphins did the Eagles a big favor by beating the Bears yesterday.

Aside from the Giants narrowly beating the Texans 14-10, yesterday worked out very, very nicely for the Birds. The team got rested and ready for a grueling stretch. Next week they play the Redskins at the Linc. If they want to stay in the playoff race, this is a must-win game.

As many people know I live in the South Hills area of Pittsburgh, so I follow the Steelers (this town is as quiet as a tomb when they play) and yesterday’s tough 31-20 loss to the Denver Broncos basically ends their season. They are 2-6 and sit four games behind the Baltimore Ravens and two behind the Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers still have to play the Bengals once, the Ravens twice and they get non-conference games against the Saints and Panthers. Their only solace is that they get three cream-puff games: two against the Browns and a game against the Buccaneers. In order for the Steelers to make the playoffs they’ll basically have to go 8-0 or 7-1 and get some luck because the wildcard isn’t an option: San Diego and Jacksonville, the two teams currently sitting in the wildcard slots, both own tie-breakers on the Steelers. Their only chance is for the Ravens and the Bengals to implode and give them a chance to sneak in and win the AFC North. That is unlikely, although I don’t think the Ravens are anywhere good as their 6-2 record looks. I think the Steelers will basically stagger to the finish line at 7-9 and that this is Bill Cowher’s final year with the Steelers.

As for the Eagles 13-6 loss yesterday to the Jacksonville Jaguars … Well, the less said the better. The Eagles great Achillies Heel – both of them – were exposed for the world to see on Sunday. First, the Eagles cannot run the ball. Just 85 yards on 20 carries, but 37 of those came from McNabb scrambling five times. Correll Buckhalter managed just ten yards on two carries and Westbrook got 38 yards on thirteen carries. Simply put, the Eagles could not run the ball worth anything and it caused the Jaguar defenders to tee off on McNabb and the wideouts and clamp down on them.

The Eagles passing game had its worst game of the season as a result: McNabb completed just eighteen passes for 161 yards, easily a season-low. Players not named Westbrook caught ten passes for 93 yards. An offense that relies on big plays got none. What really stuns me was how the Eagles wideouts managed just five catches for 73 yards, and Donte Stallworth had three of those grabs. Reggie Brown and Greg Lewis might as well been invisible yesterday. They did nothing.

A big disappointment was L.J. Smith, the Eagles tight end. With the wideouts bottled up, L.J. ought to have had a bigger play making plays, but he caught just one pass for eleven yards. Terrible.

So while I fault McNabb a little for the Eagles poor performance, it was really the failure of the supporting cast – Westbrook dropping passes, the Eagles wideouts vanishing, the Eagles backs not running the ball – that led the Eagles to score just six points. Easily a season-low.

And the Eagles D couldn’t stop the run at all. Jacksonville looked like Nebraska circa 1997 back there, running the ball 46 times for 207 yards. Fred Taylor had 103 yards, Jones-Drew had 77 and David Girard had 36. The Jaguars run game was so good they threw just 17 passes and completed just ten for 87 yards. The Eagles will face Clinton Portis and the Redskins twice this season along with Michael Vick in the season finale (that is starting to loom like a very important game), so we have to stop their running games or we won’t make the playoffs.

So what do the Eagles playoff chances look like? Not good, but anything can happen in this league. What is important is for the Eagles to stick it to the Washington Redskins when they come out of the bye and make up some ground and quick. Last season the Eagles entered the Redskins game at 4-3 and had just dismissed T.O. They lost a game they could have won 17-10 and saw their season implode with a 21-20 loss to the Cowboys the next week. If the Eagles lose to the Redskins they will fall to 4-5 and will need a lot of help getting into the playoffs.

It’s a Must-Win.

All I could think, as I digested the Eagles stunning 23-21 loss yesterday to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was: Wow, that really sucked.

Let’s face it: the Bucs were lucky and the Eagles deserved to lose more than the Bucs deserved to win. The Eagles allowed a pair of defensive touchdowns and surrendered a 62-yard field goal at the very end. You won’t see very many games like that, even in the ever unpredictable NFL, but the Bucs luck was a product of a very sloppy game from Donovan McNabb. Here are my thoughts on the matter:

1. Going into yesterday’s game Donovan McNabb had thrown 13 TDs and 2 Ints. Yesterday he threw 3 TDs and 3 picks. Yesterday McNabb posted his season-low QB rating, just 83.3, the second consecutive week he’s posted his season low QB rating. At the moment McNabb is still leading the NFL in passing yards and TD passes, but he’s fallen to second in QB rating behind Peyton Manning. As Donovan goes, so goes the Eagles …

2. There actually was a lot to like about yesterday’s game (aside from the score): the Bucs netted just 196 yards against the Eagles D, and just 85 through the air, which had been a bit of a weakness. They contained the Bucs offense very well and gave them a hard time. The problem with the Eagles D’s performance was that they didn’t do two things: sack the QB (just two for nine yards); and they didn’t force a turnover.

3. The Eagles moved the ball against a good defense when they weren’t turning it over. The Eagles rushed for an impressive 208 yards on the ground, which is a major, major improvement over the last few weeks. Westbrook got 100 yards rushing and receiving, which is good news: the Eagles need him to stretch the field like Marshall Faulk used to do for the St. Louis Rams.

4. The Eagles wideouts looked pretty bottled up. We need Donte Stallworth back to making impact plays soon. The Eagles wideouts had 12 catches for 166 yards. And 41 of those came on one of Reggie Brown’s catches. C’mon guys: you are giving TO ammo!

5. The really bad news is that the loss technically drops the Eagles into third place at the moment, although that will change with tonight’s Cowboys-Giants game (the Eagles will lap the loser for second). A quick gaze at the playoff picture reveals a few issues for the Eagles: the Bears are 6-0 and show no signs of slowing down. The Saints are 5-1 and now own a tiebreaker on the Eagles. Home field advantage and a first-round playoff bye might be off the table for the Eagles for the 2006 playoffs. Perhaps both teams will struggle down the stretch (we are talking about the Saints, after all, but I doubt it. I think that getting that first round bye that has been so vital to the Eagles playing in the NFC title game is not going to happen.

The real problem is that the Eagles need to start turning their attention to the mundane tasks of winning the division, getting into the playoffs, and making sure they do better than .500. The NFC looks much stronger than in years past, so winning the NFC East might be the Eagles best bet for making the playoffs, because there are a lot of good teams with four wins sitting in second or third place in their divisions right now (Rams, Vikings, Falcons, Panthers). The Eagles late-season matchups with the Falcons and Panthers might loom larger, as they might determine playoff tie-breakers in the event that the Eagles find themselves looking for a wildcard.

Anybody notice how much tougher that schedule looks? Panthers. Falcons. Jaguars. Colts. Cowboys and Giants on the road. The Redskins twice. It is going to be tough for the Eagles to go 10-6. Sad to say, but this loss might loom very large as the season rolls on.

The NFL network last night and observed the pitifull performance turned in by Eagles Cheerleaders Janipher and Allison in last night's episode. Jeez, dead-last? Terrible. Simply terrible. I can't believe they got the Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears mixed up as well. Tisk, tisk.

The Eagles 27-24 loss to New Orleans yesterday is extremely disappointing, especially given the fact that the Cowboys and Giants both won their games, but it wasn’t overly surprising: the Saints are for real. They have a good QB in Drew Brees, who it hitting on all cylinders and runs the Saints short-range passing game very, very well. Meanwhile, the Saints D is much better than it has been, much more aggressive, much more brutal.

I don’t think the Eagles played a bad game. Streaky, yes, but bad … definitely not. The Saints disrupted McNabb well enough, but couldn’t prevent the Eagles Offense from scoring 24 points. I have a couple of thoughts:

1. The Eagles need to run the ball more. They called 35 passes to 19 runs. I am not saying that their pass-run ratio is going to be 1:1, but it ought to be a little closer to that than 2:1.

2. The Saints really did a nice job holding Brian Westbrook in check. Three receiving yards? Ouch.

3. McNabb didn’t spread the ball like he did against the Cowboys: Reggie Brown was the sole Eagles WR who got anything going in the game. A week removed from his big 87-yard TD and Hank Baskett got nothing?

4. Another week, another pick for Lito Shepard.

5. McNabb is off to a blistering start and didn’t get slowed much yesterday – although yesterday was a season-low in terms of passing yardage. Still, McNabb is hitting on 59% of his throws, with 1,849 yards, 13 TDs and 2 INTs. Right now McNabb is leading the NFL in TD passes, yardage and QB rating.

Up next: the Eagles play the Buccaneers. First time the Eagles have played the Buccaneers since they lost the first game at the Linc, 17-0, part of the disastrous 0-2 start to the 2003 campaign, which saw them roll off ten victories in their final eleven games. I wouldn’t quite call it a “must-win”, but it is the easiest game on the Eagles schedule until they play Tennessee at the end of November.

Check out Part III of my series on the Wiz Kids over at A Citizens Blog.

It was only a matter of time before Mt. Owens blew up and I think it happened yesterday with T.O.’s little tantrum to the media where he bitched about not getting the ball enough. My favorite part was when T.O. acknowledged being told that the Cowboys base offense wouldn’t change to accommodate him, but he signed on with the ‘Boys anyway and expected them to make him the focal point of their offense. I could just imagine Bill Parcells slapping his hand to his face and groaning when he heard that.

Thanks to this last week I think you can safely say that T.O.’s days in Dallas are numbered. How long do you think a master motivator / manipulator like Bill Parcells is going to put up with this crap? He’s had to deal with the T.O. show all summer long and now that it is fall and he’s right back to acting like a spoiled child, when will Parcells simply say: “Enough is enough”? And yet here is T.O. doing what he did in San Francisco and what he did in Philadelphia: blaming the quarterback, reaming out the coaches for not adjusting their plans to fit his designs, and making his battle about him vs. the team and not the team vs. the rest of the NFL.

I was watching the NFL network’s replay of the Eagles and Cowboys and I was struck by what everyone said afterwards about Lito Shepard’s first pick, when T.O. broke up the field and Bledsoe underthrew the route: Troy Aikman speculated that the play was more a miscommunication between T.O. and Bledsoe than Bledsoe making a bad throw. In the post-game, Bledsoe claimed he and T.O. had a miscommunication and that was why the pick happened. T.O.? Usual act from him: veiled accusations that the play was Bledsoe’s fault. The unbiased observer (Aikman) faulted T.O. for a miscommunication, Bledsoe took responsibility for his end of a mutual mistake, T.O. blamed someone else.

Eagles – Saints this week. Not to denigrate the Saints, but I don’t believe that they are anywhere near as good as their 4-1 record suggests. Three of their four wins were against the Browns, Packers and Buccaneers. Combined record of those teams: 2-12. I was impressed by their emotional homecoming win over the Falcons, but can they sustain that emotion? I doubt it. They haven’t come into contact with a team as explosive and aggressive as this one yet.

Stay tuned for Part II of the Wiz Kids, my series on the 1950 Philadelphia Phillies, tomorrow on my Phillies blog, A Citizen's Blog.

Sorry for the belated post on the Eagles 38-24 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. I actually was in the Philadelphia area this past weekend and didn’t return to my home outside Pittsburgh until late yesterday night.

I honestly don’t think that the Eagles game could have gone any better. There were no reports of ugliness in the stands towards T.O., the Eagles won and won a division game (better still), McNabb had a terrific day and T.O. was basically shut out and spent part of the time on the sidelines screaming at his coaches. Bill Parcells won’t tolerate that for much longer.

-Generally, I am going to echo the sentiment of every other pundit: the Eagles-Cowboys game was a massive victory for the Eagles defense. They provided the Giants and Redskins with a compelling blueprint for containing T.O.: put a body on him at all times and put pressure on Drew Bledsoe, that enormous statute that sits in the Cowboys pocket. Bledsoe has a cannon for an arm, but he’s an old-style pocket passer in a mobile QB age.

Even without Jevon Kearse the Eagles D played great, consistently getting pressure up the middle to Bledsoe, forcing him to throw the ball away or take a sack. I was really impressed by the job that Brian Dawkins, Sheldon Brown and Lito Shepard did all game long in coverage with T.O. and Terry Glenn and Jason Witten. This is a Dallas team with lots of weapons on offense and the Eagles did a great job putting pressure on Bledsoe and keeping those guys contained for nearly the entire game. The secondary turned in a terrific performance. Now if the linebackers could finally stop the running game…

-McNabb is on track to throw for a Peyton Manning-like 5,126 yards this season. Thus far this season he’s thrown for 314, 350, 296, 288 and 354 yards. McNabb has also thrown eleven TD’s and just one INT. Yes, he’s been picked once in 176 attempts. He’s also averaging 9.1 yards per pass attempt. He’s been fantastic this season. Honestly, this might be his finest season yet, better than his T.O.-inflated 2004 campaign, better than his do-it-himself 2000 campaign where Marshall Faulk robbed him of the MVP. He has to be the MVP front-runner for 2006. He’s carried the Eagles with their weak rushing attack on his arm without a super-star wide-out back there. As long as #5 is out there, the Eagles can win.

-Well, the Eagles still can’t get much of a running game going. I wonder if the Steelers would consider parting with Duce Staley. He knows our system, he’s popular and he’s still a good runner. Plus the Steelers are content to go with Najea Davenport and Willie Parker. The Eagles need some sort of #2 back to take the pressure off Westbrook and open some lanes.

-Something else that impressed me from Sunday: the Eagles threw for 354 yards without Donte Stallworth, arguably their best wideout. Hopefully he’ll play Sunday. I figure he and Darren Howard would be up to it.

-Sunday: Saints. In the past I’d figure you could put a gigantic ‘W’ next to this game, but the ‘Aints are playing well. What worries me is not their momentum, but why they are winning: the play of their running back duo of Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. Seems to me that this is the type of attack that the Eagles are ill-equipped to stop, with their problems stopping the running game. I still think the Eagles will win, but it is vital they get a ‘W’ this week and next so they are 6-1 going into the Jacksonville game, which will be tough and physical. After that, they get the meat of their schedule: Carolina, Giants and Cowboys on the road, the Redskins twice, Indy, and Vick and the Falcons. Win now, survive later.

Check out my Phillies blog, A Citizens Blog, to read Part I of my series on the 1950 Phillies.

Eagles fans gearing up for T.O. Let the fun begin!

Let’s talk some football … Do you know what really pisses me off about the Eagles 30-24 OT loss in week two to the Giants? We’d be 4-0 heading into this Sunday’s matchup with T.O. with games right after that against the over-rated Saints and the ripe-for-the-plucking Buccaneers. We could have been 7-0 heading into the pre-bye game against the Jaguars.

Still, 3-1 is good and the Eagles turned in a dominating performance last night. The defense did a great job with Brett Favre. Sure they never sacked him, but they got pressure in on him the entire evening and forced him to throw two interceptions and twenty incompletions. The Packers never got anything going all night long.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles looked like the old pre-T.O. team. McNabb ran for 47 yards, something that he got away from once T.O. joined the team and he injured his hernia last year. Donovan looked good out there, juking and jiving around the field, spreading the ball around and throwing lasers. His 21-yard toss to L.J. Smith was literally perfect – the only way he could have gotten the ball to him was to thread the needle and lay it in over the defender’s hands. McNabb looked confident and in-control.

I thought the Eagles run-game was so-so. They did a decent job given that they didn’t have Brian Westbrook in the backfield. Moats and Buckhalter combined for 71 yards on 18 carries which is … so-so. They need to commit to the run more late in games to close them out. In McNabb’s final drive of the game they were still throwing the ball. They need to commit to the run at the end of games more.

Anyway, with the Eagles season just heating up and the Phillies season winding down I am anticipating doing more posting at The Bird Blog in the coming weeks, especially with T.O. vs. McNabb in the offing next week. Over at A Citizen's Blog, my Phillies blog, I will continue to follow the playoffs, discuss the Phillies post-season decisions and start posting my big, big, big project next Tuesday morning.

(I promise to return to longer posts once the Phillies season is over.)

Nice 38-24 win the Eagles got in the City by the Bay. McNabb riddled the ‘Niners D for 296 yards and two TDs on 18-of-33 passing. The Eagles D scored a touchdown and did a good job bottling up the ‘Niners offense early before slackening off and allowing some cheap second-half yardage. Here are the 49ers yards by quarter:

1st Quarter: 12
2nd Quarter: 93
3rd Quarter: 177
4th Quarter: 90

The Eagles out-gained the ‘Niners 172 to 12 in the first quarter, and 318 to 105 in the first half.

Mike Patterson made probably the decisive play of the game when he ran the fumble back for a TD, which made the game 31-3 and effectively put it out of reach for the 49ers.

My only gripe … well, my two gripes are that the Eagles turned in another miserable second-half performance and they really didn’t run the ball again.

First, the Birds netted -16 yards in the third quarter while the ‘Niners got 177. Time of Possession in the second half was lop-sided: the ‘Niners held the ball for 21:15 while the Birds had it for 8:45.

Second, the Birds really didn’t try to run the ball. Sure Brian Westbrook had 117 yards of rushing. He also only carried the ball eight times and 61% of those yards came on a single play. Look at what the Eagles did in their second-half drives: run by Westbrook for five yards, McNabb incomplete, McNabb incomplete, Punt. Next drive: McNabb completes a pass for negative one yard, Buckhalter runs for two yards, McNabb sacked, punt. Next drive: McNabb incomplete, Westbrook runs for seven yards, McNabb passes for five yards, McNabb passes for sixty yards, Westbrook rushes for touchdown. Next drive: Moats runs for eight yards, McNabb incomplete, McNabb incomplete, Punt. Next Drive: Buckhalter for three yards, Buckhalter for four yards, McNabb sacked, Punt.

Second-half play selection: ten passes, seven runs. They still need more balance.

Next-up: Monday Night against the 1-2 Packers and Brett Favre, who had his best game in probably a year or two yesterday against the Lions (25-of-35, 340 yards, three TDs). Not an easy game, plus the Eagles have to avoid the temptation of looking forward to October 8th against the Cowboys.

I've been having fun with You Tube.com looking at clips from The Daily Show and the Colbert Report and I found this clip of the Eagles 4th & 1 stand against the Dallas Cowboys in 1995. Great moment in Eagles history. Watch!

Okay, so here is the deal. I really want to get back to blogging the Eagles and I have a lot to say about the team, especially after last weekend's 30-24 loss to the G-men. But right now all of my energy is focused on A Citizens Blog: the Phillies run to the post-season and some long-term projects I am wrapping up there. Check back in October, and I'll be back full-tilt.

I’ve decided to do a brief NFL preview which I will post jointly on A Citizens Blog and The Bird Blog, my old quasi-defunct Eagles blog. I don’t blog the Eagles because I don’t have enough time and working with the baseball stats is so much fun: stats aren’t nearly as important in football, where so much is done that cannot be measured and is left up to opinion (e.g., blocking, coverage techniques, etc). I will chime in from time-to-time this season on how I think things are going.

Last year was a terrible year for the Eagles and I hope that they’ll improve. What I saw from Donovan in the preseason suggests that they’ll bounce back quite nicely: Donovan looked crisp and sharp, moving around with authority in the pocket and really zipping the ball. I think he’ll do well.

Overall, I’d say that there is a lot of parity in the NFL this season. The Steelers aren’t clear favorites to repeat, and the talent gap between the NFC and AFC is much narrower. Things are wide-open this season. Here are my predictions, starting in the AFC:

AFC East: (Playoff Seeding)
1. New England Patriots (2)
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Buffalo Bills
4. New York Jets

AFC East: The Dolphins have made some moves, but it is hard not to be impressed by the continued resiliency of the New England Patriots. Other teams add flashy players and make noise, but the Pats win by consistency and toughness. Tom Brady is a winner too. As long as they have a ground game, the Pats are the class of the division. Are the Dolphins really improved? Everyone assumes to now that they’ve got Dante Culpepper, but I am not sure Culpepper is an improvement. He’s a flashy QB and he’s got talent, but he’s also too error-prone to be an effective field general like Brady. The Dolphins will be solid on defense, but Culpepper makes too many mistakes. The Bills are busy rebuilding and won’t challenge the Pats and Dolphins. This is a franchise stuck in neutral. As for the Jets, the less said the better. I feel a lot of pity for these guys. I think the careers of Curtis Martin and Chad Pennington’s are at an end and that their defense is broken down. This is the start of a rebuilding campaign in New York.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (3)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (5)
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Cleveland Browns

AFC North: The North was once the weakest division in the NFL, but it has gotten much stronger of late. I like the Steelers to win the division again. They’ve got a pretty good defensive unit and even without Jerome Bettis they’ll run the ball quite effectively. My only question I have about the Stillers is Roethlisberger: he looked rusty in the Steelers-Eagles preseason game and I have to wonder if the accident is messing with his head. The Steelers apparently want to throw the ball more this season, which I think is a major mistake: Roethlisberger is the ball-control QB. He’s not a gun-slinger. The Bengals have a major question mark: Carson Palmer. Is Carson Palmer 100%? I’m not so sure. He had a great season in 2005 and seemed poised for greatness. Will his injury destroy that promise? It is a major if. Otherwise I think the Bengals are actually more talented than the Steelers: they have a lot of weapons on offense and seemed to get better as the season wore on. They had the fourth-highest scoring offense in the NFL last season. Their defense is good but not great. If Carson Palmer is 100% this will be a good duel between the Bengals and Steelers for the AFC North, otherwise the Steelers can weather the QB storm better than the Bengals can because they can rely on their defense. As for the Ravens, they’ll be better than last year because they have a major upgrade at QB with Steve McNair. But is McNair the difference-maker? I doubt it. The Ravens feel like they’ve worn down, all those seasons of the defense having to pitch shutouts in order for the Kyle Boller-led offense to win. What they really need is for Jamal Lewis to return to his pre-prison form and become their star running back again. The Ravens will be good, but they won’t do much better than 9-7 or 10-6 at best. The Cleveland Browns are hopeless. They really are. This team has no QB and their star player is Kellen Winslow, who acts like he has an IQ of 6. This team looks like 3-13 and a high draft pick.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (4)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Houston Texans

AFC South: I actually think there will be a close race for the division title between the Jags and Colts. I like the Colts, though they will be nothing even remotely as good as last year’s squad. I like Peyton Manning a lot, but this team won’t be as good as last year. Their spectacular implosion after starting the season 13-0 was impressive. This team has no mental toughness and I doubt that it will be able to return to the playoffs and make the push to the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning will continue to throw for 4,000 yards a season and throw 35-40 TD passes a season, but the Colts D isn’t tough enough (yes, they ranked second in the NFL in points allowed, but that was a function of their offense holding onto the ball) and their running game won’t be that good in 2006. Look for teams to put more pressure on Manning and clamp down on his wideouts more. I like the Jaguars and I think that Byron Leftwich will make strides as the Jags QB, but this team needs to improve its defense in 2006. They gave up too many rushing yards to the opposition and didn’t move the ball consistently enough. They are a year away. I look at the Titans and I wonder if they didn’t make a major mistake with Vince Young. Yes, he looked spectacular in college. Clearly, the Titans are hoping Young has Michael Vick-like talent. The problem is that Vick himself hasn’t realized his own talent: he is a maddeningly inconsistent QB. One minute he looks like a genius, the next he’s throwing picks and making bad choices. I suspect Young will be more streaky than Vick. In the here and now, I expect Young to take over as the Titans QB later in the season and he’s going to struggle. There isn’t much talent left back there. This team needs to forget about those glory days when they were trying to win the Super Bowl and concentrate on rebuilding. As for the Texans … this team passed on Young and Reggie Bush and selected a D-lineman. They need help at nearly every position on offense and show no signs of making a run at a 8-8 record, let alone a 11-5 one. This is a franchise that has “also-ran” stamped on it.

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (1)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (6)
3. Denver Broncos
4. Oakland Raiders

AFC West: I really like the Chargers. I like the Chargers as a 13-3 team with definite Super Bowl aspirations. Here are some of the reasons why I like the Chargers: 1) They were the NFL’s top defense against the run in 2005, allowing just 84 yards a game. 2) They were the NFL’s fifth-highest scoring offense. 3) They were the NFL’s fifth-best team at converting on third down. 4) They were the NFL’s fifth-best team at getting to the quarterback. This team has a lot of weapons. LaDamien Tomlinson is probably the best running back in the league and Phillip Rivers is going to step into the breach and play much better than Drew Brees. Bottom-line: this is the AFC’s best team. The Chiefs are a great team and I’d like to pick them to win the division, but I don’t think the Chiefs are tight enough on defense to make it happen. They will score points in droves. And Larry Johnson, despite being a Penn State alum, is a good running back. But this team needs an overhaul on defense. I was not surprised at all when the Denver Broncos lost the AFC title game to the Steelers: I suspected Jake Plummer was going to collapse under the pressure and sure enough he did. I like Mike Shanahan, but he needs to drop Jake Plummer like a hot potato and move on to Jay Cutler. This is a talented team, but their QB is holding them back. Meanwhile, in Oakland, the Randy Moss show enters season two. The Raiders used to be a great franchise but have been shells of themselves since Jon Gruden left to go to Tampa. They need a toughness and aggressiveness that I don’t think Art Shell is going to provide. Their biggest problem is that they don’t have a QB: Aaron Brooks never played well enough to justify his inconsistency. Their lack of a QB is going to drive Randy Moss nuts. He’s going to catch 50-60 passes and be lucky to hit 1,000 yards, and that is going to cause Randy Moss’ head to explore in fury. As long as this team has a pain in the ass distraction like Moss on the roster they will struggle to rebuild. My advice to Art Shell: cut Moss, start rebuilding. This team is a flop.

Playoffs:

The AFC playoffs kick off with the Steelers defeating the pesky Chiefs in a tight game that sees a bit of a role reversal: the Steelers throwing the ball while the Chiefs pound it on the ground. Home field gives the Stillers their edge as they win. Meanwhile the Bengals and Colts have a high-scoring track meet in the Dome that the Bengals win due to their toughness. In the divisional round the Bengals are routed by the Chargers, who thwart the Bengals at every turn with a high-scoring offense and a tough D. Carson Palmer is hurried all game long. Meanwhile, the Patriots continue their domination of the Steelers, winning on a late field goal in Foxboro. The Chargers and Pats square off the next week but the warm weather helps the Chargers to emerge victorious.

Wildcard round
(3) Pittsburgh Steelers over (6) Kansas City Chiefs, 16-13
(5) Cincinnati Bengals over (4) Indianapolis Colts, 38-31

Divisional Round
(2) New England Patriots over (3) Pittsburgh Steelers, 21-20
(1) San Diego Chargers over (5) Cincinnati Bengals, 38-15

AFC Championship Game:
(1) San Diego Chargers over (2) New England Patriots, 24-21

On to the NFC...

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (1)
2. New York Giants
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

NFC East: Everyone keeps talking about how improved the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys are. The most improved team in the division has to be the Eagles. 1) They get Donovan McNabb back. 2) They have depth again in the D-line with Darren Howard and Jevon Kearse being 100%. 3) They got rid of T.O. 4) Correll Buckhalter is going to have a monster season. I’m impressed from what I saw in the preseason. The Birds look to be united, McNabb looks focused and determined and the defense looks rested and ready. The Eagles are a veteran team loaded with a nice mix of younger and veteran players. In the four seasons before T.O. came to Philly the Eagles went 11-5, 11-5, 12-4, and 12-4 and made the playoffs each year. This team looks like those pre-T.O. teams. As long as the Eagles establish a running game with Buckhalter and Westbrook, they will once more put points on the board. Look for L.J. Smith to be the breakout player, catching lots on red zone TDs. I like the Giants for second, although this team will struggle. Adding Lavar Arrington leaves me profoundly unimpressed. He’s a college superstar who can’t live up to the hype. Same with Eli Manning. Same with Jeremy Shockey. There are a lot of players on the Giants who look good on paper but games aren’t played on paper. As for Tom Coughlin, he is a terrible coach for a team of veterans like this. Coughlin was just what the Jaguars needed circa 1995 and 1996, a tough disciplinarian who whipped them into shape. Naturally, after that the Jaguars broke down and never got to the top because Coughlin was too narrow-minded and too rigid to adjust his approach to the game. These Giants will chafe under Coughlin’s demands and I expect this season to be very rocky. Same old Redskins. They added a few players and Antwaan Ranel-El will play well occasionally for the ‘Skins, but this team needs a new QB. Mark Brunell isn’t cutting it. It is pretty much the same old story for the Redskins: they add people via free agency, spend a lot and don’t get much of a return. I expect a tough year for Joe Gibbs. This team will go 7-9. I look at the mess in Dallas and can’t help but want to point at Cowboys fans and laugh. Suckers. He’s YOUR problem now. Same old T.O. Just by bitching about his hamstring and stating that he doesn’t need to practice he’s gotten under Bill Parcells skin and given the ‘Boys a major distraction. This guy is a cancer. Add in he problem that the ‘Boys need a new QB – Drew Bledsoe is past his prime and too immobile to be an effective QB anymore – and you can see the makings of a loooong year in Big D. Honestly, I expect this season to be so miserable for Parcells, I’d expect him to leave town at the end.

NFC North
1. Chicago Bears (3)
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Detroit Lions

NFC North: The Bears will win this division by default. They have a weak offense and one of the best defenses in the NFL. Playing six of their games against the Lions, Vikes and Pack, they are going to win the division. This is the only team in the NFL that can consistently win 9-7 games. Will they be better at QB with Rex Grossman? I doubt it. They don’t have much talent on offense, but with their D, they’ll still win the weakest division in football. I think the Vikes are a year away. They’ve got some talent, but Brad Childress needs some time to install his system and get things going. They might be a nice dark horse at the end of the year, but not now. This will be Brett Favre’s last harrah in Green Bay, but it won’t be a good one. Favre is starting to really struggle these days and should have retired last season. There is talent on the Packers, but they really need to sit down and rebuild and prepare for life after Favre. The less said about the Lions the better. All of those years picking wideouts who never do anything. Joey Harrington. Matt Millen is the worst GM in the game and needs to leave ASAP. This team needs to tear down and rebuild from the bottom up.

NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers (2)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5)
3. Atlanta Falcons (6)
4. New Orleans Saints

AFC South: Is this the best division in the NFL? Maybe. I think the Carolina Panthers are a great team. They have a nasty defense that takes the ball away from the opposition, they have an explosive offense that can move the ball and control it on the ground. They also have a cagey QB in Jake Delhomme. The Panthers are a great team. I am not a big fan of the Buccaneers, specifically Chris Simms. I think the Bucs got lucky in ’05 and played over their heads. That said, this is still a good team. They will run the ball well with Williams and they will corral Michael Vick twice a year. That ought to be good enough for 10-6 and a wildcard. With the Falcons and Michael Vick I keep waiting to be impressed. There is a ton on talent on this team and their QB is sanctified by the rest of the NFL as being the “Michael Jordan on the NFL”, and yet they only ranked fourteenth in the NFL in points scored. Huh? They were eighteenth in points allowed. There is something wrong with these guys and the way they play football. If Vick could ever convert his talent into results, he’d live up to his hype, but now I’d say the Falcons will fight to go 9-7 and make the playoffs. With Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush in the backfield, the Saints could have one of the most lethal offenses in the NFL. I like what I see from Reggie Bush: he’s got moves and he looks difficult to bring down. I think the Saints might surprise a lot of people and be halfway decent in 2006. Maybe even be in the playoff mix. They have a lot of promise for 2007.

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks (4)
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. St. Louis Rams

NFC West. I was surprised that the Super Bowl between the Seahawks and Steelers was so close. The Seahawks were a paper tiger, blitzing through a weak schedule (never beating a team with a winning record, aside from the Giants), catching the offensively-challenged Redskins and the running-game-less-Panthers in the playoffs before inevitably losing to the Stillers. Even so, it was a surprise to me that the Seahawks nearly won, despite the referees bias for the Black and Gold. That said, the Seahawks are back and are the class of a weak division. I see this as a re-play of 2005, although the Seahawks will finish 10-6 instead of 13-3. They have a good collection of talent, but aren’t particularly strong. I think the Cardinals might surprise some people. They’ve got weapons with Edgerin James and Larry Fitzgerald, and when Matt Leinart takes over for Kurt Warner, they are going to put some points on the board. If any team can beat the Seahawks, it is them. The 49ers are making strides. Alex Smith looks like he’s going to have a good season as the Niners QB. The problem is that the rest of the team needs to keep upgrading. The Niners have to hope for an 8-8 record at best. As for the Rams, at least St. Louis fans have fond memories of those two Super Bowls when it looked like the Rams were dynasty in the making. Those days are gone. This team has no talent and no shot at making a run.

NFC Playoffs

The class of the NFC are the Eagles and Panthers, who will have to wait to rematch the 2003 NFC Title game once more. In the wildcard round the Bears will corral Michael Vick in the cold of Chicago, while the Bucs manhandle the less-physical Seahawks. In the divisional round the Bears inability to run or pass leaves them at the mercy of the Panthers, who win easily. The Eagles, meanwhile, avenge the 2002 NFC Title game as well, defeating the Bucs easily. The 2006 NFC title game is a close contest, but the Eagles prevail thanks to an improved running game and an improved run defense. On to Super Bowl XLI.

Wildcard Round:
(3) Chicago Bears over (6) Atlanta Falcons, 10-7
(5) Tampa Bay Bucs over (4) Seattle Seahawks, 17-7

Divisional Round:
(1) Philadelphia Eagles over (5) Tampa Bay Bucs, 31-21
(2) Carolina Panthers over (3) Chicago Bears, 28-20

NFC Championship:
(1) Philadelphia Eagles over (2) Carolina Panthers, 27-24

Super Bowl XLI will be between the Chargers and the Eagles. Sadly for those fond of history it won’t be a rematch of a previous Super Bowl or a grudge match between two coaches who don’t like each other. Marty Schottenheimer will be the sentimental favorite, coaching in his first Super Bowl after all of those years with the Browns, Chiefs, Redskins and Chargers. It will be a battle between two high-octane offenses, as Phillip Rivers and Donovan McNabb move the ball up and down the field at will. In the end, the Eagles newfound ability to stop the run will be the decisive factor. Call it, Philadelphia Eagles 31, San Diego Chargers 24.

Everyone, go check out A Citizen's Blog and keep track of this exciting playoff race that the Phillies are involved in ... I will be back for the Eagles season soon ....

With the Phillies poised to wave the white flag of surrender on the 2006 season very shortly, I plan to return to the field with the Bird Blog next week. You'll see a few changes before that....

It is a little premature to be talking about the Eagles 2006 schedule given that the free agency season really hasn't begun in earnest, the dates for the games aren't set, and the draft hasn't happened. We have vague ideas about how good teams will be in 2006, but there is a lot to be determined. Still, it's fun to make a few preliminary notes:

NFC East: Can you believe that the Birds went 0-6 after going 16-2 over the last three seasons? It was a historic collapse and raises some troubling questions about the Eagles prospects for success in 2006. Much of the Eagles success was their ability to clobber the Cowboys, Redskins and G-men. The Eagles went 27-7 against the NFC East from 2000-2004, a .794 winning percentage, against the NFC East. They went 43-35 (.551) against the rest of the NFL during that time frame. Prior to this season the Birds had won nine of ten from the Cowboys, eight of ten from the Redskins and seven of ten from the Giants.

That level of dominance against bitter division rivals has been unprecedented and probably can't be replicated again. Therefore, the fact that all three of these teams defeated the Eagles in 2005 is problematic. Simply put, the Giants, the Redskins and the 'Boys are all better than they have been. Even the Cowboys, a team the Eagles owned since the 41-14 drubbing to open the 2000 season, were vastly better in 2005. A 3-3 record against division foes might happen in '06. I'd say that the Eagles need a 4-2 split to safely win the division and make the playoffs. I just don't see another 5-1 or 6-0 blitz through the division as a possibility.

What team worries me? Probably the Redskins. I like their defensive toughness and their ability to run the ball (always the Eagles Achilles Heel). Their team is aggressive and tough and well-coached. What don't I like? Well, their quaterback situation is more than a little unsettled: I don't think Patrick Ramsey, MarkBrunell or even Jason Williams are the answer to their QB woes. Tampa has a great defensive unit but part of the Redskins anemic offensive performance in the wildcard game was a product of the fact that they are weak at the QB slot. But with a running game like theirs and a tough defense that makes accumulating yards perilously difficult, I think that the Redskins are the best bet to challenge the Eagles. I think the Eagles will have to struggle to win against them in 2006. I'd be happy with a 1-1 split with the 'Skins.

I don't fear the New York Giants. I'm not a fan of Eli Manning: there is a lot of hype out there about him, but I think people see him and think he's the player his brother is. He isn't. He isn't blessed by Peyton's quick release or his ability to see the depth of the game. Eli regressed in '05 and he hadn't made much progress in '04 to begin with. I'm also not a fan of Tom Coughlin: he's not a particularly innovative coach or a particularly smart one. When he led the Jaguars he molded the young club into a contender early on, but his iron grip on the team killed their development. Notice that the team did nothing after they lost the 1999 AFC title game to the Titans. The Jags fell apart after the '99 season, going 19-29 under Coughlin's watch and sliding into mediocrity. A team boasting talent like Jimmy Smith, Mark Brunell and Fred Taylor going 19-29 is stunning. Coughlin's micromanagement stiffled the team's development and killed any chance they had to build a winner in Jacksonville.

Similarly, I see Coughlin doing the same with the Giants. I don't see Jeremy Shockey or Tiki Barber or Michael Strahan graciously accepting Coughlin's dictates. His iron discipline will get old fast. They are a good bet to collapse and finish fourth in '06.

I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. My initial fear of T.O. traveling to Dallas to play with the 'Boys has receded now that the Broncos look to be the front-runners for T.O.'s services. (Fine by me, we don't play them again until 2009.) I think they've got some talent, but they look like a patchwork of veterans Bill Parcells stitched together to make a run at the Super Bowl: Terry Glenn, MeShawn Johnson and Drew Bledsoe. I think they'll be stronger than the G-men, but I see them as an 8-8, third place squad.

Conference foes: This year's rotation matches the Eagles up against the NFC South, probably the strongest division in the NFC, with additional games against the Packers and 49ers. The games against the 'Niners and Saints are virtually gimmies, despite the fact that they are both on the road. I don't see much hope for either team in 2006: the 49ers seem almost permanently mired in rebuilding these days, and the Saints are simply hopeless. These are great matchups for the Eagles to draw.

I'm cautiously optimistic about the Packers too. The team seems in disarray, particularly if Brett Favre calls it quits and packs it in. I see this as the beginning of a period of decline for the Pack: I'm don't think Aaron Rodgers is answer at QB and I think this team needs some help. Add in that this is at home, and this looks like a "W" to me.

The rest of the conference schedule is pretty tough stuff: I think the Panthers will be one of the Eagles biggest games in 2006, particularly if it is late in the season and the two teams are competing for playoff seeding. Add in the fact that the game is in Philly and it could be a potential "must-win" for the regular season. I think the Panthers will really upgrade themselves in the offseason and add some tools to their offense. I think this could be a regular season preview of the 2006 NFC title game.

The Bucs and Falcons are lesser quantities. I like the Bucs and I think they'll be a dangerous team in 2006. I was actually impressed with Chris Simms play at the end of the season and I think Cadillac Williams will be a big-time back in this league for years to come. I'm less threatened by the Falcons, who look like a yo-yo team: up one week, down another. Michael Vick does a great job at times and others he looks frustrated and angry. I just don't think the Falcons will be able to consistently put together a winning drive with him as their QB. Each time people assume that the Falcons are ready to make a statement they falter, and badly. In '03 Vick's injuries ended their season before it began. In '05 his unsteady play doomed the team. In their '02 and '04 playoff losses to the Eagles the Falcons were done in when Vick was held captive.

Simply put, if the Eagles restock their defensive line, I think they'll be effective in corralling Vick. Another variable is when the game will be played: if it is a December game, I bet that the Eagles will have a decisive advantage.

I think the Eagles can win the 'Niners, Saints and Packers games and win two of the three matchups against the Panthers, Bucs and Falcons (two of those three are played at home). So the Non-Division conference games should yield a 4-2 or a 5-1 record.

Non-conference foes: Drawing the AFC South brings up some interesting issues for 2006. Namely, will the Colts still be reeling from their collapse in the playoffs? Will the Jaguars build on '05 and make the playoffs? Are the Titans done rebuilding from salary cap purgatory? What's up with the Texans?

I suspect that the Titans and the Texans will be easy prey for the Birds in 2006. Both of these teams have big issues they need to work out. The Texans have been trying to build towards a winning record for all of their four seasons and don't seem to be making much progress.

I also suspect that the Colts are going to be a shadow of their former selves in 2006. To be dominated so throughly by the Steelers and then blow a golden opportunity to escape with a win? I cannot believe that a team could go 13-0 and then collapse so throughly. This team will be shattered going into next season. I just don't seeing them playing even remotely at their old level. This is a team in decline.

The big team in the AFC South is going to be the Jags. I like Byron Leftwich a lot and I think this team will upgrade their defense a little. In short, I think the Jags will go 12-4 again and win the AFC South in a walk.

We'll know more about the Eagles schedule when the NFL reveals it in the spring. The game against the Carolina Panthers means more if the Panthers are fighting for the playoffs and the game takes place in December than if it is the first game of the year. The Eagles have lost four of their last five season openers, so opening game losses I typically greet with a shrug. It's when the team loses game two that fans should freak out. I'd rather see the NFL schedule the Texans game or the Saints game as Game #2 than the Panthers.

So let's see where we are in a few weeks when we see the NFL schedule. In the here and now I see some games as easy wins (Texans, Saints, Titans, 49ers, Packers), some as tough challenges (Buccaneers, Falcons, Jaguars, Colts) and some as our usual grudge matches ('Boys, 'Skins, G-men). I like the Eagles schedule. I think this team could go 11-5 or so.

Off the subject: I was brousing through the books at Borders the other day and I came across Football Prospectus 2005. Published by the team at Baseball Prospectus, one of the my favorite web sites back when I was a Phillies blogger, the sabremetrics style of analysis was finally applied to football. I was intruiged by their findings and spent several minutes reading. Curious about what they said about the Birds I flipped to the Eagles section and caught this interesting tidbit...

Based on their '04 performance, Prospectus gave the percentages of where they expected the Birds to wind up in '05. There was an 80% chance the team would go 11-5 or better (or it was 12-4 or better, I forget exactly). There was a 1% chance the team would go 5-7 wins. 0% they would go 4-12 or worse. Absent remarkable comebacks in the Chargers and Chiefs games, this team would have been 4-12 in 2005.

That's scary stuff. I put a lot of faith in numbers and I am a big believer in sabremetrics still. The idea that the Eagles had a near-impossible collapse is scary. Will this team bounce back, or is this the prelude to a longer collapse? Food for thought.

I found this article on Yahoo! Sports the other day and I thought it was interesting stuff. Check it out:

He would rise every morning and descend to the basement where an office full of books, translations and lessons waited for Reggie White, his pursuit of knowledge and truth being as ferocious as his running down of quarterbacks.

White, the greatest pass rusher the NFL has ever known, is almost assured on Saturday to be voted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame's Class of 2006, just over 13 months since dying of arrhythmia at the age of 43. His expected enshrinement this August is sure to bring White back into the spotlight, flushing the public with memories of his dominating play on the field and his high-profile Christian preaching off of it. But it will also bring to a controversial light the striking conflict between that man and the one who found what he called his greatest victories down in that basement with his nose in an ancient book.

Ordained at 17, White earned the nickname "The Minister of Defense" in college, but he didn't believe in ministers in his final years. White, who used his considerable fame to preach the Bible, didn't believe in the Bible. White, who had his own church in Tennessee (one that was burned to the ground in a likely hate crime), didn't believe in churches. Oh, he was the same man who believed in living a most wholesome life, of respecting marriage, of respecting life, of a loving family, of being close to his God. He was, by all accounts, more faithful than ever. But in that basement office in his home in Charlotte, N.C., and in repeated trips to Israel, White found a new version of the truth that seemed to humble him, perhaps frighten him, and make him question everything he once thought and so thoroughly believed.

"Reggie was a person who stood on his beliefs," his widow Sara said. "He was a person that was always solid in what he said, that never backed down. What he believed, he said." But what Reggie White believed and said began to change after retiring in 2000. Ever an insatiable learner, he began to question what exactly his Bible was teaching him, how it was written and where it came from. So he poured himself into learning not just Hebrew, but how Hebrew was spoken at the time of Christ. He spent six, seven hours a day studying, and he studied so hard that he could eventually take the original Torah, which is what many believe is the original Word of God, and translate it for himself.

What he found changed everything. What he found, he believed, could change
everything.

Sara White marveled at her husband's passion for the truth. She had known Reggie since college and married him when she was just 21, yet he never ceased to amaze her. Here he was each morning, forsaking celebrity golf outings and easy speaking engagements, to spend hours and hours in solitude painstakingly translating Hebrew.
"He would come upstairs and say, 'Did you know, this, this and this?' " said Sara on Thursday, as the faint afternoon light peaked through the stained glass of the old Mariner's Church in downtown Detroit, where she conducted interviews for a forthcoming DVD about Reggie. "He would teach me what he learned. He found, first off, (that the) King James (Bible) was taken out of context, a lot. A lot of words were added. A lot of words were subtracted.

"He found that in the Torah, in Hebrew, things that may have been taken literal shouldn't have been. Some things that were idioms at that time, today people don't understand those idioms because they were their time. Just like in 40 years, people aren't going to understand our idioms. "(For example) 'I paid an arm and a leg for this shirt.' Guess what, in 40 years they are going to think I paid a literal arm and a literal leg for this shirt. What Reggie understood, and he taught us, is that you have to go back to the way they were living and understand their mindset."

Reggie meticulously translated each word and then put it in context. Sara says he found alarming inaccuracies. Some of it was lost in translations, Hebrew being translated into Greek and then being translated into another language. Some may have been just simple errors, the product of an era before moveable type. Some were not so honest, Reggie White believed. "And so, that was what he was getting to – there were so many mistakes in the translations," said Sara while her sister nodded in agreement. "That is why he was so doggone eager to (translate it himself)."

Each day brought new clarity, new opinions and more dismay that so much of what Reggie had once preached he no longer believed. He began to wonder if he had been used and lied to by ministers. He regretted using his fame to raise so much money for various churches he felt weren't true to God. He felt, he told NFL Films just four days before dying, "prostituted."

"Reggie felt like the churches had become polluted because they were following man's tradition instead of God," Sara said. "We felt like early on, (the) idea (of churches) was right, but then later on it was polluted because now, instead of going with what God was saying, they added to The Word. They added their opinions rather than just reading.

"Now we have preachers preaching their opinion which distorts The Word. It should be (called) opinion churches, or motivational speakers. For our family and for many people who was studying the Torah with us, it created a sense of excitement because now the things we felt uncomfortable (about) in church wasn't our imagination. It was we should have been uncomfortable.

"We should have been uncomfortable with some idols, with some idol worshipping, with people bowing down to the pastor, people putting the pastor on a pedestal." The change in the White home was dramatic. Reggie discarded all athletic awards that included a statue of a football player, since it was a false idol. His kids' Beanie Babies soon followed. The Whites had never celebrated Easter because it is not in the Bible (they observed Passover), but they have eliminated the celebration of Christmas, too. "We all knew the Messiah wasn't born on Christmas Day, December 25. We all knew that was just a representation to celebrate his life," Sara said. "But after we started reading how Christmas came about, with the pagan holiday of the sun solstice, then we stopped celebrating Christmas.

"What (they) were trying to do as a traditional church was satisfy the Christians and give them Christmas. When really, in fact, we are worshipping the solstice, the winter solstice; The Word says, 'Don't do it.' "

Perhaps no professional athlete had evangelized more often or more publicly than Reggie White. During his playing days, he preached at every opportunity. He mentored young players. He spoke out against sin. He even had a habit, after mowing over some opposing offensive lineman, to go back, help him up and say, "Jesus loves you."

When he left the Philadelphia Eagles as a free agent in 1993, he said God influenced his decision to sign with the Green Bay Packers, with whom he won a second Defensive Player of the Year award and a Super Bowl. It is at least some of White's trailblazing that allowed so many Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks to feel comfortable speaking about their faith in the run-up to Sunday's Super Bowl XL. For his entire career, White was the ultimate example of a Christian athlete. He was officially non-denominational, but to Evangelical Christians, he was one of them. "Reggie gave (people) permission to stand on their faith, whatever faith that was," Sara White said. "It's OK for a man to cry. It's OK for a man to pray. It's OK for a man to love his wife. It's OK for a man to say they are not going out on their wife – that it was OK to be moral and not be crazy. "He had changed the perspective of people of what a real man is."

Now, in death, Reggie stands at odds with many Christians. Sara says he even stopped calling himself Christian and preferred to be known as "Believer" after studying the Torah. He eschewed any organized religion, but he held on to most of his same convictions. Reggie's most controversial statement came in 1998 while addressing the Wisconsin Legislature. He declared, "Homosexuality is a decision, it's not a race. People from all different ethnic backgrounds live in this lifestyle. But people from all different ethnic backgrounds also are liars and cheaters and malicious and backstabbing."

There was a major furor. Sara says he never backed down from that stance. "Oh, no, no, no. That didn't change," she said. "Homosexuality wasn't changed. And let me just tell you about our Wisconsin legislators. They were not as bad as people reported them to be. The media tore that up.

"I believe God allowed that to happen to put some thick skin on Reggie because Reggie was hurt by it. Because he was there, he knew what he said, he knew how it was reported and he is very sensitive. But I think God allowed that to give him thicker skin for where he was going to go. Because where he was going to go was much deeper than that."

The thing that makes religion the ultimate hot-button issue is that almost no one wants to admit what they believe and what they've taught and been taught, or how they've taught or been taught, may be wrong. Throughout history, wars have routinely been fought over this.

And that is what makes Reggie White's journey fascinating to some and frightening to others. Here he was, once the most vocal of his kind, now saying he had been duped. The Bible thumper said the Bible was bunk. "Reggie was before his time," Sara said. "People were not ready for Reggie. Pastors were not ready for Reggie. "Pastors were intimidated by Reggie because Reggie knew the truth, and they knew that he knew the truth and they knew a little bit of the truth. But they said their congregation wasn't ready for the truth and they'd lose their congregation. "So what would that lead to? No money in the church."

James Brown, the Fox Sports broadcaster and a close friend of Reggie White, says the player had plans to build a movie studio to make wholesome, family-based shows. Brown said White dreamed of theme parks. Some of White's other friends claim he was planning to take his message big, that he was just getting started.
It isn't difficult to imagine White's Hall of Fame induction being the start of him proselytizing about a new belief, about all those hours in the basement office.
Sara White isn't so sure. Being wrong had scared Reggie like nothing else.
"He was so fearful because he had taught at a mass scale for so much of his life and he felt he wasn't preaching exactly what The Word said because it was polluted," she said. "But Reggie didn't know it was polluted. (I said) 'You were preaching from your heart, from God. This is what you knew.'

"He said he didn't want to take the chance. He wanted to study until he knew everything. I said, 'Reggie, you'll never know everything. But you know everything on this subject, you have been studying this. Just teach this. Teach one thing at a time.' "

But White wasn't ready. And his time ended before he ever was prepared.
Sara White understands some of these beliefs won't be popular. But she also says she and Reggie and so many others are correct. She trusts her late husband's translations. She trusts his faith. And her life is not wrapped up in it. She has children to raise and a career to run. Sara has started a company called "Power of 92" and is selling hats and other items on the website Reggie92.com, with proceeds to help former NFL players who don't receive much from the league pension. There is the work-in-progress DVD. Her son is also writing a book about his father.

She is busy. And now, after 13 tough months, Saturday should bring word that her husband is headed to Canton and a day for a long-awaited celebration. But she knows the spotlight is coming with it. Sara White is not sure what Reggie's old fans will think of what he came to believe before his death. But she isn't hiding it. She is excited that maybe some will question what they have been taught, question their religious institutions and perhaps dedicate themselves to learning Hebrew, the culture of the time and translating The Word themselves.

It is, she believes, one of the good things that can come out of the death of Reggie White. "God," she said with a slight, knowing nod, "had a plan."

I was fascinated to read about Reggie White's religious transformation. Like many people, I simply assumed he was a close-minded Bible Literalist and his statements to the Wisconsin legislature proved that. Reading the article I am impressed that he sought to understand his faith by translating the Torah from original Hebrew. I am impressed by those who seek the truth and question authority at every turn. I seems that Reggie was a seeker, an explorer willing to ask hard questions of his faith and seek an answer to the question of "Why?"

It is sad to see that this facet of his personality only came to light after he passed on. I think people should know that Reggie White wasn't simply an easy to caricaturere Bible Literalist: he was a seeker of truth, someone willing to challenge established orthodoxy. The parallel to Jesus himself, someone who vigorously challenged laws of a corrupt religious establishment in Jerusalem, is uncanny.

I hope that Reggie found the answers he was searching for in the afterlife.

Get ready for some outrage: the initial odds on Super Bowl XLI are out. The Colts, to my surprise, are the odds-on favorite to win at 4/1:

Indianapolis: 4/1
New England: 4/1
Seattle: 5/1
Pittsburgh: 6/1
Carolina: 6/1

Let's start by noting that the Steelers, Panthers and Pats are all good picks.

I'm not so sure about the Seahawks for historical reasons: they played a weak schedule in 2005 and the Super Bowl loser usually falls off dramatically the next year: the '05 Eagles went 6-10, and the '04 Panthers, the '03 Bucs, the '02 Rams, and the '01 Giants all went 7-9. Not a good pick.

I'm amazed that the Colts are the money pick to make it to XLI. Huh? They blew their game against the Steelers in spectacular fashion, Edgerin [sic] James wants out ... this team isn't that talented and it's got a lot of psychological baggage associated with it.

What catches me by surprise is the fact that the Eagles are tied for thirteenth, at 20/1. The fact that the oddsmakers put the Cowboys (10/1), the Giants (15/1), the Bears (15/1), and the Bengals (18/1) as better bets to win the Super Bowl is borderline outrageous. The 'Boys didn't make the playoffs and need help at QB. The G-men are badly overrated. The Bears? The very idea that the Bears are more talented than the Eagles is an insult. The Bengals? Their hopes rest squarely on Carson Palmer's knee. Good luck.

The Eagles tied with the Dolphins and Redskins for 13th. The notion that the Dolphins are just as good a pick for the Super Bowl as the Eagles is ridiculous: they don't have a QB, play in the same division as the Pats, etc. They need a lot of work before they become competitive. The 'Skins have a lot of issues too: can they move the ball without running? I don't think so.

I hope these sort of rankings provoke a lot of anger with the Eagles. Just one year removed from the Super Bowl and four consecutive division titles / NFC title games, this team has no respect whatsoever. Nobody believes in them. Nobody fears them. Everyone assumes that Donovan's best days are behind him and that the Birds are finished.

Bull----. Get angry people! Click here to read the rankings for yourself.

... on ESPN.com about the blown calls in the Super Bowl.

Today is the day after the Super Bowl and while Steelers fans are busy sleeping off their collective hangovers, the rest of the NFL can wake up with the fact that today is the first day of the offseason. Time to retool and rearm for 2006.

More later.

I watched McNabb's interview with ESPN about the 2005 season and T.O.'s meltdown with the team. I'm not surprised by the tone of Donovan's response: pleasant, upbeat, water-off-my-back kind of attitude. He's such a calm person and his nothing-bothers-me attitude has really given him the tools to survive in Philadelphia. Who else would have shrugged Draft Day booing off? Who else could have lasted as long through so much adversity like the team's 0-2 start in '03?

The racial component is obviously the big, thorny issue here: McNabb likened T.O.'s comments to being a "black-on-black" crime, and obviously is burned up that the NAACP tried to interject itself by criticizing him for not running more. I happen to agree with him: it is a stupid charge to level at him because he was obviously injured last year and has refined his game. Donovan ran a lot during the 2000 season because they didn't have any sort of a running game at all. Over time the team has come to rely more on Donovan's arm rather than his legs, so whatever he can do to preserve his health is a smart decision. Remember: Donovan was injured when he ran in '02 against the Cards and missed six games.

I thought one thing of interest was that McNabb believed that the rift between them started during the 2004 season against the Giants when McNabb barked at T.O. to get back into the huddle after an incomplete pass and then spread onward. The idea that the rift began in '04 supports the idea that the addition of T.O. killed the team's chemistry from the start, and that the team was talented enough on its own to make the Super Bowl in 2004. The team won, in short, despite T.O., not because of him.

The clearest thing from Donovan's interview is the fact that the team needs an overhaul and that there are big problems out there. Key players on the team- Jevon Kearse, Jeremiah Trotter -lobbied for T.O. These guys can't be gotten rid of or replaced. The possibility that the team will remain divided well into 2006 and beyond is a definate possibility. Donovan needs to take control of the team again.

If he doesn't then the ghost of T.O. will haunt this team forever.

Possibly according to the AP. Personally I'd love it if it were true. Consider:

1. The Broncos are an AFC team and we won't see them again until 2009.

2. Mike Shanahan is desperate enough to win he might sign T.O. to a long-term deal, thus avoiding the "rent T.O." scenario where we'd see him poppoing up each year, a mercenary-for-hire trying to mess with the Eagles.

I tend to think this might happen, but the Cowboys option is still more likely. Stay tuned.

Most Eagles fans remember the sight of the Eagles WRs getting man-handled in the '03 NFC title game against Carolina, brutalized each time they tried to make something happen with the ball. Without a viable target to throw to, McNabb went 10-for-22, 100 yards and 3 picks.

The game made a tremendous impact on the Eagles high command. In the offseason they pursued T.O. and brought him on-board. From a team reluctant to spend or acquire high-profile free agents, the move really sent shockwaves around the NFL. The signing of Jevon Kearse, the biggest move made by any NFL team that off-season otherwise, went almost entirely unnoticed.
T.O. had a big impact on the production from the Eagles WR corps. Scope out the numbers:

2003 / 2004 / 2005
Rec.: 127 / 155 / 161
Yards: 1,728 / 2,460 / 2,250
TDs: 5 / 17 / 12
Avg.: 13.61 / 15.87 / 13.97

Simply put, the impact of T.O. on the Eagles offense was tremendous in 2004. The Eagles WRs were gaining nearly two yards a catch extra, added almost fifty yards a game, and more than tripled their number of touchdowns. While the numbers for 2005 don't seem quite as bad, I should note that T.O. was on-pace for a monster season prior to his suspension: he actually led all Eagles WRs in yards despite playing in just 7 of 16 games, had just one fewer catch than Greg Lewis (48 to 47) and scored half of the Eagles WR's TDs (6). Without T.O., the Eagles WRs drop to just 114 catches, 1,487 yards, 6 TDs and just 13.04 yards-per-catch.

None of this augers well for 2006, when the Eagles will be without T.O. again. Will the Eagles go back to the stone-handed, easily intimidated crew that gave McNabb few options to work with during his first few years?

Here are the Eagles 2006 WRs:

Reggie Brown. The Eagles second-rounder out of Georgia had a decent rookie season in 2005: 43 catches, 571 yards and 4 TDs, 13.28 avg. The Eagles brass have said that they intend for Reggie to be T.O.'s successor as the Eagles No. 1 wideout, and the future is now in 2006. Interestingly, Reggie really seemed to have stepped up after T.O. was suspended from the team: prior to T.O.'s suspension: 9 catches, 108 yards, 0 TD; post-suspension: 34 catches, 461 yards, 4 TD's. Impressive.

I'm personally not sold on the idea that Reggie can take over for T.O. as No. 1. For one thing, he's a good thirty pounds lighter than T.O. Reggie seems more like Greg Lewis or Todd Pinkston in terms of his body type. Reggie could be a decent No. 1 (and certainly his performance after T.O. suggests he'll do well, especially considering the fact that the team was playing without its big guns left), but he strikes me as a classic No. 2 wideout.

Prediction for 2006: 55 catches, 800 yards, 6-10 TDs.

Greg Lewis. I think Greg Lewis has a lot of talent and I'm intruiged to see what he'll do in 2006 with the Birds. The undrafted wideout from Illinois has performed well for the team, but he's clearly not a top-flight, No. 1 wideout. He's nearly 45 lbs lighter than T.O. and doesn't have the burning speed of Todd Pinkston. He's a terrific, No. 3, slot-reciever type. A definate upgrade over Freddie Mitchell as the No. 3 wideout.

2006 Prediction: 45 catches, 600 yards, 4-6 TDs.





Billy McMullen. I think it is time to pull the plug on the Billy McMullen project. The Eagles third round pick in the '03 draft out of Virginia has the physical tools to be a No. 1 wideout. He's 6 foot four, 215 lbs (T.O.: six foot three, 226 lbs). If he could make it work, he'd be a real monster, however nothing seems to work with Billy. He's caught a grand total of 22 passes in his career and 18 were this year. He doesn't run routes well and doesn't use his body to create opportunities. Even without T.O., I can't see the Eagles wasting roster space on a failed project.

Good luck, Billy.

2006 Prediction: 5 catches, less than 100 yards, 0 TDs.

Todd Pinkston. I'm not sure what to think about Todd. Is he a good No. 2 for this team? Or is he a third or fourth wideout, a backup unworthy of starting? Todd didn't play in '05 thanks to his injury. His numbers for 2004, where he played opposite T.O., are so-so: 36 catches, 676 yards and one TD. Pinkston's 18.8 yards per catch are impressive, but he should have had more catches and many more TD's with T.O. drawing double-teams on the other side of the field.

Bottom-line is that Todd isn't a physical, bruising wideout: he's nearly fifty lbs lighter than T.O. He's the deep threat the Eagles want out there to stretch the field. (He had six catches of 46+ yards in 2004, including an eighty-yarder against the Redskins.) He's a great No. 2 to have on the field, but he's just not a No. 1 wideout. In fact, he's less of a 1 than Reggie or Greg. With both of them ahead in the depth chart, I don't see Todd having much of a season in 2006.

2006 Prediction: 30 catches, 500 yards, 3-5 TDs.

Those are the Birds top four WRs for 2006. I personally expect to see them add another WR in the draft and maybe make a run at a free agent like the Colts Reggie Wayne in the offseason. More likely than not, I see the Eagles standing pat and going with Greg, Reggie and Todd for 2006. I see Darnerien McCants as the No. 5 with a rookie the Birds pick up in free agency as the No. 4.

So how does the Eagles WR Corps stack up? Without T.O. this crew is badly lacking. T.O. was a tremendous talent who elevated everyone's game. Donovan was musing during the season that he was disappointed by T.O.'s departure because he felt they could re-write the record books together. Certainly, T.O. and Donovan were the greatest QB-WR duo since Jaws and Carmichael. T.O. might be the greatest WR to play for the Birds ever. I think Tommy McDonald and Harold Carmichael are the only others to lay claim to that title. I think T.O. and Donovan were primed for a monster season in '05: I felt Donovan was going to throw for 4,000 yards and at least 35 TDs, and T.O. was going to hit for 110 catches, 1,500 yards and 15-18 TDs.

No disrespect Seahawks fans, but the Eagles offense was the best in the NFC. If Donovan had stayed healthy and it T.O. hadn't had his falling out with Donovan, I think we'd be watching this team play this weekend against the Steelers.

What do I think of the '06 squad. It's talented, to be sure. I think Reggie Brown is going to be around for a long, long time. I think Greg Lewis could have a breakout season. I think that this group will be better than the WR Corps from '00 - '03. But the explosiveness that the Eagles had with T.O. is gone. The Eagles will be dangerous in '06, but they won't be as deadly as they could be.

Next: The Eagles DBs.

...again. Ever.

I'm stunned by how thoroughly the Seahawks dominated the Panthers. The game wasn't even close. Jake Delhomme played terrible football and the Panthers defense looked absolutely befuddled with how to deal with the Seahawks running game. I was a major skeptic about them coming into the playoffs, but now the Seahawks have made me a believer.

I'm less stunned by the Steelers victory over the Broncos. Jake Plummer made terrible decisions when the game was put on his shoulders and Mike Shannahan had obviously forgotten to look at game film from the previous week, when the Steelers caught the Colts by surprise and marched down the field by the pass. It was a dominating performance from the men of steel.

My preliminary feeling about the Super Bowl is that it is close, but I'd give a slight edge to the Steelers.

Anyway, I'm back on the Iggles beat. I am working on a few pieces about the Eagles position-by-position, as well as their schedule. 'Til then, I'll be hanging out in Wingheads.

E-A-G-L-E-S-EAGLES!

... it also means you are wrong 75% of the time.

I was 1-for-4 in my divisional round predictions after going 3-for-4 in the wildcard (honest!). I'll try better this time around.

AFC: There are striking statistical similarities between the quality of the Steelers and Broncos D. The Broncos and Steelers both allowed 258 points this season (16.1 PPG), third best in the NFL after the Colts and Bears. Both teams allowed roughly the same number of rushing yards too. Denver: 1,363; Pittsburgh: 1,368. Both teams scored roughly the same number of points too. (Denver: 395, Pittsburgh: 389)

These are similar teams: they both like to run, have their QBs make high-percentage throws and stifle the opposition with their defense. I like the Broncos in this game for the sole reason that they are at home and I think they are a little deeper than the Stillers. The Steelers are a terrible 1-4 in the AFC title game under Cowher, but all of those games were at home, so this is unfamiliar territory for the Stillers and they seem to have momentum. Still, I like the Broncos. They are better coached and they are hungry. Denver 31, Pittsburgh 24. Close one though.

NFC: I don't like the Seahawks. I just don't. This team built its record on wins against fluff teams and they don't have the toughness to win. They are an offense-oriented team and they are too soft to make this work.

I love the Panthers. They won some tough games in 2005: Patriots, Falcons (twice), Vikings and Bucs (twice). They won on a tough schedule in '05 and I think that's the difference. They've been there before (winning the '03 NFC title against the Eagles and narrowly losing the Super Bowl to the Pats), they are hungry and they are well-coached. I don't think this will be much of a game. Carolina 24, Seattle 7.

Let's see if I'm right...

I'm embarrassed that I forgot to post my wildcard round predictions last week. I always love to pontificate, so I am disappointed that I didn't give my two cents. I would have called 3 out of 4 games: I was wrong about the Redskins and Bucs, but that would have been it.

Alright, here is Round 2 ....

Carolina vs. Chicago. What do I like about Carolina? Their balance. Eighth in the NFL in scoring offense at 24.4 PPG. Fifth in scoring defense, 16.3 PPG. They play good defense and score points. I love the Bears D: 12.6 PPG is first in the NFL (2nd in yards allowed too). But I hate their offense. Sure they'll play better with Grossman, but this team was 29th in yardage and 26th in scoring. I think Carolina will stymie the Bears all game long and score a few points to win it. Call it 20-10 Panthers.

Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh. I'm sorely tempted to go with the Steelers. I am. They gave the Colts offense fits when they played back in the regular season and generally hung tough with the Colts. But I think that the Colts are too prepared and too rested to be taken. They'll be strong out of the gate and force the Steelers to play catch-up. I just don't see Manning being denied in his quest to face-off with his arch-nemesis, Tom Brady. Call it 28-24 Colts.

Washington vs. Seattle. I look at the Seahawks and I can't say I'm impressed. Sure they went 6-0 against their division. Their division foes were a collective 15-33 this year. (9-27 against non-division foes.) They only played four games against playoff teams and went 1-2 (their 28-13 win against the Colts doesn't count.) Their sole win came against the New York Giants team that choked in a big way in the clutch. Plus they've already lost to the 'Skins.

Sure, the Redskins offense looked terrible against the Bucs. But the Bucs had the NFL's stingiest defense (in terms of yardage), and the Seahawks are 16th. They'll move the ball. Portis will have a big, big day and keep the ball out of the hands of Matt Hasselback and Shaun Alexander. Call it Redskins 24, Seattle 17.

New England vs. Denver. The marquee matchup this weekend. The Broncos are the NFL's forgotten team. Quietly they had a great year, got a first round bye and are a game from the AFC title game. They've got balance, they've got talent ... But I'm going with the Patriots. The bottom-line is that the smart money should be on Denver. They were third in scoring defense (16.1) and seventh in scoring offense (24.7). The Pats are still a good offensive team (tenth in ponts, seventh in yards), but they look suspect on defense. Hard to believe they are 17th in scoring defense and 26th in yardage. In fact they are 31st (31st!!!) in passing yards allowed. If Jake Plummer ever wanted to make a statement, here it is.

But I'm going with the Pats. I think they are savvy enough to exploit weaknesses in the Broncos D and get things done. Plus, Brady is the best QB in the playoffs. Call it New England 34, Denver 31.

Thoughts?

Apparently Drew Rosenhaus has decided to ask for permission to seek a trade for his client, something that won't happen because teams know that the Eagles are planning on cutting T.O. loose this spring to save cap money. I suppose all that the annoucement means is that the wheels to take T.O. somewhere else are in motion.

Where will T.O. end up? I have a few theories.

Oakland Raiders. That would be the perfect place for T.O. Al Davis would love having the NFL's two best wideouts and two most disruptive personalities in his stadium. Just win baby! It would be just what the Raiders need to get back into the playoffs and make a run at the Super Bowl. Sadly, I don't think it will happen because T.O. and Moss' egos are too big to exist on one team. Chance: 5%

Houston Texans. I think the Texans are desperate enough to think it over. Imagine Reggie Bush and T.O. giving David Carr some weapons to wield. I think the Texans might be willing to risk a long-term contract as a way to entice T.O. to play for them. Chance: 5%

Baltimore Ravens. Again, I think that the Birds of Baltimore could be enticed to sign T.O. Billick just had a terrible year, their offense is still unable to master the concept of the forward pass (22nd in the NFL is passing yards) and their offense is sputtering with Jamal Lewis' decline. Billick might think that T.O. is an acceptable risk to help Kyle Boller and to save his own skin. The bad blood between T.O. and Ozzie Newsome might preclude such a deal, but this would be a good fit for T.O. Chance: 5%

Tampa Bay Bucs. A decent chance of T.O. coming to Tampa. They clearly need the threat to stretch the field for Williams and give Chris Simms a top-flight target to throw at. He'd really be perfect for them, except for Gruden's memories of dealing with MeShawn might make this a non-starter. Still, this is the second most likely chance. Chance: 10%

Dallas Cowboys. C'mon, this is where we know T.O. is heading to. Jerry Jones can't resist the idea of adding T.O. to his team to give him the edge in the divisional matchups and to spit in the Eagles collective eye. He may be a dumb loudmouth, but I bet Jerry Jones thinks that a one-year, Rent-T.O. deal will give him so flexibility to cast T.O. off when things go bad and that the Big Tuna can keep him in line. The prospect of the NFL's best wideout playing against the team he hates twice a year is too tantilizing a prospect for Jerry to pass up. 81 will be a Cowboy in '06. Chance: 75%

I don't see T.O. in some places, e.g., New England, Pittsburgh, Indy because some coaches won't put a poisonous influence like T.O. in their lockerooms. Other teams like Denver, or the Giants, might be tempted, but they already have wideouts they won't cast loose.

Thoughts?

First of all, allow me to re-introduce myself. My name is Michael Berquist, and I am an Eagles fan.

I created the Bird Blog in the Spring of 2004 during the heady days of Kearse, T.O., and the promise of the Super Bowl as an outlet for the prodigious enthusiasm for the team. With the baseball season starting, I created a blog for the Phillies in the interim and proceeded to pour my energies into it, allowing The Bird Blog to fall by the wayside. Even though the Birds went to Super Bowl, I retired the Bird Blog in December while the team had a 9-1 record. I kept my Phillies blog, A Citizen's Blog, going for another year. I never thought that I'd be back blogging.

But here I am.

Why did I quit blogging? I quit A Citizen's Blog back in August because I was fairly burned out from work, moving into a new house, and the frustration of watching the Phillies flail away at the playoffs. I couldn't keep breaking down stats and pouring over information in an effort to understand the game because my heart simply wasn't in it anymore. I finally quit because I had ceased to care about the game.

So why am I back? I have an incurable love of football and letting people know what my opinion is. I love the Eagles too.* This season was painful to watch: the team basically disintegrated and fell apart, just one year removed from nearly winning the Super Bowl.

I think that they'll be back in '06 stronger than ever. I think they'll make a good run for the Super Bowl again, and I want to chronicle that journey for you all.

So stay tuned, I'll post as often as I can...

* I root for the Eagles, but I live in Pittsburgh. Why? I grew up in Downingtown, a suburb about thirty miles west in Chester County, but I went west for college in '95. I graduated from Pitt in '99, went to law school in Pittsburgh, graduated and got married. Right now I live in the south hills of Pittsburgh and I work downtown as an attorney. My wife is from the Steel City so we live here.

I have nothing against the Steelers, I root for them, but my favorite team is still the Eagles. People leave, travel far and wide, and keep their allegiances to their home teams. (By the way, I've always found Steelers fans to be pretty cool about Eagles fans living in their midst.) I live in a place where the loyalty to the home team runs deep, but I can't go against my roots. I'm an Eagles fan.

No big surprise here, that Brad Childress would be moving on. He's been the Eagles offensive coordinator for a while and built up a strong unit here. I'm honestly surprised that nobody lured him away last year after the Super Bowl.

I wish him good luck: he's going to need it in the Norseland. Culpepper is damaged goods (both athletically and ethically), and there is a lot of bad karma there. On the plus side, this is a division that the Vikings can win easily: the Lions are a mess, the Bears are one-dimensional, and the Packers are rebuilding. If Childress can cut Culpepper loose smoothly and bring a few people on-board, this team is poised to win the NFC North in '06.

I think the Eagles won't have too much problem replacing him, given that Andy Reid is so involved in the offense. I hope the team will pick someone willing to emphasize the run a little.

Nice article from Sal Paolantonio about the Eagles 2005 woes.

-Paolantonio’s chief point is that the Eagles D-line was the crux of the problem: without a line getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the defensive secondary was left exposed trying to cover guys like Plaxico Burress, Santana Moss and Randy Moss all game long. Bottom-line: we need help on the D-line pretty bad. I’d assume that the Eagles will look for a D-lineman in the draft, or in free agency.

-Paolantionio blasts Mike McMahon for his play, but in McMahon’s defense he’s caught managing an offense with a leaking line and with two of its big guns (T.O. & Westbrook) gone. It’s a hard road to travel.

(I should note in the interest of full disclosure that one of my friends knows Mike, so I have some sympathy for the guy…)

-I don’t buy Paolantionio’s criticism of the way the Eagles handled the T.O. mess. They gave him the benefit of the doubt, but I don’t think anyone could have anticipated that he’d turn out to be the Attila the Team Unity Killer. I don’t see how they could have dealt with that mess any better than they did: they refused to negotiate when he tried to hold the team hostage, tried to allow him to get in the team’s good graces and cut their losses when he turned into a cancer.

-Should Andy Reid step down as VP? Sure. Hard to argue with what happened with Mike Holmgren in Seattle when he stepped down. Rebuilding the team and honing all of the new talent the team is going to have is going to take a full-time coach in ’06.

More later on.

Everyone will notice some changes to the site in the coming days. I’m going to try to expand the blogroll and add some more information links. Stay tuned.

I'm pleased to announce that the Bird Blog will be resurrected sometime within the next month.

Stay tuned.

This will be my final post in The Bird Blog. I began this project back in the early spring of 2004 and I had a lot of fun blogging the Eagles. However, I have recently realized that I wasn’t putting in the required time and energy to make The Bird Blog work. I’m beginning my legal career and running A Citizen’s Blog and both of those tasks take up 110% of my day. I’ll comment from time-to-time on the Eagles at A Citizen’s Blog, but don’t count on seeing any more content on these pages ever again.

So this is goodbye. It’s been fun, but all good things must come to an end …

While Sunday’s 28-6 victory over the Redskins was hardly the most dominating performance we’ve seen this season from the Eagles, it was a good one. McNabb threw four touchdown passes and 222 yards, Pinkston had a big game (5 catches, 105 yards), and the Eagles rushing defense turned in a sterling effort: allowing just 51 yards on 23 carries (2.2 yards a carry). Sure it was only 7-6 at the half, but the Eagles allowed just 213 net yards and moved the ball with authority in the second half. What’s not to love?

Entering the game I figured that the Eagles would win, but I was nervous: the Redskins were getting 115 yards a game on the ground and the Eagles were surrendering 124. I expected to see Clinton Portis running wild through the Eagles secondary, eating up 10, 15 yard chunks at a time. To my surprise, Portis was a non-factor: 37 yards on just 17 carries (and 7 of those carries were in the first quarter). The decision to put Jeremiah Trotter in at middle linebacker was the right call: he was stout against the run and turned in a dominating performance.

So the Eagles are 9-1 and flying high with two wins against division foes since the Steelers debacle on the 7th. Time to start looking ahead:

-A win Sunday against the Giants gives the Eagles the division title and would make them the first team to clinch a playoff berth. How?

• A victory would run the Eagles record to 10-1, while Dallas and Washington can’t do better than 9-7. (In any case, the loser of the Thanksgiving Day game will be eliminated from the division hunt because that team can’t do better than 8-8.)
• And if the Eagles win Sunday they’ll drop the Giants to record to 5-6. Even if the Eagles lose their last five games and the Giants win all five, the Eagles would own the tie-breaker.

How incredible is that? Playoff berth on November 28th …

The Eagles current run is amazing to behold. This team is already a quasi-dynasty: three (and almost certainly four) consecutive division titles, four (and almost certainly five) consecutive playoff births, two (and possibly three) consecutive times with the best record in the conference. All that’s missing is a trip to the Super Bowl.

If the playoffs were to start today, the NFC would look like this:

1. Eagles
2. Falcons
3. Packers
4. Seahawks
5. Vikings
6. St. Louis

The Eagles would probably see the Vikings in the divisional round and the Falcons in the NFC title game. I think the Eagles can win both.

-The Eagles are going to start encountering resistance: the Giants won’t lay down without a fight and Shockey and Tiki Barber always seem to play well against the Eagles. Sunday won’t be a cakewalk. In fact, I’m going to bum everyone out and predict a 31-24 Giants victory. Sorry: I’m a pessimist about this one.

After that the Eagles get a hard game against the Packers (ugh), gimmie games against the Redskins and Cowboys, a Monday Nighter against the increasingly weak-looking Rams, and they finish the season by feasting on the Bengals. I think the Eagles will go 4-2 in the last six (wins: Bengals, Rams, Cowboys, Redskins; losses: Packers & Giants) and finish a franchise-best 13-3. They’ll win the conference title over the Falcons as well.

-What a terrific playoff race in the AFC: seven teams are 7-3 or better. Seven! 11-5 might not be enough to make the playoffs over there … the Steelers looked a little shaky against the Bengals. 19-14 against those guys? They should have wiped the floor with them and I’m surprised they didn’t. Roethlisberger didn’t look so hot either: only 138 yards. He was 15 of 20, but he got sacked 7 times and often looked confused and unsure of himself in the pocket. My father-in-law grumbled that the Steelers were peaking too soon and I think he’s right: Big Ben might start playing like a rookie.

-Unfortunately for the Steelers, they play a tough schedule down the stretch: Jaguars, Jets, Giants, Ravens and the resurgent Bills. Aside from next Sunday’s gimmie game against the Redskins, I don’t think they have an easy game for the rest of the year. I think the Steelers will finish 12-4. The Ravens could still catch them for the division, although that isn’t bloody likely.

-I’ve got a feeling about the Jets these days. They are playing stingy D (just 4 more points allowed than the Steelers, 25 more than the vaunted Ravens), move the ball even with Quincy Carter and have a smart coaching staff (don’t let the clock-management in the Ravens game fool you). Everyone is focusing on the Colts, Steelers and Pats in the AFC, but I think that these guys could stun everyone and be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. I don’t think they have a shot at the division (the Pats have an easy schedule the rest of the way: they’ll go 14-2 this year again), but they could be dangerous.

-If I were to predict the playoffs today, it would be:

NFC
1. Eagles
2. Falcons
3. Packers
4. Rams
5. Vikings
6. Seahawks

Packers over Seahawks; Vikings over Rams
Eagles over Vikings, Falcons over Packers
Eagles over Falcons

AFC
1. Patriots
2. Steelers
3. Colts
4. Denver
5. Jets
6. Ravens

Ravens over Colts (gasp! – Yes. Upset); Jets over Broncos
Patriots over Ravens; Jets over Steelers
Patriots over Jets

Super Bowl:
Eagles over Patriots

-A word about the MNF sketch last Monday … [climbing onto my soap box] I was stunned to see the media outcry last week over the sketch. It happened after nine o’clock in the evening, thus taking it outside of the so-called “family hour”. No nudity was shown. And if the NFL wants to get serious about making their product more family friendly, then they should have the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders show a little less T&A.

Who cares?

And yet the air waves were saturated by people screaming and crying about the sketch. It was racist, Tony Dungy said, thus removing any respect I ever had for the Colts coach. It was inappropriate, whined Michael Powell and the FCC. You couldn’t turn-on the TV without hearing someone wail and complain.

So what’s wrong with all of this? I think the problem is that we are living in the Age of the Old Fogie (and the Young Fogie): people so aggrieved by the changing world around them that they whine, bitch and complain about everything. I think the success of the talk-show industry feeds into this: people sit in front of their TVs for hours at a time being spoon-fed stories over-sensationalized and blown out of proportion by the media. Sit down for one evening and slog through Fox News’ evening fare and prepare to be out-raged, stoked to a fury about the world around you. Secular humanists are controlling the schools, Europeans (the French) are helping the terrorists, and gays want to destroy your values.

Guess what? It’s not true. Take a deep breath and repeat after me:

The world is not going to hell.

The world is not going to hell.

The world is not going to hell.

Everything in this country is fine. True, the world is changing and that is scary stuff. But then in American history people have always been terrified by change: Benjamin Franklin complained that German immigrants were ruining post-Revolution America with their language and their culture. 19th Century nativists (many descendants of the Germans Franklin distrusted) believed that Irish immigrants were a criminal rabble. In this century we’ve seen people scream and holler about the Japanese “buying” America, complaints that look ridiculous fifteen years later. Now it looks like Near Eastern immigrants are the latest villain. In thirty years we'll be worrying about some new threat to our identity.

People talk a lot about values these days, but “values” mean different things to different people. I would point out that tolerance for others has always been a value my parents have tried to instill in me. Values don’t begin and end with “Thou shalt not…” Values are how you treat people and how you behave towards your fellow man. Judged by that standard, the problems with America don’t lay with the secular humanists.

I blame the media. I think this mess is because the media is sloppy: they don’t like reporting boring facts and information. They want to get people to tune in and terrifying them or angering them is the best, most efficient, means of doing so. Why report on international news like elections in Japan when you can piss people off by giving them This Week’s Outrage?

Remember the infamous California pledge of allegiance case? I was struck, watching Fox News’ coverage of the case ,by how utterly devoid of content their discussion was: not a word about the legal rationale behind the decision. Disagree with it, fine, but do your viewers a service by explaining to them WHY the court ruled as it did. If the media's job is to inform people about the case they failed miserably. (I always snort as Fox News’ “We Report, You Decide” slogan: I doubt any news channel does more lecturing to its audience than Fox News.) No content: Sean Hannity engaged in a little martyrdom for sixty overwrought minutes and people who watched got to have their blood boil (too much to expect Fox News to inform its viewers, I suppose) … Cal Thomas later that week made the ludicrous claim that the pledge case represented a worse blow to America than 9/11.

Worse than 9/11? Give me a f---ing break.

The bottom-line is that people need to take a deep breath and calm down. Put things in perspective. Nicolette Sheridan dropped her towel. You couldn’t see anything. You don’t like it, change the channel. Worried about your twelve year-old son? Don’t have him watch pro football. (Stick to college football: the cheerleaders are much more covered up.) Calm down. Quit whining.

Off the soap-box ... More after thanksgiving, ya’ll!

The most awful moment I can remember as an Eagles fan was Week 3 of the 1997 season, when the Eagles fell behind 21-20 to the Cowboys in Big D, rallied and botched the game-winning field goal. I stayed up until 1AM to watch the game and I was so crushed by the Eagles loss I skipped classes in the morning. Awful. Awful. Awful.

Tonight has a chance to be something great for the Eagles. They open the first of three games against division rivals. If the Eagles win them all, they'll emerge 10-1 and sitting in the driver's seat.

-An Eagles victory would drop the Cowboys to 3-6, along with the Redskins. I think it is a safe bet that the Eagles win will 11 games, so tonight could essentially eliminate the Cowboys and Redskins from the playoff hunt.

-As for the Giants, I try not to take pleasure in the pain of others, but consecutive losses to the Bears and Cardinals? That's laughable. The bad news for the Giants is that they could finish the season 7-9: they have to play games against the Eagles, the Ravens, the Steelers, and the Falcons. After pounding on muffins during their four game winning streak, these guys are in trouble. I don't think they stand a chance.

-Meanwhile, the conference battle heats up ... the Seahawks, Rams, Packers and Vikings are all at 5-4 and they collectively have the look of seeds 3-6 for the playoffs. I don't think any of them could catch up. I think the race for homefield advantage is between the Falcons and the Eagles. This season has been a march towards the inevitable battle between these two teams, between these two quarterbacks, in the NFC title game.

-As for tonight: call it Eagles 31, Cowboys 14. And Bill Parcells will call his team "stupid" six or seven times on Tuesday morning.

Bill Lyon at the Inquirer has some disturbing thoughts about the Eagles downward slide this season.

Good news: in the Reid era the Eagles are 15-2 after a loss.

Bad news: the Eagles have converted 4 of their last 29 third downs.

This team should beat the Cowboys, but make no mistake about it: this game might decide the Eagles season.

The always insightful Gregg Easterbrook chimes in with some thoughts on the Eagles-Steelers game over at Tuesday Morning Quarterback.

I watched the Eagles - Steelers game yesterday. A few thoughts:

-The Eagles need to do something about the running game. They generated next to no yards on the ground and got throughly dominated by the Steelers ground game. They can't go on relying on McNabb's arm to keep them moving. This team has to get another back in the draft or via free agency in the offseason.

-I wasn't overly distraught by the Eagles loss. It was a non-conference game on the road. They were due for a let-down, so it was better to lose this game than next Monday Night against the 'Boys.

-Speaking of which ... I thought that the Monday Nighter next week would probably be the most important game of the year for the Eagles and I think that is holding true: a win would put them back on track at 8-1 and basically eliminate the Cowboys from the playoffs.

-This stretch of three games could make or break the Eagles season: if they win all three they'll emerge 10-1 and virtually assure them of the conference title. Victories against the Cowboys, Redskins and Giants would sew up the division (it would be mathematically impossible for the Cowboys and Redskins to catch up, and the Giants look to be fading) and give the Eagles a huge edge in the conference race. These games will make or break the Eagles season.

Monday Night, baby!

Week 7: 8-6
Season-to-date: 48-22

Week 8 Predictions:
Arizona over Buffalo; Big game for Larry Fitzgerald, the All-World wideout from Pitt (alma mater!). The Cards are looking respectable ... what's up with that?
Green Bay over Washington; the Redskins playoff hopes will likely be dealt a fatal blow with a Packers win to even their record at 4-4. The Redskins should be five games behind the Eagles and essentially finished after Week Eight. Another coaching move from Daniel Snyder?
Tennessee over Cincinnati; ugh. What happened? These have to be the two most disappointing teams in the NFL.

• Indianapolis over Kansas City; rematch of last year's offensive showdown will be won again by the Colts. I have no idea how the Chiefs laid the smack-down on the Falcons, but the Colts are too tough. They actually can play defense. Chiefs are outmatched.
• Minnesota over New York Giants; big victory for the Vikings. This game will essentially make the NFC playoff chase a two-horse race for the two slot between the Vikes and Eagles and the rest of the pack sturggling to catch up. Vikings are too explosive for the surprising Giants, who are starting to play more like the sub-.500 team they are.
• Jacksonville over Houston; the battle of the surprising teams in the AFC South ... I like the Jags because of Byron Leftwich. Sean Salisbury was right: he's got "it", that special quality a top-flight player has. I like David Carr too, but Leftwich is something special. Slight edge to the Jags, but the Texans could make the playoff race interesting with a victory.

Cowboys over Lions; Gotta go with the 'Boys. They are playing a little better than the Redskins right now. A mild upset here.
Carolina over Seattle; Losing to Arizona? Ouch! The Seahawks look like they've given up faster than the Iraqi Army in the Gulf War I.
Broncos over Falcons; Nothing says "pretender" like getting annihalated 56-10 to a 1-4 team.
Chargers over Raiders; Chargers I guess. I'm surprised that the Chargers are playing so well ... I am not surprised to see the Raiders sucking wind.
49ers over Bears; ugh, someone has to win it ... the less said the better. Quick prediction: Mike Holmgren will coach the 49ers next year. It was the job he was born to have.

Game of the Week:

• Patriots over Steelers; these two teams have a combined record of 11-1 going into this game. I'm tempted to pick the Steelers just assuming that the Patriots will eventually have to lose, but it won't be this week. Tom Brady & Co., will out-play Big Ben and win a close one here at Heinz Field. The Steelers are good, but the Patriots are too cohesive and they'll be prepared to take on a rookie QB.

New York Jets over Dolphins; I'm sure that the NFL thought this would be a decent game when they scheduled it. Whoops. Jets in a blow-out. They are clearly the better team.

Eagles 24, Ravens 3; I bet the Ravens will be held under 200 yards of offense. They honestly might be better off going with the wishbone or something because they look utterly incapable of throwing the ball downfield.

And then there were two…

The Eagles survived the Browns 34-31 in OT to stay alive as one of the NFL’s two unbeaten teams. “Survived” is the best word for the Bird triumph because the team had a lot of flaws that were exposed in the game and their victory was not a sure thing. A few thoughts:

-The Steelers have the luck / misfortune to face both of the NFL’s undefeated teams in the coming weeks: Halloween brings the Patriots to Heinz Field, followed by the Eagles, provided they defeat the Ravens. Crisis or opportunity? The Steelers could make their season and gain valuable momentum by beating both teams.

Or they could suffer two tremendous losses. Either way, the next two weeks are critical to the Steelers season.

-Well, who thought that the Eagles would be 6-0? Few, I bet. This is the Eagles best start under Andy Reid (note: the Eagles have lost the previous three season-openers under Reid, to the Rams in ’01: 20-17, to the Titans in ’02: 27-24, and to the Buccaneers in ’03: 17-0). This means, coupled with the Giants 28-13 loss to the Lions, that the Eagles hold a two game lead on the Giants and a four game lead on the Cowboys and Redskins. The division race is hardly over, but if the Eagles go into the Monday Night game against the Cowboys 7-1 then that stretch of games, where they play the Cowboys, Redskins and Giants, should essentially clinch the division for them.

As long as the Eagles go 7-3 down the stretch they will finish with a 13-3 record, the best in the franchise’s history: Reid has finished 12-4 twice, and the Eagles went 12-4 under Dick Vermeil in 1980, when they last reached the Super Bowl. 13-3 (or 14-2) would be new territory for this team.

Oh, I stated the other day on Wingheads that the Eagles had never gone 6-0 before and someone was kind enough to point out the inaccuracy: the Eagles went 6-0 in 1981, before losing 35-23 to the Minnesota Vikings. The Eagles went on to go 4-6 and lose to the New York Giants in the wildcard round. This team will face adversity. Let’s hope they respond better than the ’81 team did.

-Was it me, or did the Eagles offense function better with Dorsey Levens in the backfield? Levens came up with some big runs between the tackles in the fourth quarter after Westbrook left the game.

-I’d complain that T.O. only had four catches if it weren’t for the fact that two were for TD’s and McNabb spread the ball around well: ten Eagles caught passes in the game.

-That roughing the passer call on Brian Dawkins was ridiculous: he barely touched Garcia, and there was no head-to-head motion or shoving on Dawkins part. The ref who called that should be ashamed and disciplined because it nearly cost the Eagles the game.

-The rushing defense turned in a sub-par effort out there. I thought Green and Suggs were going to run right through them, but they toughened up late and held them in check. Still, it was a pretty discouraging sight.

-McNabb continues to have a monster season: 28-43 (65%), 376 yards, 4 TD’s … So far this season he’s completing 65% of his passes, and has a TD-INT ratio of 13-3. If Donovan continues at his current pace he’ll throw for a little under 4,700 yards this season. His previous career high in yardage was the 3,365 yards he threw in 2000, a number he is halfway to eclipsing already.

Why so little MVP talk? Donovan is third in the NFL in QB rating. He will probably throw for 3,500 – 4,000 yards this season, and due to the Eagles anemic ground game, he is the focal point of the Eagles attack. Donovan was runner-up in the MVP voting in ’00 because he was the Eagles entire offense. He’s dramatically improved this season in accuracy and he’s a bigger play threat now.

-Next: the Ravens. Snort. No offense to Baltimore fans, but this team is incompetent on offense. Even with Jamal Lewis they look terrible. Without, they look worse. Call this one:

Eagles 24
Ravens 3

Other games: I was disappointed to see the Jets fall to the pats 13-7. I really thought that they’d have momentum and win it … What was the deal with the Falcons? They play well on defense and then give up eight rushing touchdowns? Yikes! … And the Seahawks! 3-0 and looking good, leading the Rams by 17 with five minutes left, and … POOF! There their season goes. They are 3-3 right now and fortunate that the Rams lost to the Dolphins yesterday. Suddenly the NFC playoff picture looks a little murkier: the Rams and Seahawks look weak, the Falcons looked awful, and Packers are struggling back into the hunt … the only strong teams in the NFC right now are the Vikings and Eagles. If they turn out to be competing for home-field, that Week 2 Monday Night win is going to loom large.

I hate to say it, but the AFC is a lot stronger: the Jets, Pats, Steelers, Jags, Colts and Broncos are all elite teams. The NFC teams look a lot weaker.

With all of the attention given to the Red Sox incredible comeback over the Yankees in the ALCS, it doesn't surprise me that football has gotten ignored these last two weeks. This weekend us Eagles fans will be glued to the tube to watch the Eagles-Browns game, but up in Foxboro, Massachusetts, the Jets and Patriots will flash in yet another Boston-New York battle of the titans. It will be a good game, likely decidied by the Jets revitalized offensive attack. I predict:

Jets 24, Patriots 21

A little pay-back for New York sports fans. Either way it will be a good game.

We all have interests outside of football and the Eagles (and no, I’m not talking about the Phillies). I read a lot (or at least I used to): no surprise I had few friends in high school, because I was the kid that sat there and read for hours and hours and hours. Today I don’t as much, in part because I read things all day in law school and studying for the bar, and in part because I don’t have the time anymore to devote to sitting down and actually bothering to flip open a book. There are a few writers I consider to be worth my time: Christopher Buckley is one whose every book is a joy to read. Buckley, the son conservative intellectual William F. Buckley, is a terrific writer of satirical novels about the tobacco industry (Thank You For Smoking), the alien-abduction community (Little Green Men), and political memoirs (The White House Mess). He just got done writing Florence of Arabia, a satirical novel about the Middle East. I’ve read the excerpts in The Atlantic Monthly (Part I here, Part II here), and they are hilarious. Buckley has a wryly cynical writing that locks onto people / figure that are pompous and self-important and blows them out of the water. Check out the excerpts or buy the book.

The big subplot to the Browns - Eagles game this weekend is the "showdown" of sorts between T.O. and Jeff Garcia. The two didn't see eye-to-eye in San Francisco, and they've hardly buried the hatchet now. Mostly, it is all about T.O.'s unhappiness over Garcia not forcing him the ball more in SF.

While I love what T.O. has done for the Eagles offense this season, some of his comments about Garcia were below the belt and immature. You just worry, with all of T.O.'s talk, that he's going to fire up Garcia and have him play the game of his life. I guess we'll see.

Last week: 11-3; Season-to-date: 40-16

I know that the NFL is getting second-billing to the MLB Playoffs (when did that happen?), but there are a slate of good games coming up, first and foremost being the big Jets - Patriots game. Here are my picks:

Baltimore over Buffalo; yawn
Carolina over San Diego; Carolina needs this one to stay alive.
Jaguars over Colts; upset special. Jags, don't let me down!
Atlanta over Kansas City; Chiefs season is over & it looks like the AFC South belongs to the Falcons.
St. Louis over Miami; a reverse of the 1972 season? 0-16 for the '04 Dolphins?
Minnesota over Tennessee; what's wrong with the Titans? And who would have thought that the NFC North would be so interesting?
Detroit over NY Giants; first chink in the Giants armor.
Chicago over Tampa Bay; I suppose someone has to win. Memo to Jon Gruden: when you team is aging, don't bring in veterans!
Seattle over Arizona; Seattle starts its rehab with a win over the Cards. Rice's first game away from a Bay Area team.
Green Bay over Dallas; Packers righten ship, make NFC North interesting.
Saints over Raiders; yawn II
Bengals over Broncos; a mild upset. The Bengals need this game because there is no way they can salvage their season after a 1-5 start.
Jets over Patriots; Yeah, I'm going with the Jets! I think this weekend is the Pats end of the road. The Jets are well-coached, tough, disciplined, intelligent ... these guys can pull it off. Either way, it'll be a great game.
Eagles over Browns; 6-0!

Having lived in Pittsburgh for the last nine years I’ve watched plenty of Steelers – Browns games on TV here in Pittsburgh. (Cleveland and Pittsburgh, separated by a few hours of roadways and some dying steel towns, are forever comparing one to the other. Two cities more alike than they’d care to admit.) This is supposedly, one of the great rivalries in pro football, right up there with Cowboys-Redskins, Chiefs-Raiders and Bears-Packers.

I’d don’t see it.

It is pretty one-sided rivalry: the Steelers typically demolish the Browns, or the Browns blow golden opportunities to beat them. Who remembers the Browns blowing the big fourth quarter lead in the '02 playoffs? The passion to beat the Stillers isn’t matched by the Browns abilities. For whatever reason, this franchise can’t win (e.g., the '87, '88, and '90 AFC title games). It had to go to Baltimore and change its name to win the Super Bowl.

So this will be an easy victory, right? 6-0? Wrong. This has all of the ear-marks of an ambush: the better team rolling into town with some nagging doubts (the play of the Eagles offense these last two games), the seemingly inferior team coming out to greet them. Of course, the Browns are 3-0 at home, having beaten the Redskins and Ravens (and the Bengals). Oh, and the Browns 1-2 duo of Green and Suggs are starting to have success pounding the ball on the ground against an Eagles run defense that was spotty last week. Oh, and Jeff Garcia beat the Eagles last year with the ‘Niners.

Uh-oh.

Relax. I still think that the Eagles will win. The Browns are okay. Not bad, but not great either. The Eagles were fortunate to dodge having to face Kellen Winslow, Jr., this year. This guy is like Jeremy Shockey, but with an IQ. Garcia is crafty and tough, but the Browns lack the weapons to keep pace with the Eagles. If the game turns into a shoot-out, then the Eagles will run away with it. But that won’t happen: they shouldn’t get more than a few points against the Eagles defense, which has bent-but-not-broken all season long.

Defensively, the Browns are okay. Their good 18.8 points allowed a game is somewhat flawed in that they gave up just 3 points to the offensively challenged Ravens in Week 1. They’ve given up a lot of yards on the ground and in the air. T.O. will probably have some fun against the Browns corners and you had better believe he’ll be playing at full-throttle with the opportunity to show-up his archrival, Mr. Garcia. It is also worth remembering that the last team McNabb played the Browns he cut them apart, for 23 of 36 and 4 TD’s.

Close one: Eagles 21, Browns 20

The Inquirer's Bob Brookover and an AP Sports writer chime in with some thoughts on the Eagles sluggish offense the last two weeks.

What disturbed me, after reading Brookover's article, were T.O.'s complaints that he had been open for much of the game. Remember his screaming matches with Jeff Garcia when Garcia didn't get the ball to him as often as he liked? Is this the beginning of the end of T.O.'s honeymoon in Philly?

The outcome was hardly a surprise (I see that a whopping 94% of Yahoo!’s pick ‘em participants picked the Eagles to win), but it was sort of a nice thing to see the Eagles even up the score from last January’s NFC title game. It was hardly a fair fight: the Eagles have vastly improved themselves, while the Panthers looked like a shell of the team that came within three points of winning the Super Bowl. Still, a win is a win, and this win elevated the Eagles to 5-0, one of just three undefeated teams left in the NFL.

-T.O. was right in saying that the Eagles offense didn’t play well. While T.O. had a terrific day on paper (123 receiving yards always looks good), all of his yards came on plays in the first half. The Eagles managed just ten first downs. 42 of the Eagles 81 rushing yards came from Westbrook’s TD run in the fourth quarter which iced the game. Here is a sobering thought: of the Eagles 283 yards of offense, 146 came on just three plays: T.O.’s 53 and 51 yard catches, and Westbrook’s TD run. That’s 51%. Not good. Luckily, those plays led (directly and indirectly) to 17 points.

-What happened to the Eagles wideouts? After the first drive Pinkston practically disappeared from the game. Eagles not wearing #81 had just 86 yards receiving. That’s pathetic. Those stats remind me of the bad old days when McNabb would be drilling Thrash in the hands, only to see him drop it.

-And what happened to the running game? Throw out Westbrook’s run and the Eagles had just 2 yards a carry. Is Westbrook running down already?

-This game really was the defense’s day: two sacks, four picks, and no real big plays given up. Again, Kearse was a key: Jake Delhomme may have completed 24 throws, but he was pressured and harried all day long and he took some brutal hits. Thanks to the pressure from Kearse & Co., the Panthers averaged just 4.2 yards a pass (the Eagles: 7.5) … And hats off to Lito Shepard for a terrific performance on the corner. I’ve been a doubter, but he came through with two picks. Nice job.

Last year the offense carried the team. This year it is the defense. Lots of Pro Bowlers back there.

-Next up, the 3-3 Cleveland Browns a team that is 0-3 on the road and 3-0 at home. Ominously, the Eagles have to travel to the Mistake by the Lake (as Pittsburghers derisively refer to Cleveland as) for this game. Could this be the dead-knell for the Eagles quest for an undefeated season? It has all of the ear-marks of an upset game, given that the Eagles will have to travel to enemy territory and face off with a team that is playing much better than their record indicates, while the Eagles offense appears to be stalling a little. I still say the Eagles win, but it is a nail-biter: Eagles 21, Browns 20

(Oh, and who did the Eagles schedule? Three in a row against the AFC North, three in a row against the NFC North, three in a row against the NFC East? Balance!)

If the Eagles do survive, they’ll be just one of two 6-0 teams left in the NFL: the Jets-Pats showdown next Sunday will thin the ranks of the unbeaten one way or the other. If the Eagles can survive the coming games with the AFC North (Steelers, Ravens, and Browns) they’ll be sitting in the drivers seat. The Giants have tough games against the Vikings and Lions coming up, and the Cowboys and Redskins can’t afford to fall any further behind then they already are. At worst, the Eagles should be 6-2 (but more likely 7-1 or 8-0) going into the big Monday Night showdown in Dallas on November 15. As soon as the Eagles dispatch the Giants on November 28, the Eagles can start thinking of home field.

Jerry Rice wants out of Oakland? Seeing him pout about not getting a catch in a victory over the Bills a few weeks ago calls into question his heart and commitment to the game. Is his goal to get back to the Super Bowl or to obliterate the record book so badly Randy Moss and T.O. will have to play until they are 50 to break his records? If he's dealt to the Lions will he pout if they make it to the playoffs without his help?

Last week's record: 8-6! Season-to-date: 29-13!

Week 6:

Buffalo over Miami; the battle of the losers culminates with Buffalo's first win of the season. Miami continues to slide into the abyss.
Atlanta over San Diego; people in San Diego can see what they missed out on. The Chargers season looks like an audition from Drew Brees to be another team's starting QB. He'll be in Oakland in 2005, I bet.
Cincinnati over Cleveland; the battle for last place in the AFC North is joined. The Bengals have more weapons at their disposal, so they'll win it. Watching Jeff Garcia scramble around without any weapons on the field has been a little sad. Hey Butch Davis: give the poor guy a little help!
Washington over Chicago; I suppose someone has to win it. The Redskins have fewer flaws, so I give them the edge. Let's wait until the offseason, when Daniel Snyder will fire Joe Gibbs, shower money on high-priced veteran free agents and lure Steve Spurrier back into the fold...
Detroit over Green Bay; the race for the NFC North is quickly becoming a two-team race, and the Lions will hasten that along with a big win here. It is stunning to see how badly the Packers have fallen on hard times. The mystique of Lambeau is gone, Favre looks angry and confused ... what happened?
Jacksonville over Kansas City; I have a lot of faith in the Jags, but they seem to be slipping. I give them the edge here.
Seattle over New England; upset special. This is a critical game for the Seahawks after their humiliating 33-27 loss to the Rams. Not only do they need to win to keep ahead of the Rams, but they need a big win to buttress their shaky confidence. I think they can do it, and I bet that Hasselback will put on a show.
Jets over 49ers; The Jets and Eagles will emerge from Week 6 as the sole undefeateds. It won't be close.
Houston over Tennessee; hard not to be impressed by the Texans thus far in '04. Could this be the emergence of a new power in the AFC South?
Denver over Oakland;
St. Louis over Tampa Bay; remarkably the Buccaneers actually won the Super Bowl two years ago. The 2004 team has to struggle to beat the Saints. Chris Simms and Brian Greise might have impressive bloodlines, but the NFL isn't horse-racing. Neither of these guys have, or will, hack it in the NFL. Easy win for the Rams, bouyed by their shocking win over the Seahawks last week.
Minnesota over New Orleans; Culpepper and Moss will bomb the Saints for 400 yards of offense. It's still early yet though. Plenty of time for the Vikings to fall apart.
Pittsburgh over Dallas; I'm reluctant to call this a "must-win" game for the Cowboys, but if the Eagles win and they lose they will be three games behind the Eagles and probably finished from competing for the NFC East title. If the Cowboys fall, then the November 28th Eagles-Giants game is shaping up to be the NFC East's Appomattox.

Meanwhile, the Steelers continue to surprise. Homefield runs through Heinz Field? I can see it. They look like the AFC's best team, right now. They have an explosive passing game, terrific 1-2 rushing attack, and a hard-hitting defense. Ed Rendell might get his Steelers-Eagles Super Bowl wish.

Eagles over Panthers. 5-0, baby!

Nice article from the Inquirer's Shannon Ryan about the presence of Eagles players on the 'net. Any players checking out The Bird Blog?

When the 2004 schedule came out more than a few Eagles fans circled the October 17th game against the Panthers and pegged it as a critical game: Revenge, possible playoff implications (many of us assumed that the Panthers would be one of the teams competing against the Eagles for homefield), etc.

Revenge is still at the top of the list for most Eagles fans, but keeping the Eagles perfect season alive is now of paramount importance. Luckily, the Panthers look like a shell of the team they were in 2003, when their grinding, physical style powered them to the Super Bowl. Wideout Steve Smith is gone, DeShaun Foster is gone, a depleted Stephen Davis will be carrying the load solo, injuries in their defensive unit ... the Eagles have the clear edge in this matchup, coming off a bye week with few injuries to speak of. The Birds have the clear edge. Call it:

Eagles 24, Panthers 14

What a wild weekend in the NFL! The Patriots won their 19th consecutive game, the number of undefeated teams shrank to three (Eagles, Jets, Patriots) and the Seahawks completely blew it against the Rams …

I watched the Rams-Seahawks game and I was stunned by what I saw: the Seahawks stymied the Rams offense and held them to ten points for fifty-five minutes of the game, and then proceeded to give up 17 points in the last five minutes of OT, followed by a touchdown in the opening drive of overtime. If Ray Rhodes keeps his job over this in the off-season, he’ll be lucky …

Here in the NFC East the Ravens 17-10 win over the Redskins is very good news for the Eagles: at 1-4, the Redskins have little hope of chasing us for anything. As for the Cowboys: what is wrong with those guys this season? I thought they’d be the team to beat for the Eagles, but this season is shaping up to be a one-on-one duel between the Eagles and G-men. Speaking of which … count me as skeptical about the Giants 4-1 record. All it will take to put these guys down will be a big hit on Kurt Warner or something…

Watching the Falcons fall from the ranks of the unbeaten was enjoyable: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Michael Vick, for all of his flashiness, is maddeningly inconsistent and not a complete player. Yesterday, against the Lions, he threw for just 196 yards and rushed for just 29. He had no touchdowns and had three turnovers (two fumbles and an interception).

Congrats to the Pats on winning their 19th in a row! Classic victory for them: defense, defense, defense, timely throw by Brady. You've got to wonder: how long will that last?

I also watched the Steelers – Browns game. Duce had a terrific day, and this Rothlisberger [sic?] guy has played well for the Stillers. Even so, watching the game I was left to wonder if the victory was because of the Steelers ability, or the Browns incompetence. (I’ve watched the Browns play the Steelers for years now and every time I shake my head at the mental mistakes and bone-headed decisions the Browns make against their archrivals.)

Tonight … Titans and Pack.

Anyone going to watch the big games today? I can barely bring myself to watch my alma mater (Pitt), given how badly the Big East has fallen on hard times and how badly coach Walt Harris has been getting out-recruited and out-coached.

Today will be some big college football games, but the best one will be the Oklahoma - Texas showdown in Dallas at noon. I know that OU has beat Texas four consecutive years, but I have a good feeling about UT today. I go with Texas in the upset 24-21 ...

Oh, the bliss of the NFL bye week! Sitting down on your couch, secure in the knowledge that your team can't lose this week, which frees you up to become the dispassionate NFL fan, calmly identifying (and taking joy in) the foibles of the teams chasing your favorite team. With the Eagles taking the week off in preparation for facing off with the Panthers (snap prediction: the Eagles will easily beat the Panthers on October 17 thanks to the added week of preparation), Birds fans can relax and check out what the rest of the NFL is up to.

Week 4 predictions: 10-4.

Season to date: 21-7.

Week 5 predictions:

Detroit over Atlanta; the Falcons undefeated season comes to rest against the Lions...
Pittsburgh over Cleveland; Duce will have another big game for the Stillers ...
New England over Miami; 19 wins in a row
Tampa Bay over New Orleans; I guess this is an upset. Jon Gruden looking less like an genius these days...
Minnesota over Houston; I picked the Texans in upsets two weeks in a row, but the Vikes are too strong...
Indianapolis over Oakland ; yawn. Blowout.
Jacksonville over San Diego ; the battle of the surprising teams. I give the edge to the Jags...
Dallas over New York Giants; don't believe their 3-1 record. The Giants ain't that good. The Cowboys are better.
Seattle over St. Louis; if Seattle wins I don't see how the Rams can catch them.
New York Jets over Buffalo; are the Jets the strongest team in the AFC? I think they might be. I look forward to the first of the Jets - Patriots meetings.
Arizona over San Francisco; Larry Fitzgerald (Pitt alumnus) will have a big day. This guy is a super-star.
Carolina over Denver; mild upset. I like the Panthers grit over the Broncos, who still look weak to me...
Baltimore over Washington; the winner of the battle of the BW corridor will be the Ravens, based on their defense. Their offense continues to resemble a Pop Warner football team.

Green Bay over Tennessee; this is the game of the week for the simple fact that the loser's season is essentially finished. No way a team can start 1-4 and hope to make the playoffs.

Ricky Williams wants back in Miami, despite ditching the team late in the preseason? Chalk this up to being the 5,682nd odd thing Ricky Williams has done or said in his NFL career. I somehow doubt that he'll be welcomed back with open arms, even with how desparate the Dolphins are for a running game with their 0-4 start that has effectively ended their season.

Can't trust him...

Jamal Lewis conspired to help set up a drug deal in 2000? The NFL, if it had any backbone, should throw the book at Lewis and ban him from the game for a year or more. He's an admitted felon, a criminal who participated in a cocaine deal. (And give me a break with the youthful indescretion defense: he was 20 years old.) How can the league pretend their players are role-models when they are coke-dealing felons? Pro sports turns a blind eye to criminals in their midst too much. Jamal Lewis' crimes go too far.

Friday Night Lights comes out tomorrow. Terrific story by a Philadelphia Inquirer writer about how a small town in Texas lost its soul worshipping at the altar of high school football. Buy (and read) the book.

I would recommend reading Gregg Easterbrook's Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on NFL.com this week, except that Mr. Easterbrook has sadly avoided mentioning the Birds in his weekly wrap-up of the NFL. Even despite that glaring omission, TMQB is still worthwhile reading.

I've been a fan of Easterbrook for years. He's written terrific articles for The New Republic and The Atlantic Monthly (his attack on SUVs in the New Republic last year was so insightful and interesting that I quoted it in a paper I was writing for law school). He brings a very different eye to the game of football: an intellectual's delight in the hidden complexities of a game that many would write-off as a bunch of guys knocking the crap out of each other.

(Intellectual dissertations of football aren't new, even for the Atlantic: the Philadelphia Inquirer's Mark Bowden, author of Killing Pablo and Blackhawk Down, is a frequent Atlantic Monthly contributor and wrote a terrific profile of Eagles Center Hank Fraley detailing Fraley's mental preparation for the game for the magazine's January / February issue.)

Easterbrook also seems to have a thing for the Eagles cheerleaders. So he's a good guy. Read him.

After finishing second in the MVP voting to Marshall Faulk in 2000, Eagles fans have been waiting for the NFL to give Donovan his due but the NFL publicity machine has favored the flashier Michael Vick as its premier QB. While Vick has been so-so as the Falcons signal-caller (the Falcons strong 4-0 start due to their stifling defensive unit), so far McNabb's stellar performance matches the Eagles formitable 4-0 record. What are Donovan's numbers?

McNabb is presently:

4th in completion percentage (68%)

3rd in QB rating (after Culpepper and Manning at 110.5)

2nd in TD passes with 9 (after Manning's 11)

and 1st in yards with 1,168 (ahead of Manning)

The MVP race is shaping up to be a two-horse race...

A nice article from the Inquirer's Bob Brookover about the Eagles soaring 4-0 start. Based on what we've seen I think that the Eagles can go to the Super Bowl, they can go to the NFC title game, they can win the division, and they can make the playoffs, but I agree with Brookover: this team won't go 19-0. They'll lose, and I have my money on the Steelers game November 7 as their first loss. By that point they should be 7-0 and so far ahead of the rest of the field they can absorb the temporary hit.

This team can beat the Panthers because it is faster and, thanks to Kearse, tougher than last year.

This team can beat the Browns because the Browns lack the weapons to keep up with the Eagles, especially now that Kellen Winslow is gone for the year.

This team can beat the Ravens because Kyle Boller isn't an NFL quarterback.

If this team can get past the Steelers, the sky is the limit.

The Eagles should be a lock to win every game except the one against the Vikings, so they should be 3-1 or 4-0 heading into the bye.

So I said on August 27, just before the start of the Eagles 2004 season. Sure enough, on October 4, Eagles fans wake up to see their team 4-0, heading into a bye. The team looking to greet them on the other side is the increasingly weak 1-2 Carolina Panthers, who were absolutely dominated by Vick and the Falcons yesterday.

This morning there are just five undefeated teams left in the NFL, and few would seriously say that the Eagles aren't playing the best, or near the best, of all of them. Let's break sunday down:

The good: Critics said that the McNabb - T.O. partnership would never work because McNabb was too inaccurate to be the efficient passer that T.O. needs. After four games McNabb is hitting at 68% and has connected on 26 passes to T.O. for six touchdowns.

Does Brian Westbrook remind anyone else of Marshall Faulk in '99, when he rushed for 1,000 yards and caught passes for 1,000 yards? With 206 yards recieving and 347 yards rushing, Westbrook is on his way to having a banner year.

Remember when the Eagles couldn't stop anyone on the ground last year? They gave up just 32 yards to the NFC's top rusher yesterday. For the season, the Eagles are giving up just 89 yards a game. Big improvement over '03.

While officially he only got one tackle yesterday, Jevon Kearse was a real wrecking ball on the defensive front, enabling the Birds to pressure poor Mr. Quinn all day long and sack him four times. Have to wonder what he's going to do against the Panthers in two weeks.

The bad: Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston continue to disappoint: a combined 4 catches for 46 yards. Boys, you need to step it up in a big way. With T.O. drawing the double-teams with the safety, you should be free to work some magic on the outside.

The ugly: durability is going to become an issue with Westbrook soon. I was happy to see Andy Reid give Levens some work yesterday, but with Westbrook catching passes left and right and running hard up the middle, is he going to be 100% for the playoffs? (Or even 70%?)

Now, a bye, that most magical of weekends when you get to relax and see what the rest of the NFL is up to. After that the Eagles gave games against teams that look fairly weak this year, the Browns and Panthers. Can't see why the Eagles won't be 6-0 going into the heart of their schedule.

Last week: 11-3

Week 4:

Patriots 28, Bills 10; pity Drew Bledsoe
Redskins 13, Browns 9
Packers 24, Giants 23
Colts 37, Jaguars 30; the Jags run stops here …
Texans 17, Raiders 13
Steelers 31, Bengals 23; interesting game to see how Big Ben plays against a better team than the offensively inept Dolphins …
Cardinals 20, Saints 17; upset special
Panthers 10, Falcons 7; Vick-for-MVP bandwagon takes a hit …
Jets 31, Dolphins 9
Titans 21, Chargers 20; the Titans need a win, and fast …
Broncos 33, Buccaneers 10; Gruden looks less like a genius these days …
Rams 45, 49ers 3; Zzzzz …. Why does ESPN get so many snoozers on Sunday Night Football?
Chiefs 16, Ravens 14; desperation game for the Chiefs. They must win.

Eagles 34, Bears 6; no disrespect to Bears fans, but their team looks awful on offense. It has for years. This will be a close game for the first 2-3 quarters, but the Bears defense will break down in the fourth quarter and the Eagles will storm to a convincing win. The Eagles are much more balanced, and T.O. should score a TD or two against their depleted secondary.

With their 30-13 win yesterday the Eagles advanced to 3-0 and entered some fairly rarified air. The Birds have never begun better than 1-1 with Andy Reid in charge, which means that the team is entering into uncharted territory even for them. First, a few numbers I thought interesting:

Number of undefeated NFL teams left: 6

There are four 3-0 squads now (Eagles, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Seattle) and the 2-0 Patriots and Jets, who were idle this past weekend. Not many undefeateds left on the map, so the '72 Dolphins have to be breathing a little easier than usual this year. I’ve seen a lot of 16-0 talk thrown around in the Wingheads forum, but lets keep things in perspective here: wait until we get to 6-0 or 7-0 before we start all of that. If we are undefeated going into the Steelers game on November 7, we’ve got a shot …

McNabb’s rank in QB rating after three weeks: 3

McNabb’s completion percentage after three weeks: 69.8%

Take that, Rush Limbaugh.

I was stunned when I heard about what the conservative radio pundit had said on ESPN’s NFL Countdown last year and baffled by it: since when has the media in Philly given anyone a free ride? ( Mind you, I was hardly surprised Rush got his info wrong: a media group once examined the “facts” the pill-popping pundit cited in a six-month period of his show in ’94 and found that 37% of them were wrong.) But it was shocking stuff and I was positive the media whirlwind was something that would dog McNabb and the Eagles all season long…

In any case, McNabb proved himself countless times before his ’03 slump: he carried the team in ’00 without Duce and played big in critical games. Now McNabb is having a stellar season: to those who complained he wasn’t accurate enough, he’s completing about 70% of his throws. He’s accounted for ten touchdowns (eight in the air, two by ground) and zero turnovers. He’s thrown for nearly 1,000 yards already. For all of the media’s fascination with the flashy Michael Vick, McNabb is the true field general, the consistent performer week in and week out. QB rating:

McNabb: 122.0 / 2 nd in NFC
Vick: 81.1 / 10 th in NFC

Touchdowns:

McNabb: 10
Vick: 2

Who’s the more viable MVP candidate after three weeks?

T.O.’s catches: 18; Eagle TE’s: 23

I thought that the biggest beneficiary of T.O.’s presence was going to be Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell, but both have caught just 11 balls combined playing on the opposite side of T.O. The true beneficiares have been the Eagles tight ends, Mike Bartrum, L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis. Together they have caught 23 passes for 269 yards (11.7 average) and three TD’s.

Thoughts on the game …

I thought it was a fairly impressive effort by the Eagles, even though I suspected that the Lions were slightly over-rated going in.

One player who was not over-rated with rookie wideout Roy Williams, who accounted for 135 of the Lions 256 net yards. Wow. He was the beneficiary of some awful tackling on his second touchdown (more on that later), but that was a command performance he delivered yesterday.

On the balance the Eagles did a great job: they aired it out and put the Lions behind the eight ball early and played some tough defense. The secondary’s inability to stop Williams was discouraging and makes you fear what could happen in a playoff game against Randy Moss, Williams or Tory Holt, but the defense played very well. They gave up just 256 net yards of offense, despite the fact that the Lions began two drives in Eagles territory.

Offensively, I didn’t care for how little the Eagles ran the ball (Westbrook had just 44 yards on 13 carries), but why run why you can fly through your opponent? McNabb was averaging 12.3 yards every time he attempted to throw the ball. As I said earlier, McNabb is on his way to laying claim to the MVP crown again. The only other QB playing as well right now is Peyton Manning.

Next: da Bears! No disrespect to fans in the Windy City (you guys deserve better than Rex Grossman), but we should go 4-0 …

Pitt 41, Furman 38

My alma mater squeeked by a Division I-AA school in OT ... Grrr ...

Before I talk a little about the Eagles I’m going to write a little about my wedding / honeymoon. Anyone who reads my Phillies blog can skip to the bottom, because they've read this before ...

My wife and I married at 2:30 PM on Saturday, September 4, 2004 in Natrona Heights, PA. Our wedding went well, aside from an embarrassing incident involving alcohol and a fight with a relative of mine and a guest (don’t ask). Everyone had a terrific time and the pictures and videos we got back have been terrific. My wife looked beautiful in her wedding gown. My best man gave a terrific toast that was so nice that I can hear a relative of my wife’s remarking on one tape: “What a great friend…” Both families seemed to have a terrific time, and despite the fact that it was a 300+ mile drive from Philly to Pittsburgh, I had a lot of family at the church and reception. I had the time of my life.

We left two days later we left for the first leg in our journey: we flew to San Francisco and spent a day and two halves in the city by the Bay. SF is gorgeous: the Bay is crystal blue, with white sails from sailing ships dotting the horizon. We cruised the Bay, ate at Pier 39, visited the Bay Aquarium, and toured the Ripley’s Believe-It-Or-Not! Museum. On Wednesday we left for Oahu. We did our honeymoon as part of a tour group, which was fun. We got to stay at terrific hotels and ate at stellar restaurants.

On Oahu we did all of the touristy stuff: the U.S.S. Arizona Memorial (very, very evocative moment to be standing there, thinking about the over 1,000 sailors who died when the battleship blew up), the Punchbowl National Cemetary, the Polynesian Cultural Center (very interesting and very worthwhile if you get a chance: the students who perform are very talented), etc. We stayed at the Hyatt in Waikiki Beach, which offered a terrific view of the local area. Waikiki is an interesting place (lots of Japanese tourists) and a good beach: very soft surf. I saw people swimming at midnight there.

We left and spent three days on Kauai. I liked our hotel a lot (the Sheraton Kauai at Poipu Beach): it had a gorgeous view of the pool and beach and was situated just forty or so yards from Poipu Beach itself. Kauai is nice but a little too rural and quiet. We had fun doing a helicopter tour of the island (if you go to Kauai you must do it: the views of the island are sensational), but we weren’t that sorry to go. For one thing, while Poipu is nice, I don’t understand why people rave about it the way they do.

Maui, on the other hand … my wife practically cried when we left there. The beach (Ka’anapaali) is like something out of a post-card and Maui itself is just the right mix between quiet and solitude and activity that you could never get bored there. Plus, our hotel (Hyatt Maui) was a palace. Anyway, we did a lot: we snorkeled (I have a cool picture of my wife swimming with a sea turtle), took a trip to Mount Haleakala [sic?], and explored Ka’anapaali.

We got back and found out that the Pittsburgh area got hit with six inches of rain last Friday, which flooded the rivers and left people’s boats laying on the sides of roads and flooded people out of house and home. My wife and I were fortunate that we live on a hill in an apartment complex, but others lost everything. (one of my wife’s bridesmaids’ family house got about six inches of water in the basement.) It was been very tragic to see.

On to football. It isn't surprising to see the Eagles at 2-0, but they've looked a lot better than I think a lot of people expected them to be. Defensively, Kearse has been everything the Eagles wanted when they signed him in the off-season. Let's see if they can keep it going in the battle between the 2-0 teams ...

This week’s predictions:

Steelers 17, Dolphins 7; Big Ben starts for the Steelers. He'll do well.

Falcons 35, Cardinals 13; Vick for MVP?

Ravens 13, Bengals 6

Texans 24, Chiefs 14; my upset special

Vikings 28, Bears 3

Giants 23, Browns 7; a pity Winslow got injured. The Browns have little-to-no chance of doing anything now.

Rams 33, Saints 10

Titans 16, Jaguars 13; a good test for the Jags.

Broncos 31, Chargers 0

Seahawks 34, 49ers 7

Colts 21, Packers 14; I predicted a rough season for Favre & Co...

Buccaneers 19, Raiders 16

Cowboys 24, Redskins 21

And the Eagles game …

Eagles 27, Lions 20; with all due respect to the Lions, wins against the Bears and Texans aren’t a real test. The Eagles should be able to hit Harrington early and often given the lack of a ground game in the Motor City. The Lions defense also looks a little soft. I’m pretty confident that McNabb could throw for 300 yards this Sunday. Look for T.O. to get a TD: he’ll be motivated to show up his old coach.

Check out this terrific article about Jevon Kearse I saw on the AP page. What a great pickup! (So far the Birds braintrust look like geniuses.)

The apartment a mess, still adjusting from being on Hawaiian time, I sat down to watch the Eagles-Vikings game on Monday Night Football deeply excited, and not just because I found the bamboo chime I bought on Kauai in my suitcase which makes a cool “clunk-clunk” sound: living in Pittsburgh I am essentially at the mercy of the NFL’s scheduling committee as to when I get to watch the Eagles: I get the Steelers, or a local game affecting them (Browns, Ravens, Bengals) unless the Birds are on Sunday Night, Saturday, or MNF. This year, as in years past, the birds get 3 MNF slots, and I couldn’t be happier. On to the game …

My biggest fear going into the game was Randy Moss. As has been discussed, dissected and moaned about at length, the Birds corners are small and inexperienced. Going up against the NFL super-receiver (nice to see him so motivated to bother to try and earn his millions these days) scared me. I’m pleased to say that the Eagles defensive scheme did a terrific job containing him: eight catches, 69 yards. Moss’s longest catch was just 22 yards, pretty paltry from a guy who can break a big one on every play. The Eagles bend-but-don’t-break scheme kept the Vikings frustrated and unable to cash in their opportunities: the Vikes kept swinging the ball out into the flat, expecting their guy to catch the ball, break a tackle and go for the big score, and it never happened. The Eagles secondary cleanly made tackles and bottled up everything (Lito Shepard and Sheldon Brown had a combined 20 tackles). It was a performance to be pleased with.

The Eagles offense is harder to analyze: they held onto the ball for just over 22 minutes. McNabb was the offensive star: he threw the ball with a lot of zip and accuracy (season-to-date completion percentage: 70%) and ran at opportune moments. Great performance. Westbrook, aside from the fumble, did great: 128 yards despite just 17 touches (12 carries, 5 catches). Well on his way to being an “A-back”.

T.O.? Not like last week, eh? With the Birds 2-0, I think he’ll stay happy having “just” one TD.

Other thoughts:

Looks like the strategy of using Kearse to up-grade the pass-protection scheme worked: the Vikings couldn’t throw deep all night long, which prevented the Vikings from getting to utilize their size/height advantage (aside from Moss’ TD). Let's hope this works against the Rams.

What did I say about Culpepper being turnover-prone?: I remember the historian Doris Kearns Goodwin saying, in reference to a critical catch in the 1955 World Series that heralded the Brooklyn Dodgers victory, that there are plays which you know portend certain victory or defeat, you just know your team will win / lose when the play happens. The Culpepper fumble was that play. When the Birds stripped him at the goal line, I knew they’d win the game. Simple as that.

The Eagles rushing defense did a terrific job: Smith had just 28 yards on ten carries and, as a team, they had just 78 yards.

You have to love Reed’s kick-returns: looks like the Eagles recent skill in finding terrific return guys continues (Mitchell to Westbrook to Reed).

Next up for the Eagles: the improved Lions and the Bears. No reason to think the Birds can’t be 4-0, going into the Panthers game on October 17.

The Eagles are just one of seven 2-0 teams. Think about that.

Tonight's game will be an interesting test for the Eagles corners to see how they'll handle (arguably) the most dangerous wideout in the game. The key will to be the Eagles ability to get to Dante Culpepper: he is turnover-prone and inconsistent. I wonder how good the Vikings vaunted defensive upgrades will look against an offense that (from what I heard) looked very good against the G-men. I was stunned when I saw how throughly McNabb & TO picked them apart.

I didn't get to see much of the Eagles game in Hawaii. I watched a little of the Falcons - 49ers game on Kauai last sunday while Katherine & I were getting ready to hit Poipu beach. It was odd to watch the "later" games start at 10:00 AM ...

More later...